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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 09-23-2009, 08:08 PM   #1
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SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

Hey guys,

I'd like to bet up to $15k that I (blueson on 2+2, 20080401 on Pokerstars.it) can achieve SNE withhin 3 months starting October 2009 with ~830k VPPs to go.
  • ~830k VPPs from October 09 till 31.12.2009
  • webcam is ok
  • 5 phonecalls each bettor for every month
  • 4-1 odds against me
  • willing to use an reliable escrow
  • i make weekly updates at my blog and here in forum
  • def willing to bet up to $15k
  • i am allowed to play any sng and tournament on pokerstars.it
  • bet is cancelled if sister, my ex-girlfriend, my grandparents or my 2 best friend die
  • bet is cancelled if italian goverment suddenly decides to close all pokersites (very unlikly)
  • bet is not cancelled if there is a 2x or more VPP promo
  • i am allowed to block my username on ss with the begin of the challenge

i already contacted scotty if it is possible to confirm weekly VPP-progress.



Background informations:

Pokerstars.it does not allow tournaments higher than €100. that means the highest VPP/game i can get is 63. (actually sometimes for sunday majors its bigger). Due to the fact that there are not running a lot of €100s, I'll play the €70s and €50s too. (44.10 and 34.65 VPPs each). My plan is to 16-table whenever possible and playing some HUs forenoon. Definitly planing on playing ~12h+ per day.


I'd like to increase my odds, say 6-1 if I make SNE and maintain a 3% ROI, 13-1 for SNE and 5% ROI. In addition I'll be playing donkaments for the yearly TLB (all stakes), my goal is to finish in top3 (stamps) and I'd like run another bet with sth. like me beeing a 15-1 dog.


in addition ive got pretty nice losing stats, if i have figured out how to unblock me at ss, you can look me up.


eager to hear opinins, thoughts and suggestions.
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:11 PM   #2
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

first
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:20 PM   #3
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

did i read 6-1

lol
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:27 PM   #4
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

lmao what
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:31 PM   #5
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

no prop bet should ever go higher than 3-1 odds imo
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:37 PM   #6
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

bad idea
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:38 PM   #7
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

i'd like to wish you the best of luck in all your endeavours. my friend is also going for SNE this year, if he doesnt make it can i come PCA with you? :P
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:47 PM   #8
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

yeah ik 4-1 is high but did you realize im a sng donk? im willing to go down if everybody thinks its too high, but generally i feel 4-1 is good for both parties.

btw. 3/5% ROI is only valid for SNGs, MTTs does not count obv.
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:50 PM   #9
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

So basically all you're going to do is grind out insane VPP and don't have to post a positive ROI%? Sorry dude, doesn't seem like an all too worth while prop bet, especially at the posted odds...
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:52 PM   #10
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

what do you propose? positive roi and 3-1?
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:55 PM   #11
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

I recommend some sort of positive ROI... Anyone can grind out 880K VPP's and lose :P... I wouldn't personally, even with the sick rakeback for SNE, but it is def. doable...

Also, a slightly more useful bit of information for you. Send .03 to the user sharkscope on pokerstars to get your SS graph info's available. Funds are transfered back to you in a few days.
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:57 PM   #12
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

can you post what the actual buyin/rake amounts for the .it sngs are? like buyin+rake?

and how many VPPs are awarded per one euro € tournament fee?
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:57 PM   #13
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

yeah im still blocked at ss atm, but ive already requested unblock. probably willing to bet more than 15k im im just 3-1 and positive roi tho.
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:57 PM   #14
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

im eating KFC atm
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Old 09-23-2009, 09:00 PM   #15
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Re: SNE Prop bet: 830k VPPs in 3 months

€100 = €91+€9 = 63 VPP
€70 = €63.70+€6.30 = 44.10 VPP
€50 = €45.05+€4.95 = 34.65 VPP
€100 HU = €92.80+€7.20 = 50.40 VPP
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