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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 03-29-2017, 07:28 PM   #101
dreddie
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Re: Done man

so i played 255 SP&G. Maybey i underestimated how bad people can play.

On full tilt the payout structure is so that on the low levels you pay 8% rake and loose 1% to the jackpot you will never get. Resulting in an expected net win of $2.734 for every $1
So with a winrate of 0,385 that would be a roi of 5,2% (7% including RB)

From $15 and up you pay less rake so there your expected net win is $2.79 for every $1
So with a winrate of 0,385 that would be a roi of 7,4% (9,2% including RB)

I have no idea how they play at the higher levels.
But at the $1 level i have a winrate of 38,8% but still have a roi of -2% !

I will see if that changes with a bigger sample.
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Old 03-30-2017, 03:18 AM   #102
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Re: Done man

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Originally Posted by dreddie View Post
so i played 255 SP&G. Maybey i underestimated how bad people can play.

On full tilt the payout structure is so that on the low levels you pay 8% rake and loose 1% to the jackpot you will never get. Resulting in an expected net win of $2.734 for every $1
So with a winrate of 0,385 that would be a roi of 5,2% (7% including RB)

From $15 and up you pay less rake so there your expected net win is $2.79 for every $1
So with a winrate of 0,385 that would be a roi of 7,4% (9,2% including RB)

I have no idea how they play at the higher levels.
But at the $1 level i have a winrate of 38,8% but still have a roi of -2% !

I will see if that changes with a bigger sample.
Yeah it will change, variance is pretty hard playing with 25bigs. Is just volume, if you got a winner strategy just don't tilt because of badbeats etc and try to play your A game.

Almost 8% rake is too much. I mean a 7% that is what i have on .es it is sick but 8% and 1% for jackpots is 9%. Non sense playing on full tilt I guess. Although maybe the level you can find on there is less than on pokerstars. But spins on pokerstars are pretty simple to beat. So just study, try to get a coach or a stable or something like that. And in a year you'll se nice results.

After seeing this post you decided start playing spins? People is really worst than on HU hy.

When you make does maths I'm not sure you are doing it well. I recommend you downloading a program called Swong Sims. With that program you can make different test of winrate, downswings, the rakeback you will achieve if you play X spins on X stake with X rake+rakeback. It's a really nice program made by SmartSpin. If you download it and have any question just make it on here.

Last edited by seyroku; 03-30-2017 at 03:30 AM.
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:20 AM   #103
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Re: Done man

I used to be a winning S&G player in the good old days. But that is almost dead now. People play SP&G now. But i was convinced that of the high rake, the money you loose on jackpots and the Turbo structure of the game it would be impossible to have a positive roi.

Because with S&G you can have a nice roi of like 8-10% with normal structure, 4-6% with Turbo and 4% or lower with Super Turbo's. So i assumed that would be the same for Sp&G with only 3 players. But that any small positive roi would be eaten bij the high rake and jackpots.

The math is correct. I like to do the math myself for a better understanding of the whole game structure and potentiel winnings. I learned that you must have a win rate of 38% and that 37% will only be a break even win.
So you can see, you need a very big edge over other people. Because even if you win 37% of the games you only break even. But apperently 38% is duable. On the low levels anyway. Maybey not on the higher buy-ins.
But i play for fun (but not willing to loose money for it) so this is fine for now.

Full tilt and Pokerstars are the same thing. Its the same company and you play the same player pool.
Do you only play against spanish people ?

The rake drops on higher buy-ins. Even as low as 6% and even 5% at >$60.

But it is strange to see that pokerstars is killing it's own game with those high rake's. I don't understand how such stupid people make the decisions at such a big company.
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:42 AM   #104
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Re: Done man

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Originally Posted by dreddie View Post
I used to be a winning S&G player in the good old days. But that is almost dead now. People play SP&G now. But i was convinced that of the high rake, the money you loose on jackpots and the Turbo structure of the game it would be impossible to have a positive roi.

Because with S&G you can have a nice roi of like 8-10% with normal structure, 4-6% with Turbo and 4% or lower with Super Turbo's. So i assumed that would be the same for Sp&G with only 3 players. But that any small positive roi would be eaten bij the high rake and jackpots.

The math is correct. I like to do the math myself for a better understanding of the whole game structure and potentiel winnings. I learned that you must have a win rate of 38% and that 37% will only be a break even win.
So you can see, you need a very big edge over other people. Because even if you win 37% of the games you only break even. But apperently 38% is duable. On the low levels anyway. Maybey not on the higher buy-ins.
But i play for fun (but not willing to loose money for it) so this is fine for now.

Full tilt and Pokerstars are the same thing. Its the same company and you play the same player pool.
Do you only play against spanish people ?

The rake drops on higher buy-ins. Even as low as 6% and even 5% at >$60.

