Two Plus Two Poker Forums Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)
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 Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

07-02-2012, 11:40 AM   #196
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 125
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Likewise if you have an investment of \$1000 in stock that you would like to turn into \$100,000 it's not enough to find a stock that goes up in price from \$50 per share to \$1000 per share. Even though that is a \$950/share increase in price, it is only a 20x increase as a percentage; so if you bought in at \$1000 you now have \$20,000 and you still have to multiply that by 5 to get to your goal. Logarithmically, then, you could say that 1,000->20,000 got you 4/5th to your goal, and a remaining 1/5th (a further 4x compared to your already done 20x) will get you there entirely.
I think I made a mistake here, which shows how useful logarithms are. On my own penny scale the movement are:
\$1000 starting investment = 16.60
\$20,000 stage = 20.93
\$100,000 goal = 23.25

So you made 20.93-16.6 = 4.33 out of a goal of 23.25 - 16.6 = 6.65.

4.33 / 6.65 = about two thirds (0.65 to be exact), or less than the four fifths I'd assumed. You made 1/5th of the journey in terms of ABSOLUTE MONEY (\$20,000 when you need \$100,000) but logarithmically you did FAR better, as you're two thirds of the way there. You don't have to find as spectacular a stock to make it to \$100,000 from \$20,000 as you had to to make it from \$20,000 from \$1,000. As you can see the movement logarithmically is considerably less between 20.93 and 23.25 as it was between 16.6 and 20.93 - and this makes sense if you think about it properly.

While the exact number you're at on my scale depends on the logarithm you use, the ratios don't - so I don't know what Nate used to get to his 1/7th, but I repeated his calculation with my own base and got the same result. Likewise, if my calculation above are correct that the \$20k investment from \$1k is 2/3rds the way there to \$100k on the logarithmic scale, then this is correct in any base.

It makes sense if you think about it. If you purchase a certain amount of stock in any company, you don't care how many dollars it moves up or down - only the percentage that it does.

07-02-2012, 11:42 AM   #197
newbie

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 19
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rakemeplz
I'm sorry but this just had me laughing for about 5 mins straight.

OP you have obviously done your homework and read a lot of books on strategy. Reducing variance CAN be done, like you said value folding is a very good option.

You are over the \$2 mark, that's 100 buy ins for the 0.02c turbos, and as you mentioned you are crushing these since you learned a good push bot strategy.

Soon you will be +5 on your scale and at \$200 (considering you went +3 in a week).

I wish you all the best, you are my hero. I will tell my kids about you some day, young 15 year old boy.. gg wp

 07-02-2012, 11:56 AM #198 centurion   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 125 Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000) Thanks for the kindness, but this is just a prop bet for fun - don't get carried away. Also, while I might be playing the equivalent of play money, I'm also not steaming off \$10k whenever I'm running bad and playing bad, unlike some people I've heard of. So, while the direct money might approach nil, there are very very very good reasons to do things this way. It should be an example and something to remember - and just look at my last graph: http://i.imgur.com/aSSmw.jpg How long did that line hug 0? (That was with a €20 deposit where I did not start to run bad; this is with a €10 deposit where I did.) Last edited by sharkguy2; 07-02-2012 at 12:02 PM.
 07-02-2012, 01:31 PM #199 grinder     Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Eating your bamboo Posts: 522 Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000) Are we there yet?
07-02-2012, 01:52 PM   #200
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 125
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by PandaLife Are we there yet?
1.00 : \$0.02 bankroll (hypothetical)
3.00 : \$0.08
4.85 : \$0.29
7.14 : \$1.42
7.31 : \$1.59
7.64 : \$2.00
8.41 : \$3.42
8.68 : \$4.12
8.97 : \$5.03 <--- we are here
10.3 : \$12.66/€10 started challenge
10.6 : \$15.94 current streak's high before starting to run very bad
11.3 : \$25.32/€20 (started last streak)
14.28: \$200. (last after 1 wk - i.e. got +3 on this scale in 1 wk)
18.93: \$5,000.
21.25: \$25,000.
22.83: \$75,000.
23.25: \$100,000. My goal after 1 year.
25.57: \$500,000.

But this is a year-long challenge - it's going to be a long ride, so quit asking. Why didn't you go at home when I asked?

 07-02-2012, 03:51 PM #201 old hand     Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,753 Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000) OP I will send you \$50 on Stars if you go through all my posts in the marketplace and make an excel spreadsheet with the results of all my investments. You will make 100x more than playing microstakes this way and you can stop grinding \$0.02 hypers and you can also bet that \$50 against me for a potential pay of \$1,000.
 07-02-2012, 07:48 PM #202 journeyman   Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Southwest USA Posts: 295 I actually like the idea of logarithmic brm. What is your background op?
07-02-2012, 10:10 PM   #203
old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,263
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by chinagambler OP I will send you \$50 on Stars if you go through all my posts in the marketplace and make an excel spreadsheet with the results of all my investments. You will make 100x more than playing microstakes this way and you can stop grinding \$0.02 hypers and you can also bet that \$50 against me for a potential pay of \$1,000.
OP take this deal.
Should take you about an hour or so. Then start a thread to flip the 50 into many monies

