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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 06-30-2010, 09:21 AM   #16
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

So FWIW I have no knowledge of how these HU Super Turbos play, but it seems crazy for you go get 2:1 on this. Is it the issue of playing 2K of these by Aug 15? Cause having a 3% ROI seems very doable... plus you only need to get there 1/3 of the time for it to be profitable. Seems to me that even if you're breakeven in these things, 1/3 of the time the sheer variance in them will carry you above 3%? Maybe I'm missing something? I must be because I can't imagine anyone would bet 20K against you without knowing what they were doing...

Either way GL dude, hope you do it. Will be following along.
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:25 AM   #17
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

i thought swings were terrible in these, as in you could manage a 7-8% positive ROI over that samplesize and then run on a negative ROI. i read a thread about these a while ago...
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:33 AM   #18
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

yeah there are huge swings in these games which makes it so easy just to run good and win bets, this smells like a scam.
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:58 AM   #19
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

i'd like to bet a small amount on primo - anybody interested in giving me 2:1 as well but for like 50:100 or so?

wld need some kinda escrow for this prob
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:16 AM   #20
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

I'll bet my $100 against ur $50 against Primo (on Skates' side)
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:16 AM   #21
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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Originally Posted by IheardJoeblows View Post
yeah there are huge swings in these games which makes it so easy just to run good and win bets
does not compute....
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:26 AM   #22
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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does not compute....
Lets make a bet that if we flip a coin 10 times, I'll call it correctly at least 6 of the 10. You give me 3:1 odds. K?
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:43 AM   #23
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

So easy to cheat, op fails.
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:03 PM   #24
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

lol guys, the person i've made the bet with knows me, and I would never ever cheat this bet. we've known each other for a long long time and would never do anything to jeopardize that.

that said, if everybody thinks its so easy, i'll offer 90% of you 1:1 if you want to take the same bet on >3%

but yea, def. not easily do-able, it's possible IMO, but def. not easy. And as i've said, I know most of you BBVrs arent familiar w/skates, but he's well known in HUNL for being a math genius ;p, really doubt he's going to give a super terrible line for anything ever
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:30 PM   #25
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Maybe it's just his wedding gift to you or something.
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:38 PM   #26
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Will you be posting updates ITT?
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:46 PM   #27
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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Will you be posting updates ITT?
yea, will be, daily or bi-daily
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:47 PM   #28
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Sick.. 2:1 line is very tempting though. Seems like variance alone makes those odds juicy but if this guy is so damn smart he could be like 3 levels above in this bet lol

I'd take 50-100 on primordial's side if anyone is interested.
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:52 PM   #29
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

lol at this being easy.

there are prob <5 people in the world that could maintain a >3% roi over a 2k+ sample in ST's (primo being one of them imo).

i think its a really tough bet. will be rooting for you primo.
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:58 PM   #30
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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Originally Posted by NthingToLose View Post
Sick.. 2:1 line is very tempting though. Seems like variance alone makes those odds juicy but if this guy is so damn smart he could be like 3 levels above in this bet lol

I'd take 50-100 on primordial's side if anyone is interested.
Or Prim you up for me sending you 50 or 100 today and just selling a small portion of your action? If we lose you pay the people you owe money to and we win you send me my share. I like your side even tho I agree no way is this easy obv.
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