But it is strange to see that pokerstars is killing it's own game with those high rake's. I don't understand how such stupid people make the decisions at such a big company.


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Old 03-31-2017, 06:41 AM   #105
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Re: Done man

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Do you only play against spanish people ?
Yeah I only play against spanish people. I'm trying to win some money and move out to another country and start playing pokerstars.com for a bigger player pool and bigger stakes. On spain there's 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s, 20s and 50s.

I'm playing 10s actually but on .com there's 60s and 100s which is my real goal to arrive there as fast as posible.

Also in spain you have to pay tax to gob so GLGL i wont
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Old 03-31-2017, 08:36 AM   #106
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Re: Done man

pokerstars will change their vip program this year, good luck op, you'll need it
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Old 03-31-2017, 03:33 PM   #107
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Re: Done man

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pokerstars will change their vip program this year, good luck op, you'll need it
Yeah, hope they dont f*** up all the rakeback and put in random promos.. Today they have intoduced 100s spins in Spain but paying 21% tax if you win more than 5k is non sense..
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Old 04-01-2017, 10:09 AM   #108
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Re: Done man

So march has finished and I achieved the platinum. The march graph looks like this:



It has been my best month for far. So I'm happy about this. I'll try to grind harder on next months because I've realized volume it's pretty important on this high variance format.

I'm starting to shoot 20s on weekends nights because its plenty of fishes. I think I can achieve 80++ chipev on there at nights so I'll try to give a shot.

The feb/march graph looks like this:



redline tosky
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Old 04-12-2017, 05:07 PM   #109
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Re: Done man

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Originally Posted by seyroku View Post
Yeah I only play against spanish people. I'm trying to win some money and move out to another country and start playing pokerstars.com for a bigger player pool and bigger stakes. On spain there's 1s, 2s, 5s, 10s, 20s and 50s.

I'm playing 10s actually but on .com there's 60s and 100s which is my real goal to arrive there as fast as posible.

Also in spain you have to pay tax to gob so GLGL i wont
Taxes over winnings after rake is killing of course.

I dont know if a bigger playing pool would be better. There are also more regs in the bigger pool.

At bigger stakes the roi wil be lower and the variance will be even bigger.
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Old 04-16-2017, 08:55 PM   #110
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Re: Done man

update ? still beating the rake ?
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:03 AM   #111
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Re: Done man

Ye I still beat it laul. I've take like 10 days off to take a bit o party and seeing family+friends. So I haven't played a lot. Now I'm waiting like 5 days more and I finish my degree. And after that I'll give a chance poker full time. So when this month finishes I hope things go well and be able to play a lot and crush. Im happy with it.

Actually after taking 10 days off its really difficult to go back to my last mentality or habits. Before taking the vacation I had a very good routine to play and don't be sick of playing 8h++ daily. But after coming from vacation I'm not even able to open pokerstars. Just because I fill a bit lazy. Or maybe I think my job is done, when clearly I havnt done nothing yet.

So I have to stop procrastinating and start doing my job. Someone has had this sensation of coming from a vacation and not being able to play. I mean I'm able but I don't feel like playing as I felt before going on vacation.

Before I was all day playing/studying and I was feeling OK but actually I'm lazy as fu**.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:28 AM   #112
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Re: Done man

I sort of had the same problem. I couldn't figure out why on the one hand i like poker and am able to be a winning player, but on the other hand also feel some restistance playing poker.
The explenation i came up with:
Even though i'm a (small) winning player and believe i can be a winning player at like $10/hour on short term (and after that i just have no idea)
i'm just not willing to do so under the current circumstances.
I't doesnt feel right the pokersites charge so much rake and make so much money of us players. Because you have to put in many hours of study and playing time and 50-80% of your winnings go to pokerstars.
Also pokerstarts and other websites and the game itself are not a realiable partner. They change the games and rake , rakeback whenever en however they want.

If the goverment would tax my income at this rate i would also stop working.

Because of this i have not enough fun, so i decided to find another hobby.

(and just stick to the stockmarket, altough still a dirty world, its a much better and reliable world than the pokerworld, where "the rake" actually has been lowerd to all-time lows ;-)
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Old 05-02-2017, 07:37 AM   #113
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Re: Done man

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Originally Posted by dreddie View Post
I sort of had the same problem. I couldn't figure out why on the one hand i like poker and am able to be a winning player, but on the other hand also feel some restistance playing poker.

The explenation i came up with:

Even though i'm a (small) winning player and believe i can be a winning player at like $10/hour on short term (and after that i just have no idea)

i'm just not willing to do so under the current circumstances.

I't doesnt feel right the pokersites charge so much rake and make so much money of us players. Because you have to put in many hours of study and playing time and 50-80% of your winnings go to pokerstars.

Also pokerstarts and other websites and the game itself are not a realiable partner. They change the games and rake , rakeback whenever en however they want.



