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Old 06-30-2010, 04:21 AM   #1
PrimordialAA
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Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Alright, so posting this in BBV, it stems from this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58...gs-ftp-779578/



This bet will be done on Full Tilt Poker, and i'll be blogging about it whenever I get the chance on my Cardrunners blog: http://www.cardrunners.com/blog/PrimordialAA


Anyways, terms of the bet are:


My $10,000 vs Skate's $20,000


2,000 games, Starting 6/27/2010, finishing August 15th, 2010


Super Turbos ONLY are counted, stakes $350 + 5, $500 + 6, and $1000 + 11 ONLY


Chops from same time sits (Via FTP chop feature) will be marked via me, w/tourney ID, and discounted from the total, so the first 2000 legitimate games (non-chops) will be counted


I win with a 3.0% ROI or Higher, Skates wins with a 2.99% ROI or lower, 3% ROI is as quoted BEFORE rakeback











Anyways, for those of you who dont know Skates, he is a VERY smart person, quite possibly the smartest person math-wise i've ever met. So for him to offer me 2:1 on this is pretty interesting, I mean im sure he's done all the calculations, but I think I can 100% achieve it, so we're gonna see.


Anyways, this was the 2nd day of bet, but im in Tahoe and then going back to vegas for ME, so will be getting in minimal volume til I can get back home, and then have to push it to finish and keep playing well before my wedding (August 7th). Will keep this thread updated with graphs, results, etc. on a pretty regular basis, every day or two most likely. GL me

Last edited by PrimordialAA; 06-30-2010 at 04:28 AM.
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:28 AM   #2
DJDiaper
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

GLGLGL Primordial, if there is one who can achieve it... It could be you!
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:36 AM   #3
Robusto2busto
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Sick...
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:38 AM   #4
idreamofaudrey
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

is anyone taking any action?
ill bet against obv
edit: im up for 1k
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:44 AM   #5
CCuster_911
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

pretty sick glgl
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:46 AM   #6
PrimordialAA
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by idreamofaudrey View Post
is anyone taking any action?
ill bet against obv
edit: im up for 1k
i'll book 1k more on me if you want (my 1k to your 2k or my 500 to your 1k), will need escrow tho
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Old 06-30-2010, 04:48 AM   #7
Croix
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

ill bet up to my 10k versus your 20k on primo to win this prop
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:00 AM   #8
idreamofaudrey
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by PrimordialAA View Post
i'll book 1k more on me if you want (my 1k to your 2k or my 500 to your 1k), will need escrow tho
i know u are very good man
i need 1.5:1 on my 1k and obv escrow etc
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:20 AM   #9
TJayBird
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Maybe he is assuming that if you are >3% over 1000-1500 games, noone will play you over the last 500-1000 games.

I have no idea how often these games run.
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:32 AM   #10
--UCLA Deity--
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

3% ROI? whhhat
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:42 AM   #11
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by PrimordialAA View Post

I win with a 3.0% ROI or Higher, Skates wins with a 2.99% ROI or lower, 3% ROI is as quoted BEFORE rakeback[/B]

So 2.995% is a push?

edit: I think it's fairly obvious you meant anything under 3.0% is a win for Skates, but might as well make it 100% clear.
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:42 AM   #12
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

any relation to pokerman AA
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:44 AM   #13
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

oh and GL
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Old 06-30-2010, 05:51 AM   #14
George Lind III
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

not implying that you would do so, but this would be really easy to cheat at
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Old 06-30-2010, 06:30 AM   #15
LOLDONKBETZ
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

avg buyin (500*.03)(2000)=30k btw
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Old 06-30-2010, 09:21 AM   #16
Asgrow13
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

So FWIW I have no knowledge of how these HU Super Turbos play, but it seems crazy for you go get 2:1 on this. Is it the issue of playing 2K of these by Aug 15? Cause having a 3% ROI seems very doable... plus you only need to get there 1/3 of the time for it to be profitable. Seems to me that even if you're breakeven in these things, 1/3 of the time the sheer variance in them will carry you above 3%? Maybe I'm missing something? I must be because I can't imagine anyone would bet 20K against you without knowing what they were doing...

Either way GL dude, hope you do it. Will be following along.
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:25 AM   #17
aliku
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

i thought swings were terrible in these, as in you could manage a 7-8% positive ROI over that samplesize and then run on a negative ROI. i read a thread about these a while ago...
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:33 AM   #18
IheardJoeblows
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

yeah there are huge swings in these games which makes it so easy just to run good and win bets, this smells like a scam.
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Old 06-30-2010, 10:58 AM   #19
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

i'd like to bet a small amount on primo - anybody interested in giving me 2:1 as well but for like 50:100 or so?

wld need some kinda escrow for this prob
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:16 AM   #20
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

I'll bet my $100 against ur $50 against Primo (on Skates' side)
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:16 AM   #21
Larry Legend
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by IheardJoeblows View Post
yeah there are huge swings in these games which makes it so easy just to run good and win bets
does not compute....
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:26 AM   #22
Asgrow13
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend View Post
does not compute....
Lets make a bet that if we flip a coin 10 times, I'll call it correctly at least 6 of the 10. You give me 3:1 odds. K?
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Old 06-30-2010, 11:43 AM   #23
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

So easy to cheat, op fails.
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:03 PM   #24
PrimordialAA
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

lol guys, the person i've made the bet with knows me, and I would never ever cheat this bet. we've known each other for a long long time and would never do anything to jeopardize that.

that said, if everybody thinks its so easy, i'll offer 90% of you 1:1 if you want to take the same bet on >3%

but yea, def. not easily do-able, it's possible IMO, but def. not easy. And as i've said, I know most of you BBVrs arent familiar w/skates, but he's well known in HUNL for being a math genius ;p, really doubt he's going to give a super terrible line for anything ever
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Old 06-30-2010, 12:30 PM   #25
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Re: Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

Maybe it's just his wedding gift to you or something.
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