I'm getting crushed in the low stakes no-limit holdem games.

The players in my games are horrible, but I can't beat them. Some highlights from today's donkeys:

*A guy accidentally flipped his hole cards up. He said "oops....I'll play the hand face up. Sorry, I goofed.". He turned over his AK so everyone could see. A woman called his pre-flop raise with A4o. Then she called flop and turn bets with no pair, no draw while staring at his AK. River went check/check. She said she didn't know what to do after seeing his hole cards.

*A guy checked the nuts (a straight) in position on the turn and river against a set.

* A guy raised blind every hand for 3 orbits straight. He let people pick his raise size on his last hand.....and a guy picked $15 after looking at his cards.

* A guy bet $75 into a $7 pot from the SB with Q2 on a Q77 flop into 5 players.....and proudly showed his hand and justified his bet size.

*3 people that misread the board/their hand

*A guy that just got a $90,000 contract and said he was there to blow some of the money.

I kept losing to people calling pre-flop raises with crap who were making huge hands. One of the guys transferred over to PLO. Got me to thinking. What if I took my $1/2 bankroll and used it to buy into $10/10 PLO. I don't know anything about the game, but beginner's luck seems to be a real thing. It might be an advantage. It sure is for the low stakes holdem players I play. I've heard that guys have cashed out for $70K in that $10/10 PLO game. Could be me!

What do you think?

If you can't beat 1/2 NL, switch to limit. $10 PLO has pots over $1,000.

Yes

The only answer.

I want to laugh, but I know this is serious. Good Luck!

yes and make sure you take out a big loan to maximize your beginner's luck

Bad idea.

Yeah there are absolutely no flaws in this plan.

I might do it. I'm defying the laws of mathematics and probability at $1/2. Any standard deviation experts? I lost 11 straight all-ins where I was either flipping or a 2-1 favorite (once I was dog, but there was enough dead money in the pot to make my play correct). The Beautiful Mind guy would call me a liar because it's so nonsensical. It's mathematically more likely that I get struck in the butthole with a lightning bolt.

Lost a nice pre-flop all-in today. I raise AK on the button to $15. Guy that looks like Cletus from The Simpsons flats in the BB. An Asian guy that's burned through $900 in 2 hours goes all-in for $50 (after limping from MP). I go all-in over the top for another $160. Cletus tanks for like 5 minutes, says "f*&k it. Let's go" and calls with AT. AT257 runout. Cletus scoops. Guy between us says "nice call". Poker calculator showed he had an 8% chance of winning......only a 2-1 dog in the dry side pot he called into. Yeah, brilliant call.

3-bet pots and straddle pots are like the Twilight Zone of bad luck. Raised $150 on the flop heads up with AK and TPTK today. Guy binks his flush on the turn for $400. At least he wasn't an ugly doosh.....nice dealer who plays once a month.

Maybe I'll just put half my bankroll on the table in $10/$10. If I win 3 pots, I could make up for this absurd run bad. I think only 3 or 4 of the guys in the $10/10 PLO game are pros. So, a few players might even suck even more than me. Got to use two cards.....that's all I know about PLO. Limited knowledge seems to maximize beginner's luck. Any other tips to maximize PLO luck?

Doubters are going to be sorry when I post a $5K win.

Your money, do what you want. Personally, I think there is something wrong with your game. Possibly image related, perhaps not reading your opponents very well.

Imaged related? I'm constantly getting people to stick in money as an 80+% underdog. Everyone can always get better at reading opponents. My problem is getting stupid unlucky in big pots.

Hero raises pre with AK. V limp-calls OOP with K7o. Hero bets flop. Hero bets turn and villain goes all-in over the top (even though says that he's knows that he's beat) on a KT32r board. Villain spikes a 7 on the river for $500. I knew EXACTLY what he had.

AJ vs TT on an AJTxx board for less than 100BBs......I'm going broke there every time.

AK vs 2 players with AJ in 3-bet pot pre. Flop comes AJ2? Seriously....wtf. That's got to be like 200-1 odds of both the case ace AND a one of the 2 remaining jacks coming out. 3-bet pots are a guaranteed cooler.

What do you mean image?

I need some stupid beginner's luck I want to be the one to play an idiot and pull cards out of my azz. It looks like so much fun! The $10/10 PLO players are always laughing, yelling, and having fun. Everyone says PLO is all luck anyways.