If the goverment would tax my income at this rate i would also stop working.



Because of this i have not enough fun, so i decided to find another hobby.



(and just stick to the stockmarket, altough still a dirty world, its a much better and reliable world than the pokerworld, where "the rake" actually has been lowerd to all-time lows ;-)


I dont feel even similar. i want to play poker for a living. i cant work in a standard job. It doesnt make me happy and I dont feel like my life has sense when im at job. i am constantly looking the watch and loosing the entire day in something i dont like.
but poker is different. i mean you are at your home playing cards and pressing buttons on a comfortable chair, listening music. who would dislike that?


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Old 05-02-2017, 04:48 PM   #114
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Re: Done man

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Old 05-02-2017, 04:49 PM   #115
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Re: Done man

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Old 05-02-2017, 04:49 PM   #116
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Re: Done man

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Old 05-02-2017, 07:54 PM   #117
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Re: Done man

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Originally Posted by Rapidesh123 View Post
At least in theory you're a winning player lol

wtf happened jigglypuff
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Old 05-03-2017, 06:15 AM   #118
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Re: Done man

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i cant work in a standard job. It doesnt make me happy and I dont feel like my life has sense when im at job. i am constantly looking the watch and loosing the entire day in something i dont like.
but poker is different. i mean you are at your home playing cards and pressing buttons on a comfortable chair, listening music. who would dislike that?
well. luckely i dont have that problem. I already work from home and with trading i only have to press a button a few times a week (trading the stockmarket) in stead of 40 hours a week.

But any job where someone takes like 50%-80% of my earnings, is it in rake or in taxes. I would choose not to do it. There is always something else to make money with.

Also grinding tables 40 hours a week for like $10 an hour would also make me misserable.

Last edited by dreddie; 05-03-2017 at 06:21 AM.
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Old 05-03-2017, 06:58 AM   #119
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Re: Done man

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well. luckely i dont have that problem. I already work from home and with trading i only have to press a button a few times a week (trading the stockmarket) in stead of 40 hours a week.

But any job where someone takes like 50%-80% of my earnings, is it in rake or in taxes. I would choose not to do it. There is always something else to make money with.

Also grinding tables 40 hours a week for like $10 an hour would also make me misserable.
But dude, actually if you win 10$ per hour you can increase that amount by far. I started winning 1$ per hour and I worked hard until this point. Actually I win 10-15$ hour but this will increase while I keep moving though stakes.

If you work from home, and you have a job you like, its ok. But I'm not happy working for someone, w8ing for the weekend, w8ing for vacations, having to get up every day at the same hour etc. I mean there's people which is fine doing that but I'm not. I want to be my own boss. Work from home and win a lot of money. I don't know many ways apart from poker that allow you to do it.
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:18 PM   #120
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Re: Done man

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But dude, actually if you win 10$ per hour you can increase that amount by far.
That the difference between us, you believe

I dont believe.

To be honest, i can afford not te believe because i'm already am where i want to be. I already trade the stockmarket voor 20 years (from age 19) and can now affort to work just a hour a day looking at the market.
But it took also much time, study and learning to get here.

My advice.
Start with some kind of part time job (say 20 hours a week) for a basic income so the pressure to earn with poker is less. The pressure that you MUST earn money to pay the bill will **** you up mentally.


Do not ever believe that because you are a good winning player for even 100.000k hands that that is going to stay so.
Events outside poker (like relationship that go wrong) can **** you up mentally , which will effect your game and you will start loosing (bad run or bad play) then you start to doubt your poker ability etc. There is no room for that if you have to pay the bills every month.

It's the same with traders. It is in our system to **** up our big winnings (many trader stories, but for it is the same for (famous) poker players. Its boom and bust )

I truly believe only the top 0,5% or even the top 0,1% can make in the world of poker. Look also at how many big winning poker players stop playing after 10 years for example. And then what ?

Now you are good at your game, like i was with S&G, but maybey in 3-4 years this game will loose its appeal for people and something else will come in place.
See for example HU players, who made big money playing HU, but now cant anymore. What if you have trouble adjustin to another game and dont have a good income for like a year for example. How you gonna handle that ?
What if they change the rake again ? or taxes on poker change ? etc.

But on the other hand when you go trough this **** and fail; for that 1% it can be the best thing to happen to you because it will be the best life lessons anyone can ever get. But only if you recognize that all problems are caused by yourself. Most people just blame the world (poker is rigged, the stockmarket is rigged, i'm just unlucky, if this... then everything would be different)

So go for it. But only if you are willing to work as hard on yourself as on your game. Because trust me, your game is only 20% of the story. The enemy in yourself is what truly matters.
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:18 PM   #121
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Re: Done man

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Old 05-03-2017, 03:19 PM   #122
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:19 PM   #123
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:20 PM   #124
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:21 PM   #125
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