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| Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins. |
10-23-2010, 02:57 PM
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#1
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veteran
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Blogging and Staking
Posts: 2,244
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Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Rules
1) >10,000 SNG games with buyins ranging from $16-$60 and entrants ranging from 9-45 must be played within 31 days. Only these games will be counted for the bet.
2) I must make >$5,000 in profit at any point past 10,000 games. No FPPs/bonuses will be include in the profit.
3) The average buyin will be >$30.
4) There will be an escrow/judge(s) for this bet. I'll need help finding them though.
5) I won't be using any sicknesses as an excuse to cancel this bet unless there is a medical emergency with my family or myself.
6) Odds are 4:1. Your $400 to win my $100.
I am Simplicity8 on PokerStars. I've played all sorts of SNGs in my career as a poker player. Recently I've been playing mostly $38-$60 9-18mans and plan to continue to do so for this bet. I am also a SNG backer for >30 players currently and spend time coaching some of them. My relationship with my players is very important to me and I won't allow it to be effected by this bet. I am also a losing sports bettor!
I believe Jan-10 is the month where I've played the most games:
Simplicity8 5,122 $0 $88 -1% $258 - N/A PokerStars 1/1/2010 1/31/2010 SNG Only
Obviously there will be more terms added later. I just wanted to get the basics up for now. Min bet is $400 to win $100. I'd like 60/9 regs to avoid betting me for now as I expect the majority of my volume to be there. I'd like to start this by November 1st.
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10-23-2010, 02:59 PM
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#2
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grinder
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: slacking
Posts: 690
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
2.5:1
Jay weezey is doing same thing, but he cant play 18+45 man and 27$ 38$ 60$, at 3:1. Ur bet is way easier, cose you can load up games 3x faster.
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10-23-2010, 03:04 PM
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#3
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veteran
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Always looking for Stallions
Posts: 2,164
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Res $1000 against, 4-1 looks fair imo,not easy bet this imo.
May bet more, just res $1000 for now,ty.
Good luck
demetri1978
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10-23-2010, 03:06 PM
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#4
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newbie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 43
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
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10-23-2010, 03:11 PM
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#5
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grinder
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 528
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
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I'm assuming you don't have much SNG experience then. Under optimal conditions playing as many tables as he does it's really hard to make much more than that in the current state of the games. Add playing that kind of volume it is grueling and his play will deteriorate throughout the month. This is a difficult prop bet.
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10-23-2010, 03:30 PM
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#6
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newbie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 43
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
yeah the volume is obv the hard bit but 1.6 ROI is hardly optimal and there is another dude doing it at 3 to 1 http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...profit-898361/
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10-23-2010, 05:33 PM
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#7
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Oh Yea Baby??
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Edge Passing IRL
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
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Most players at those stakes (60 9/18s) are RB grinders, and hes not including his RB
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid
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16 9s are waaaaay easier than 60 9s.
Pretty sure a lot of people are going to underestimate how much of a grind this is going to be.
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10-23-2010, 05:40 PM
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#8
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realest fan
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Champions of Europe!
Posts: 5,664
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid
fiddy cents profit per game at those stakes dosn't sound very hard i dont think you would get much action at 4 to 1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokemonKid
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If you don't want to bet @ 4-1,dont bet.
If you want to offer him different odds,state what they are and see if he accepts.
If you want to do neither,then don't post anything other than wishing him luck on his grind.
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10-23-2010, 05:42 PM
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#9
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old hand
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,628
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
I'm having dejavu
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10-23-2010, 05:44 PM
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#10
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journeyman
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: @JayWeezeyStars on Twitter
Posts: 334
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Ummm ok?
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10-24-2010, 10:28 PM
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#11
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Follow me @Grayson_Physioc
Posts: 1,198
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Great idea to steal someone elses prop bet but give worse odds.
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10-24-2010, 11:04 PM
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#12
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Always looking for horses...
Posts: 15,676
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
i wasnt aware there was copyrights on prop bets
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10-24-2010, 11:09 PM
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#13
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Oh Yea Baby??
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Edge Passing IRL
Posts: 11,529
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zima421
i wasnt aware there was copyrights on prop bets
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yea srsly
gtfo if you're not interested, and IIRC, jay weezey came in and ruined simp's action on his last attempt to put up a prop
edit: i think the prop was like 10k 45s with 10k profit in a month earlier this year
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10-24-2010, 11:09 PM
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#14
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veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: not interested
Posts: 2,059
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simplicity8
4) There will be an escrow/judge(s) for this bet. I'll need help finding them though.
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Please have 3 judges, gl.
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10-24-2010, 11:36 PM
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#15
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centurion
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Jdawg91's house
Posts: 140
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Re: Prop Bet: 10,000 games with $5,000 profit @ 16-60s (avgbi >$30)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aznpowr11
Please have 3 judges, gl.
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^^this
GL simp me and josh will be pullin for ya
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