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Effing variance Effing variance

04-05-2024 , 05:42 AM
I played the most bizarre hand the other day. I had never seen anything like it before. It was a casino $2/$5 game.

First let me describe the villan. He is a regular. He plays in the game far more than I do and most would consider me a reg. He is a fine player. He is probably too ABC, but that means he plays a a game that is a bit too tight to be optimally profitable, but regularly crushes the casuals in the game.

Overall a perfectly fine, profitable player, just not very flexible or creative.

What makes it tough is that if you talk to him about strategy, he doesn't correctly understand why he should make the plays he makes. He will be right 90% of the time with the obvious stuff, then get another 7 or 8% right while using the wrong logic. He is playing with 97% accuracy, but not knowing why. Furthermore, when he gets into strange situations and you discuss the hand later, he will tell you his logic and it won't make any sense, but he will compound it by playing weirdly for the next few hands trying to show why he thinks he is right.

Basically a pretty good ABC player who crushes the game, but occasionally flakes. To confuse it, his flakes are often the right move, but for the wrong reasons. It has occurred to me many times that he might actually be trolling me in these weird discussions, but I don't think so.

Anyway, on to the hand. We were sitting next to each other at a $2/$5 game that was pretty juicy ($1000 max buy in). We each had about $4000 in front of us because it was so juicy. It had gotten short handed though and I was thinking of packing it up. He had played a hand against another player in a strange manner. When we were quietly discussing the hand among ourselves after the fact his logic didn't add up and I was pushing back against him a bit and I think I started to irritate him

So we are playing 5 handed. He is in the big blind, I am UTG. I get dealt KcQc. I open for $25 ( pretty much the standard opening raise in the game). In this game, preflop was generally mild and most of the +EV came post flop. One other player calls and then it gets around to the villain in the BB. I see him kind of smirk, then think for a second and finally reraise to $65.

I almost immediately fold, but then I think about our discussion and I realized he was in one of his weird phases trying to justify prior logic. So after some thought, I decide to call, my plan is to not get too crazy, but to take advantage of any strange play by him. I could easily see a flop where I flop a straight and him a set and I stack him.

I don't plan on getting deep without a monster, but I can see a few hands where that happens so I call expecting to lose the $65, but on a rare occasion win $4000. The 3rd player folds.

There is $65+$65+$25 or about $155 in the pot. The flop comes Ks, Qh, Js. I have top two. It is the best/worst flop I can ask for. I have a really good hand, but we are deepstacked and it is reasonable to think he can have a better hand.

He bets $100. I raise to $300 hoping he either folds or I get a check on the turn.

He instantly shoves. He says he is all in. Instantly.

I am 99% sure I am going to fold, but I take my time to think it through. I am pretty sure I am folding simply because my plan was not to get to deep with my hand unless I had an absolute monster but I want to think it through.

The more I think about it, the more I am sure that I am good. I don't think he shoves anything but a flush draw. I try and put him on a range and make it mathematical, but it is tough given our history and his weird phase. I cannot imagine he is over shoving a set simply because he has to fear a straight by me and would want to get paid by worse. I think a large weighting of his range is AsQs or Qs10s. He also might have Axs.

I also consider that he might not realize how deep we both are. When he gets crazy, he gets crazy.

I am all over the map with my thinking, but at the end of the day, I remember my plan of not to get to deep. I finally decide that I want to see his reaction, so I tell him that i have a monster and I show him that I have top two.

He immediately turns over his hand and shows AsQs. He has middle pair, nut flush and a straight draw (plus a royal flush draw).

We are literally about 50/50 flipping. He is ever so slightly ahead, but the amount already in the pot more than makes up for it.

I explain that I haven't folded yet, and he says he knows and that I can call if I want to.

I go back and forth for a few seconds wondering if I want to have my whole night be based on a coin flip, but at the end of the day, the EV is the EV and I cannot really turn down a ever so slightly positive EV play that is 100% guaranteed. Literally there is no hidden information.

So I shrug and call.

Of course I lose. He rivers the 3s.

