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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 10-23-2010, 02:57 PM   #1
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Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Rules

1) >10,000 SNG games with buyins ranging from $16-$60 and entrants ranging from 9-45 must be played within 31 days. Only these games will be counted for the bet.
2) I must make >$5,000 in profit at any point past 10,000 games. No FPPs/bonuses will be include in the profit.
3) The average buyin will be >$30.
4) There will be an escrow/judge(s) for this bet. I'll need help finding them though.
5) I won't be using any sicknesses as an excuse to cancel this bet unless there is a medical emergency with my family or myself.
6) Odds are 4:1. Your $400 to win my $100.


I am Simplicity8 on PokerStars. I've played all sorts of SNGs in my career as a poker player. Recently I've been playing mostly $38-$60 9-18mans and plan to continue to do so for this bet. I am also a SNG backer for >30 players currently and spend time coaching some of them. My relationship with my players is very important to me and I won't allow it to be effected by this bet. I am also a losing sports bettor!

I believe Jan-10 is the month where I've played the most games:
Simplicity8 5,122 $0 $88 -1% $258 - N/A PokerStars 1/1/2010 1/31/2010 SNG Only

Obviously there will be more terms added later. I just wanted to get the basics up for now. Min bet is $400 to win $100. I'd like 60/9 regs to avoid betting me for now as I expect the majority of my volume to be there. I'd like to start this by November 1st.
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Old 10-23-2010, 02:59 PM   #2
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

2.5:1
Jay weezey is doing same thing, but he cant play 18+45 man and 27$ 38$ 60$, at 3:1. Ur bet is way easier, cose you can load up games 3x faster.
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Old 10-23-2010, 03:04 PM   #3
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Res $1000 against, 4-1 looks fair imo,not easy bet this imo.

May bet more, just res $1000 for now,ty.

Good luck

demetri1978
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Old 10-23-2010, 03:06 PM   #4
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
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Old 10-23-2010, 03:11 PM   #5
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid View Post
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
I'm assuming you don't have much SNG experience then. Under optimal conditions playing as many tables as he does it's really hard to make much more than that in the current state of the games. Add playing that kind of volume it is grueling and his play will deteriorate throughout the month. This is a difficult prop bet.
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Old 10-23-2010, 03:30 PM   #6
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

yeah the volume is obv the hard bit but 1.6 ROI is hardly optimal and there is another dude doing it at 3 to 1 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...profit-898361/
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Old 10-23-2010, 05:33 PM   #7
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid View Post
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
Most players at those stakes (60 9/18s) are RB grinders, and hes not including his RB

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid View Post
yeah the volume is obv the hard bit but 1.6 ROI is hardly optimal and there is another dude doing it at 3 to 1 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...profit-898361/
16 9s are waaaaay easier than 60 9s.


Pretty sure a lot of people are going to underestimate how much of a grind this is going to be.
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Old 10-23-2010, 05:40 PM   #8
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid View Post
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid View Post
yeah the volume is obv the hard bit but 1.6 ROI is hardly optimal and there is another dude doing it at 3 to 1 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...profit-898361/
If you don't want to bet @ 4-1,dont bet.

If you want to offer him different odds,state what they are and see if he accepts.

If you want to do neither,then don't post anything other than wishing him luck on his grind.
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Old 10-23-2010, 05:42 PM   #9
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

I'm having dejavu
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Old 10-23-2010, 05:44 PM   #10
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Ummm ok?
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Old 10-24-2010, 10:28 PM   #11
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Great idea to steal someone elses prop bet but give worse odds.
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Old 10-24-2010, 11:04 PM   #12
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

i wasnt aware there was copyrights on prop bets
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Old 10-24-2010, 11:09 PM   #13
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zima421 View Post
i wasnt aware there was copyrights on prop bets
yea srsly

gtfo if you're not interested, and IIRC, jay weezey came in and ruined simp's action on his last attempt to put up a prop


edit: i think the prop was like 10k 45s with 10k profit in a month earlier this year
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Old 10-24-2010, 11:09 PM   #14
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicity8 View Post
4) There will be an escrow/judge(s) for this bet. I'll need help finding them though.
Please have 3 judges, gl.
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Old 10-24-2010, 11:36 PM   #15
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)

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Originally Posted by Aznpowr11 View Post
Please have 3 judges, gl.
^^this

GL simp me and josh will be pullin for ya
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