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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 06-27-2012, 06:20 PM   #106
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
OP play me heads up for $10k

im sure you can get spotted the money by your parents tell them youve studied hard

ill respect your raises, i promise
Pretty sure you would have to get the money spotted by your parents young buck. According to your bio your 19 years old and homeless.
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:29 PM   #107
 
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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Why hasnt this thread been locked?
When it loses its entertainment value, it will be.
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Old 06-27-2012, 07:38 PM   #108
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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Originally Posted by fml95 View Post
Pretty sure you would have to get the money spotted by your parents young buck. According to your bio your 19 years old and homeless.
lol if i talked to my parents i wouldnt be homeless

ill just show one of the 20 loan offices in this area this thread and theyll give me the money
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Old 06-27-2012, 09:29 PM   #109
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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OP seriously gtfo, this is turning into your blog or something. Why hasnt this thread been locked?
cause it's still funny.
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Old 06-27-2012, 09:42 PM   #110
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OP -> if you can figure out how to safely remove bumbs from balls you might be able to get up to $5K in sack seed money for your quest. You might need to throw in an impersonated Dear John phone call to a fat girl as well though.

GL
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:42 AM   #111
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

if you're gonna do this you need a spreadsheet.

Last edited by jmister; 06-28-2012 at 12:42 AM. Reason: return of BandiChime
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:44 AM   #112
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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Old 06-28-2012, 03:50 AM   #113
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

OP, I think this is a great idea, and I'm in. I'd like to reserve any and all action up to $5000. Please start shipping in $500 increments so I know you're serious. Will PM my account info...
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Old 06-28-2012, 05:03 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by vookenmeister View Post
OP -> if you can figure out how to safely remove bumbs from balls you might be able to get up to $5K in sack seed money for your quest. You might need to throw in an impersonated Dear John phone call to a fat girl as well though.

GL
Gold.
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Old 06-28-2012, 05:49 AM   #115
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

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Whenever I have children I will tell them all about you, then inform them this is how they will turn out if they don't work hard in school
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Is this really necessary?
Love it!
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Old 06-28-2012, 08:59 AM   #116
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

I value folded KK twice yesterday, and was right both times, since this same guy showed respectively 59 and 22, so when both of these equities are added together, we are not that big of a favorite, and when we do get sucked out on, we lose our entire stack, which is clearly negative EV. Very good strategy OP, certainly reduces variance a lot. I also believe that we should fold our AA hands at least 1 in 4 times, so to reduce variance and completely eliminate that 20%ish percent opponents have against us at the showdown. If your BR is very small, it gets closer to 1 in 3, but you have to be careful not to be too nitty, because at some point you have to put that money in with your aces and hope for the best.

This thread could potentially revolutionize poker as a game, keep it up.
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:01 PM   #117
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

Here is my update (not going to do many of these) - see my twitter for more frequent updates:

https://twitter.com/10to00k


Currently have $1.28 and €2.34 - which is $4.18. Let me summarize a couple of things since the start of this thread.

1) I started betting for value way, WAY too early. (When I was up 20% versus my buy-in). This was inexcusable. Initially, I was happy every time I got a call - loads of thick value. But with this few buyins to work with, that wasn't good at all. I hit rock bottom soon and was clawing my way back up.

2) I thought the lowest level I could win at was $0.10. I asked here in the forum about beating hyper-turbo tourneys (where the buyin is $0.02) and got great answers! I tried a few, four I think, and placed in one, winning $0.10 - which would be a 400% ROI on my $0.02, if not for the ones I didn't place in.

What is important here is that I'm not sure I'm a winning player at that stake, but at least now I have a shot with some new techniques.

So the way I would break down my goals with the current $4.18 or so is as follows:

$2 is reserved for 100 bi's at the $0.02 hyper-turbos. I expect that I may not be a winning player (positive ROI) until doing dozens and dozens of them, even though I have now placed.

So rather than "only" reserving 60 or however many against variance, I'm reserving the rest of the hundred just because I may be a losing player.

The point is I would be protected from going busto, by playing the $0.02 tourneys until I grind out enough wins to take a shot at the $0.10 tourneys, where I'm more consistent.

That leaves $2.18, which is 21 bi's at the $0.10 tourneys. However, I don't think I need that many to have a positive ROI, as I do quite well in them.

So, I am reserving $1.00 for ten $0.10 bi's. It's possible I would drop all ten (lose a net ten and be down to $2) - that would mean I have to move down to the $0.02 tourneys as outlined above.

Of course, I would be quite motivated to win the $0.10 tourneys as grinding out $0.02 tourneys is a nightmare. It's my final cushion.

Finally, that leaves $1.18 for me to currently work with: a single buyin at $1.

This is what I was speaking about earlier in terms of "taking a shot".

The above three steps are EXACTLY what I would be doing at a higher level as well. Optimistically moving up. (The difference here is that I expect I'm already "really" a winner at $1 bi.)

Also, $1 is, obviously, ten times as much as $0.10 and one is a tourney one is cash, so it's not fully reflective of my stepping-up program.

How do you work with a SINGLE buy-in?

Well, I have a few tricks for this as well. This might also transfer to taking shot at much higher stakes if I manage to successfully grind my way up.

The main points boil down to:

-> Reduce. Variance.

How do you do that? By leaving value behind, for one thing. For another, by investing more energy into variance-reducing activities, such as....reading hands.

Obviously if all of your opponents are playing with their hands face-up (though they don't know this) then you could have close to 0 variance. A single buy-in, if you refuse to go all-in with less than the nuts, could easily be turned into larger winnings.

I will let you know with more updates on how this is going.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/10to00k

Highlight: Learning how to beat $0.02 hyper-turbos by asking here.

Lowlight: Starting to value-bet with less than 15 bi's.

Stepping-up/stepping-down program:
< $2 remaining (up to $2.10). Do nothing but $0.02 tourneys ($2 = 100 bi's) until having at least $2.10

At least $2.10 (up to $3): grind out $0.10 tourneys until I have another $1 for another swing at $1 bi.

At least $3 (current situation): take another swing at $1 bi with variance-reducing ploys; also rathole winnings. (e.g. if my stack size reaches $1.60, leave and enter another room with $1).

Many many variance-reducing ploys go here.

Bankroll management in practice - yes, you can do it even with $4.10

Last edited by sharkguy2; 06-28-2012 at 12:19 PM.
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:11 PM   #118
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

HOF
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:12 PM   #119
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

Now that I think of it. I think every single person reading this is jealous of your bankroll management so early in your poker career....cause all of us had NON and blasted 100s+1k++ before we realized what BR is all about
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:18 PM   #120
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Re: Year-long prop bet ($10 into $100,000)

With all the time you spend posting all these updates and playing $0.02 tournaments couldn't you get a real job and deposit a real bankroll after saving up some money? Since you can afford a computer with an internet connection and know English I assume you live in a country where you can find opportunities to make more than a few cents an hour.
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