Dear friends:

I am a low-stakes cash game live player who started playing properly about 14months ago (logging results). Before that I was a tight and rather passive, close to break-even recreational player. I generally play 1/3 with a $300 buyin.

Last calendar year (2016), I started logging results in February, and I made a profit every calendar month except for September (when I got a few big bad beats but I also made some very, very big mistakes). I generally go through hands with my friends after my sessions. I play pretty tight aggressive (probably about 18/14). I also am well known for not overplaying my marginal hands.

Everything was going well until the end of December. I generally play about 4 sessions a week in addition to my full time job, totalling 16-20 hours. I made a profit every week in the last three months of 2016, despite not winning all sessions in any week. Overall I thought I was +EV, and certainly the vast majority of my opponents I thought played worse. There were some exceptions.

Then, in early January, it was as if someone pressed a button.
I just kept being sucked out on and started consistently losing. I wasn't making big mistakes, I was just getting 2 outered on the river, often on successive hands.

The issue is that I am consistently losing almost every time I get dealt a big premium pair or AK. As an example, I have:
- lost the last 4 times I got dealt aces
- won once out of the last 7 times I got dealt KK
- lost the last 8 times I got dealt QQ

I am NOT overplaying my big pairs. If I think I'm behind I fold. Most of my opponents are loose passive and do not attempt to bluff me off later streets. Moreover, I am losing to the worst players and not to the few competent players here who basically stick out like a sore thumb.

I am still about $7000 in profit from poker as a result of playing tournaments last year. However, I have now lost 14 buyins in calendar year 2017, wiping out my entire cash game profit in 2016.

In the first quarter of 2016 I won only two calendar weeks out of 12.

I am in no immediate danger of busting out my entire bankroll (70 BI). However, losing my entire profit from 2016 has been psychologically demoralizing. I am also beginning to have a fatalistic feel about the game, no longer even wanting to be dealt big pairs. The only thing remotely keeping me afloat is the fact that I generally do get paid on big hands, such as when flopping a set on a small pair.

I love the game and spend much time studying it. But at the end of the day I am not here to play the game to splash around like so many of my opponents who don't care if they bust all their savings. One guy I was playing with openly admitted he was playing with his rent money. And guess what? He flops a set two hands in succession when I have TPTK.

I would really appreciate some constructive advice as to what to do next. I strongly believe that my all-in-equity and my general play is still +EV. However I am tired of losing nearly every hand I get dealt JJ+, AK and I no longer truly believe I can win with these hands, like I did most of the time last year.

If I cannot play the game at a profit long term though, it is not worth playing. Even if I am marginally profitable it is okay with me but not at long term loss.

Please offer me some wise counsel.

Andrew James gimmick account?

I wanted to add that in 50+ sessions this calendar year I have never cashed out more than one and a third buy-ins ahead. Last year, I routinely got those sized wins once in a while.

Please don't post frivolous posts.

frivolous posts? Your about to get roasted by BBV regs, check this thread again in 12 hours u clown.

14 BI downswing should make you question your game if you haven't experienced it before. If you're saying that when you get dealt big hands pre you are getting affected you need to stop playing and realise how much variance exists for any person playing the game.

Sounds like your mental game is extremely -EV.

Live poker swings generally hurt the average person (more) severely as there's very few hands per hour played.

If you were to put all your hands total played in the last year or x amounts of months you'd probably be very surprised at what variance happens. And also most of the online grinders could play that sample size 4 times over in a week.

If you think you're +EV that's great but can also be a horrible long term outlook as it's the main reason losing poker players keep playing.

This is a lot of words, could very well be too many words

Probably half my net losses can be accounted for just with the occasions I was dealt AA.

I don't overplay them. I fold them, correctly, when I am behind.

I just cannot win with them.

icwudt wp op

fold the river

Fold the river when we're both all in on the turn and they've got two outs.

More construction and less sarcasm.

Would mind folding KK and sometimes even AA pre to avoid some of these situations. Sometimes it's just better to play it safe. That's part of proper BRM!

This +5. Or fold pre obv

Easy fold pre.

OP sounds like a lil cry baby *****, from the 10 words I read, all I heard was "WAH, WAH, WAH"

Despite the roasting you're receiving, your experience is relatable to nearly everyone logging hours. The responses you're going to receive will likely lean towards you analyzing your game and ensuring you're playing fundamentally sound/profitably. If you're losing with all of your value hands and are just on the bad end of variance, only you can truly cope with the emotional side effects that occur when you're on a downswing and nothing other people will say will make you feel any better.

Seriously consider dropping down in stakes for a few sessions, or taking a week or 2 away from the game. Poker is not your main source of income, so distract yourself with your professional career and/or things you've probably spent less time doing in the 16-20 hours/week you've been playing poker.

Gl man

please post the hands u lost with AA and KK please

solomon_peabody,

I'm experiencing the same variance problem specifically at one local card room. I never had a losing month MTT online for 18 months straight and now I'm adjusting to live cash games which started well the 1st month....

But 2nd month I had a downswing so I started logging my hands....

Whenever I had my money in good preflop where I was at least 60/40 up to 80/20 favorite, I've been getting sucked out way more than half the time....

I know bad beats and variance are part of poker... But on the fewer times I shoved when behind, my opponents hands have held more consistently as expected.

I ended up changing venues and suddenly my hands started holding just fine. I don't mind losing sessions as long as I know made right decisions... It's just so unbelievable how bad one can run.

I've seen some suspect things at this card room so I'm a little concerned about the integrity of the game. I'm still learning live cash games and table etiquette, but I'm going to keep logging my hands and hopefully my variance will at least return to the statistical mean. Just my 2 cents.

LMAO you made 14 buy ins playing part time for an entire year??

So let's say 15hrs/week for the entire year, thats 780 hours, 14 buy ins is $4200

You profited $5.38/hour and you're suddenly shocked that you're a losing player?

Stop tracking results and accept that you play recreationally dog

If you want to call me a "dog" then don't post at all
I played much fewer than 15 hrs a week last week and wasn't even playing for several weeks at a time due to work.
Go **** yourself and quite honestly I hope some macho lesbian with a gun invades your house and relieves you of every penny and all four of your limbs.

Learn some manners you moron, and be aware I know a lot of lawyers.