07-03-2012, 12:10 AM   #204

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,018
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MrM27 OP take this deal. Should take you about an day or so. Then start a thread to flip the 50 into many monies
FYP

 07-03-2012, 12:49 AM #205 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: worshipping kevmode Posts: 7,925 Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000) lol he trupped up his bankroll. At bout 5 dolla. Me love u long time, OP.
07-03-2012, 01:47 AM   #206
veteran

Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,852
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sharkguy2 1.00 : \$0.02 bankroll (hypothetical) 3.00 : \$0.08 4.85 : \$0.29 7.14 : \$1.42 7.31 : \$1.59 7.64 : \$2.00 8.41 : \$3.42 8.68 : \$4.12 8.97 : \$5.03 <--- we are here 10.3 : \$12.66/€10 started challenge 10.6 : \$15.94 current streak's high before starting to run very bad 11.3 : \$25.32/€20 (started last streak) 14.28: \$200. (last after 1 wk - i.e. got +3 on this scale in 1 wk) 18.93: \$5,000. 21.25: \$25,000. 22.83: \$75,000. 23.25: \$100,000. My goal after 1 year. 25.57: \$500,000.

07-03-2012, 04:35 AM   #207
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 125
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by khangura175
It's a logarithmic scale. Sitting down with \$10 at a low buy-in and standing up a few orbits later with \$100 ten minutes later at a \$0.05/\$0.10 table is mechanically the same as sitting down with \$100 at a \$0.50/\$1 table and standing up ten minutes later with \$200. The game may be harder/tougher - but that could have been true of the lower table too.

Mechanically (by the rules of the game) your performance is similar in the two cases. So even though in the first you made "\$10" and the second you made "\$100" actually it's better to see each one as making 1 bi or 100 bb, which then becomes a percentage of your buy-in rather than an absolute dollar amount.

What the logarithmic scale does is make movements be the same percentage. You could think of it as the 10-based logarithm; roughly, the "number of digits."

Then it would be:
1: \$0.01 bankroll
2: \$0.10 bankroll
3: \$1 bankroll
4: \$10 bankroll
5: \$100 bankroll
6: \$1000 bankroll
7: \$10,000 bankroll
and so on. Going from \$100 to \$1000 means going from, say, having 50 bi's at \$1/\$2 to having 500 bi's at \$1/\$2.

Likewise, any other movement of "1" can correspond to going from 50 bi's to 500 bi's at that stake. But you see how 50 to 500 bi's is a HUGE leap? Well, that's why I picked a lower base than ten to do this in! Make sense?

07-03-2012, 05:09 AM   #208

Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: DSOTM
Posts: 1,192
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sharkguy2 It's a logarithmic scale. Sitting down with \$10 at a low buy-in and standing up a few orbits later with \$100 ten minutes later at a \$0.05/\$0.10 table is mechanically the same as sitting down with \$100 at a \$0.50/\$1 table and standing up ten minutes later with \$200. The game may be harder/tougher - but that could have been true of the lower table too. Mechanically (by the rules of the game) your performance is similar in the two cases. So even though in the first you made "\$10" and the second you made "\$100" actually it's better to see each one as making 1 bi or 100 bb, which then becomes a percentage of your buy-in rather than an absolute dollar amount. What the logarithmic scale does is make movements be the same percentage. You could think of it as the 10-based logarithm; roughly, the "number of digits." Then it would be: 1: \$0.01 bankroll 2: \$0.10 bankroll 3: \$1 bankroll 4: \$10 bankroll 5: \$100 bankroll 6: \$1000 bankroll 7: \$10,000 bankroll and so on. Going from \$100 to \$1000 means going from, say, having 50 bi's at \$1/\$2 to having 500 bi's at \$1/\$2. Likewise, any other movement of "1" can correspond to going from 50 bi's to 500 bi's at that stake. But you see how 50 to 500 bi's is a HUGE leap? Well, that's why I picked a lower base than ten to do this in! Make sense?
Sounds interesting.But am bad with math. Can you please elaborate this concept ?

07-03-2012, 05:19 AM   #209
centurion

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 117
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by chinagambler OP I will send you \$50 on Stars if you go through all my posts in the marketplace and make an excel spreadsheet with the results of all my investments. You will make 100x more than playing microstakes this way and you can stop grinding \$0.02 hypers and you can also bet that \$50 against me for a potential pay of \$1,000.
Is this offer open to anyone?

07-03-2012, 05:43 AM   #210
centurion

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 125
Re: Year-long prop bet (\$10 into \$100,000)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by CrazyDiam0nd Sounds interesting.But am bad with math. Can you please elaborate this concept ?
How many times do you have to multiply by 2 to multiply by 100? The answer is "log2 100" - which is 6.64. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log2+100

That's the definition of a logarithm. Moving from 1 to 100 is moving by 6.64 powers of two.

Last edited by sharkguy2; 07-03-2012 at 06:13 AM.

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