Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick93
You're a 43% favourite multiway sure. The problem is there is a 57% chance of you going busto. Therefore there is a greater chance of you going busto than you winning the pot. Hows that for an intelligent response??
Not so good...
Sure, 43% against 3 players. You are going head's up against the bigger stack with your 1500 chips. The short stack shoves with almost anything there and since he is well covered, you can act as a heads up vs the other player. So what is the percent of AA winning vs an opponent heads up all in? If OP's AA holds up against the big stack, they are ahead of where they were prior to the hand assuming straight loss to the short shove. If both players had him covered, then it is a gamble and easy to call after the river. Since the short stack can be discounted due to his size, OP is really being put all in with aces. Op can win with aces and lose to the short stack.
Three players equal in stacks and the AA calling is risky but understandable to call. OP doesn't have to compete with the short stack, only the player that put him all in. Remove the short stack from the hand and the chips in OP's stack that represent calling him. He now has aces vs a big stack bully potentially. Only one player can knock him out and if OP wins the hand vs him, he has more chips than before after losing to the short stack. Even if the short stack had more than 50% of OP's stack size folding could be argued. He has a third. It is simple math, lose a third and double what is left.
43% chance of winning against both players and 85% chance his aces hold up against the big stack. He only needs to beat the big stack to come out ahead. The short stack should not matter in whether or not he calls based on stack sizes.