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 Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

 08-10-2012, 12:34 PM #16 grinder     Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Australia Posts: 473 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? It has more variance. You play less hands per blind level, you pay more rake, the players take longer to make decisions. All in all it also depends what starting stack is and how long the levels are(the longer they are the less variance)
 08-10-2012, 12:46 PM #17 Drugs are bad...     Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,033 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? Short answer: Spoiler: yes
08-10-2012, 01:02 PM   #18
banned

Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,612
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BaseMetal2 Variance is "A measure of the dispersion of the distribution of a random variable." [Collins Dict. Of Math] If your results are like for like the variance will be exactly the same if the payout structure stays the same. It doesn't matter if you are playing turbos or double stacked the number of times you finish 1st, 2nd etc and the payout for these governs the variance. Oddly, if you get better and increase your roi by boosting each winning position by a bit then for a typical finish distribution your variance will actually go up a touch as your roi does. It is mostly governed by the payout structure though so large field MTTs have much more variance than STTs. People often use the term variance for downswing and in this case variance plays a major part in the size of expected swings but edge is also a major factor. If you have a big edge at one you can look forward to smaller swings. If at live you may not be able to play enough for even a good edge to show through. You can't really avoid variance as it is a measure of your results and built into the payout structure. (Ok you can avoid it by playing in different structures).

08-10-2012, 02:06 PM   #19
centurion

Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Crushing
Posts: 137
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Wilfred Prove it with maths
yeah, because thats possible

Spoiler:

i hate using generalisations but as a whole, live players aren't as strong as their online counterparts. obviously you could sit at a live table and be surrounded by sickos same as you could sit at an online table and be surrounded by fish, but generally live is easier than online which results in less variance

simple

08-10-2012, 02:14 PM   #20
High Troller

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Level 10 Troll
Posts: 6,994
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LamboMurc12
LOL WTF

 08-10-2012, 03:05 PM #21 newbie     Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 24 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? Dont know if your serious but obviously there is less varience in live poker because you can use live tells from Joe Navarosbook of poker tells to give you a bigger edge
08-10-2012, 04:17 PM   #22
banned

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,594
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iCANd i hate using generalisations but as a whole, live players aren't as strong as their online counterparts. obviously you could sit at a live table and be surrounded by sickos same as you could sit at an online table and be surrounded by fish, but generally live is easier than online which results in less variance simple
agree, live is easier for sure, that's why personally i completely switched to live. I played maybe ten tournaments in the last two months , won 3, came 2nd 2 times and FTed 7 out of 10, they were not massive fields, between 30-60 with buy-ins up to 500eur but still. I have never had this much success online in MTTs tbh and i played many thousands of them.

After 4 years of solid online grind , i was shocked at how dominant i felt against live MTT players, these guys were probably not the greatest, there was a few very good players, but overall, its massively +EV for me to continue to play live tournaments only, which is what i have decided to do , completely quit online, screw it!

 08-10-2012, 09:43 PM #23 grinder     Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 564 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? Live = Fewer hands per blind level and slower tournaments, ie: More variance. However it depends. It you're playing in tourneys where half of the field just calls everything and dumps money, you'll double or triple your stack early very often, effectively wiping out half or two thirds of the field in terms of average stacks and Q ratios until you get to the critical parts of the tourney. That's where it gets tricky. If you have old nits playing only AA, KK, AK and AQ and fold the rest 10 BB's deep, stealing their blinds will be an automatic and will give your stack an automatic uncontested boost. Of course you could run into a bad player in the blinds who is not a bad player because he folds shallow but because he doesn't know what he's doing and call down your shove with K10 or A2 or something. Any live MTT <\$100 buy in is borderline retarded. Yet it's hard to beat because of the standard 30% rake.
 08-10-2012, 11:20 PM #24 adept     Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 910 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? it's 50/50 now GTFO.
08-10-2012, 11:28 PM   #25
banned

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 3,482
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LamboMurc12
That deserves its own thread, and it should be sticky for years.
I have tears in my eyes now, that afro-american dude is so damn serious doing this, he should start acting.

08-11-2012, 04:57 AM   #26
The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: CA and Vegas
Posts: 8,584
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by czechvengeance softer live games = less variance (but less volume as well obv.)
If you can find a live donkament with a decent structure that is equivalent to an online tournament in terms of hands seen per blind increase...

Then yes, the live tourney will have less variance.

The reason is simple: The skill difference.

The skill level of live tournament players (ESPECIALLY YOUR LOCAL \$100 - \$200 DONKAMENTS) is ridiculously low compared to online tourney players.

Live tourney players play 25 - 50 tourneys a year at most whereas a decent online player plays 10x to 100x as many tournaments a year easy.

Similarly, most live players don't properly understand how to adjust their games as a function of M, blind defense, stealing, or bubble play...

So basically, your edge is just HUGE in a live tournament and that dramatically reduces the variance.

I laugh every time i'm at a final table, M < 10. Its my big blind and there are antes in play. I'll jam from the CO with AT and action folds to BB who will show me 88 and say, "Man, you got AA huh? AA or KK, something big. You always have something big when its my big blind... Okay, i'll wait for a better spot" and then he folds...

So yeah, live play has much lower variance than online play AINEC.

 08-11-2012, 01:57 PM #27 adept     Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: I am Americand I never give up Posts: 1,077 Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less? Ctrl-F "350" "3.50" "Tree" No results found I am disappoint
08-12-2012, 07:20 AM   #28
journeyman

Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 290
Re: Do live mtt's have the same variance as online mtt's or less?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LamboMurc12
lol - nice response.

Overall I would say there is a lot of confusion between roi and variance. Achievable ROI may vary massively due to the extra range/lack of qualities that live players may have but variance is not effected by playing live or online. If you play 500 180 man games with an roi of 50%, it doesn't matter to the variance whether these are played online or live. (ok - larger rake may effect it very slightly)

If you have an online roi for some game type at 25% and a live roi of 75% the variance seen in the equivalent live games will actually be just a little bit higher than the online one. You will be able to feel the roi difference though.

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