Within the next month, I'll either post a picture of my massive $10/$10 PLO towers or a picture of me lying in the gutter soaked in booze and urine.

How did you know he had exactly K7?

Because I had been playing with him for hours. I knew he had exactly K4 to K9 based on the action, his mumblings, and his timing. K4 to K9 is all the same. That's when the $$$ all went in. When the 7 came on the river I knew he had K7 because that's how I run

This doesn’t make sense... op constantly getting in situations with 50%+ equity but losing all the time. Must be calculating equity wrong if you lose all the time you have zero equity. Stop getting it in with zero equity or you’ll lose money!

My 10/10 games is coming quickly.....just gearing up mentally.

April will be my 5th straight month of running bad (~15,000 hands....longest run bad of my life). Starting the month off right......

today, JJ442 board. I've got QJ. My opponent has pocket 4s. J on the river would have been a jackpot.

Pocket 7s. Flop 997. Turn K. River K. I play the board. ����

I play 25+ hours a week and I've won with 4 sets in the last 2 months. How is that even possible?? Of course, everyone always hits their sets against me in 3-bet pots.

3-bet AQs pre-flop. Guy calls big 3-bet with pocket 8s even though he knows he doesn't have odds to set mine. He binks his set. I miss my flush. When I've got the set, they hit their flush.

Are there any good psychic ways to pick a good day for my 1st $10/10 PLO session? I'm a Leo if that helps. Which Wednesday in April would give me the best chance of winning?

15,000 hands is nothing. Could be run bad, could still be play bad.

Back in the day when Full Tilt was a thing and the average player was absolutely atrocious, I had a run of well over 200,000 hands were I had negative results whenever I flopped a set. That was a multiple sigma reading, yet it happens.

Negative variance happens. Moving to a more complex game with higher variance doesn't seem like a the best idea.

How to Make Money in Poker in 2023

Step 1: Buy into a small stakes 1/2 game. All the players are donks that play crap hands preflop and will get very lucky against you. Try and lose around 400-500 dollars - trust me, it'll come in handy for later.

Step 2: Buy into a super large PLO game ($10/$10 or higher). Having had an extremely bad run of cards, you are now due some rungood, as your luck will turn as the probabilities balance out (see this link). By losing 400-500 dollars in the 1/2 game, you're now due an upswing of around 8k-10k dollars. Plus, they're all donkeys, and will pay you off with anything.

This concept also applies to having a bad run when playing longer-term. Simply move up considerably to a larger stake, and experience the upswing.

Remember: Your luck always balances out.

You know, I had this "system" for years where I would start a session at 1-2, if nothing happening or losing move to 2-5, if nothing happening move to 1-2-5 PLO, if nothing happening or losing move to 5-10 PLO. Worked like a charm for decades. Win % of sessions was very high, given that basically if you win in any of the 4 levels you win for the session. Of course that is totally different than win rate or profit, but if one of the main goals is to win for the session, it's not all bad.

There have been so many hands of poker played by so many millions of players that I can't help think about the extremes.

Somewhere there is a well known pro who has demonstrated some phenomenal results and won lots of money, but in reality he is the luckiest player alive. He is probably a decent player, but that doesn't really matter. He just wins lots of money when his opponents miss their flush draws and wins when he shoves with his flush draws and hits when he is called. Etc. He is on the extreme end of variance.

Conversely there is some sad sack Joe Blow. He plays low stakes in some random casino and is a big lifetime loser. Not because he is terrible, but because he is unlucky. He always misses his draws and his opponents always seem to hit theirs. He is actually a fairly decent player, he just runs bad. The very extreme end of variance. He just keeps playing thinking it will turn for him.

Those people do exist.

Luckily, every loser takes solace in the latter and every winner does not think they are the former.

That is what makes poker so profitable.

I don't see how playing 10/10 plo can blow up in is face.

If you’re a losing NLHE player there’s a decent chance you’re a PLO crusher so give it a shot.

I often play 2 pair when I have a full house. Sure it might not win, but why even give it a chance.

15K hands is a terribly small sample. Play around with a variance calculator to get an idea of what you can expect in terms of downswings and probabilities of losses after x hands

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/