I am currently on a 29 hand streak all in pre river where either myself or villain is all in, where I am behind, looking to improve, and do not improve.

This includes many NFD's, pairs plus flush draws, boat draws to villain's flopped straights, straight draws, top 2 pair vs bottom sets a couple times, but of course also things like AK vs A10 on a A102 flop, etc.

I estimate the average equity throughout all 29 hands to be 20%.

What are the odds of this happening?

Try getting it in good

Eh, 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't.

This is over a 4 weeks period. I have lost $5,000 worth of total pot sizes to 4%s - 8%s suck outs over 6 hands. The biggest pots I build, 2 and 4 outers hit all in pre river.

About 80% of the biggest pots I have built with the best hand the past 9 sessions have been sucked out on, lost 8 BI's at 1/2 the past 10 days.

It's a downswing, bad variance, which is standard, but I'm looking for a precise calculation on running 29 in a row 20% avg equity.

Live poker, this is now a 4 week stretch where I have lost every single hand while behind, not including flips or when I was drawing dead.

Estimated total pot size out of all 29 hands is about $13,000, meaning with avg 20% equity, I should look to claim about $2600 of this long term.

I mean, MTT actually has a point here: If you stop getting it in bad, presumably with bad odds to call, you would maybe save money.

tl;dr fold more

The thing about being behind is you can guarantee to lose more than you win. You're delirious. Seek help OP

I forgot the trolls are heavy in this part of the forums.

Did you happen to read your original post before you responded to my comment?

I AF

Suppose I need to go to a math forum to solve this.

I strongly doubt that you're being entirely forthcoming about your results. If you have no proof you're probably embellishing.

Talk to the professor. He joined this thread

I've literally not read past the first 1.5 paragraphs. If you really want to know probablity of missing each one of those specific hands, isolated to their specific situations then do some fractions and factorials or some ****.

If you're looking for sympathy, been there done that. We've all been there. Getting knocked out of 10, 12, 15 tourneys in a row dominating the other hand each time, finishing on the bubble or near, etc.

I know people that have ran 5000 buyins below EV. This is nothing OP u whiny little punk.

No need to go to a math forum OP

Odds of this variance are 1:350

I would suggest folding pre

the odds are 1.

Would suggest folding river.









Or typing in 0,8 to the power of 29 in a calculator

did not read the whole thread lol impeach donald trump and lock up hillary clinton

I did some math for you (first time in half century): first I did 0,8 exp 29 which ended



Then I used different button {x to power of y} and result is much better for situation.



Then I multiplied 10000x29 and divided 15,4 so it can happen every 19333 hand (your 29 hand streak). It can be correct only by miracle.

I've been on the other side of this variance where the other players(s) are 20% or less and always improve. At least 20 hands or so and how the last 6 tournaments have ended for me. I guess I need to get it in bad.