SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

blueson · 09-23-2009, 08:08 PM

Hey guys,

I'd like to bet up to $15k that I (blueson on 2+2, 20080401 on Pokerstars.it) can achieve SNE withhin 3 months starting October 2009 with ~830k VPPs to go.

~830k VPPs from October 09 till 31.12.2009
webcam is ok
5 phonecalls each bettor for every month
4-1 odds against me
willing to use an reliable escrow
i make weekly updates at my blog and here in forum
def willing to bet up to $15k
i am allowed to play any sng and tournament on pokerstars.it
bet is cancelled if sister, my ex-girlfriend, my grandparents or my 2 best friend die
bet is cancelled if italian goverment suddenly decides to close all pokersites (very unlikly)
bet is not cancelled if there is a 2x or more VPP promo
i am allowed to block my username on ss with the begin of the challenge

i already contacted scotty if it is possible to confirm weekly VPP-progress.

Background informations:

Pokerstars.it does not allow tournaments higher than €100. that means the highest VPP/game i can get is 63. (actually sometimes for sunday majors its bigger). Due to the fact that there are not running a lot of €100s, I'll play the €70s and €50s too. (44.10 and 34.65 VPPs each). My plan is to 16-table whenever possible and playing some HUs forenoon. Definitly planing on playing ~12h+ per day.

I'd like to increase my odds, say 6-1 if I make SNE and maintain a 3% ROI, 13-1 for SNE and 5% ROI. In addition I'll be playing donkaments for the yearly TLB (all stakes), my goal is to finish in top3 (stamps) and I'd like run another bet with sth. like me beeing a 15-1 dog.

in addition ive got pretty nice losing stats, if i have figured out how to unblock me at ss, you can look me up.

eager to hear opinins, thoughts and suggestions.

King KlPPER · 09-23-2009, 08:11 PM

first

br3nt00 · 09-23-2009, 08:20 PM

did i read 6-1

lol

ChicagoJoey · 09-23-2009, 08:27 PM

lmao what

Hodge05 · 09-23-2009, 08:31 PM

no prop bet should ever go higher than 3-1 odds imo

robertlanglois · 09-23-2009, 08:37 PM

bad idea

sjp507 · 09-23-2009, 08:38 PM

i'd like to wish you the best of luck in all your endeavours. my friend is also going for SNE this year, if he doesnt make it can i come PCA with you? :P

blueson · 09-23-2009, 08:47 PM

yeah ik 4-1 is high but did you realize im a sng donk? im willing to go down if everybody thinks its too high, but generally i feel 4-1 is good for both parties.

btw. 3/5% ROI is only valid for SNGs, MTTs does not count obv.

Jimmus · 09-23-2009, 08:50 PM

So basically all you're going to do is grind out insane VPP and don't have to post a positive ROI%? Sorry dude, doesn't seem like an all too worth while prop bet, especially at the posted odds...

blueson · 09-23-2009, 08:52 PM

what do you propose? positive roi and 3-1?

Jimmus · 09-23-2009, 08:55 PM

I recommend some sort of positive ROI... Anyone can grind out 880K VPP's and lose :P... I wouldn't personally, even with the sick rakeback for SNE, but it is def. doable...

Also, a slightly more useful bit of information for you. Send .03 to the user sharkscope on pokerstars to get your SS graph info's available. Funds are transfered back to you in a few days.