My proudest moment was that I handled it totally as a pro. I didn't steam even the slightest. I congratulated him on his win, I counted out the amount of his chips from my stack (I had him covered) and rebought. I was even willing to discuss the hand with him afterwards.

As we were talking, he explained that when I showed my hand, he wanted me to fold so he instantly showed his hand to show how strong he was so that I would fold.

I explained that I was going to fold until I actually saw what his hand was. He kept saying that he showed to encourage me to fold.

He was wrong in showing, but he got the right result.
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04-05-2024 , 07:23 AM
You're default folding KQ suited to a $40 3 bet playing 4k deep short handed.... I mean I guess it would of saved you 4k
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04-05-2024 , 08:41 AM
How did you determine your EV? You are a slight dog, calling 4k to win 4170, correct?
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04-05-2024 , 11:29 AM
One thing you can see after the fact is that you played KQs against AQs. That made you a large dog preflop.

Mason
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04-05-2024 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimL
When we were quietly discussing the hand among ourselves after the fact his logic didn't add up and I was pushing back against him a bit and I think I started to irritate him
1) Does he initiate a good amount of these strategy discussions? If its mostly you, please stop starting them as much at the table, as you are tapping on the fish tank and the other reg is rightly getting annoyed at it.

2) If this player's 3-betting range is what it sounds to be, it is a very easy flat on the flop at this depth.
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04-06-2024 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
How did you determine your EV? You are a slight dog, calling 4k to win 4170, correct?
Hero had raised to 300, a 130+ in preflop so more like calling 4k approx to win 4730+
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04-06-2024 , 12:20 PM
Are you sure it is his logic that is flawed and not your own?

Im interested in some examples.

Why I think this...you are 5 handed deep and talking about folding KQS to a small 3bet?

You also state how deep you are yet still raise Top two on a very wet board with loads of money behind. None of this makes sense based on YOUR logic of not trying to put too much money at risk.

THEN, you essentially flip for $4k.

Tell me how this logic makes any sense?
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04-07-2024 , 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AALegend
1) Does he initiate a good amount of these strategy discussions? If its mostly you, please stop starting them as much at the table, as you are tapping on the fish tank and the other reg is rightly getting annoyed at it.

2) If this player's 3-betting range is what it sounds to be, it is a very easy flat on the flop at this depth.
I completely understand why some people (especially nits) hate talking strategy at the table. Don't tap the glass.

However, you know who likes talking strategy at the table? The fish.

Poker should be a social game. People love discussing a hand after the fact. It is no different than people love discussing a big sporting event after the fact. It is a way of being social.

Furthermore, listening to people talk strategy is a great way to understand their thinking.

It should be noted that talking strategy with fish is an art. You have to adapt your talk to their level and the number one rule is to not make them feel bad about their choices. You should be there making sure they are having a good time.

I regularly play with this guy who is a mediocre player. He actually isn't that bad except one really huge leak in his game: he never met a flush draw he didn't like. I have seen him call multiple overbets with 6 high flush draws on the flop and turn. As a result, he is a huge loser in the game. He will play fine, but get stacked calling it off with a terrible draw.

He likes to talk strategy with anyone and everyone. It is a real challenge talking to him because he clearly gets some advanced concepts, but he just likes to chase flushes. I have seen him fold JJ preflop and defend the action intelligently. So when I talk to him we will talk about preflop ranges and such and it will be a great conversation (plus it is a great insight into his thinking). However he will also want to talk about a hand after he blasted his stack off by over paying with a crappy draw. The only intelligent thing to say there was that it was a bad play, yet I didn't want to do that.

One day I realized that I needed to look at it from his point of view. Why was he calling with a crappy draw? He was looking to win big if he hit. I needed to talk at that level.

So one night he overcalls with a bad draw, misses, and gets stacked. He wanted to discuss the hand with me afterwards. He starts telling me his thinking. My response was "Yeah, it sucks that you missed. Imagine if you hit though, that was a big pot. You would have a ton of money in front of you right now." It doesn't matter that there might have been another player in the hand that had a bigger flush draw. I discussed the hand with him in a way that made him feel good about losing.

I later refined it to be even more honest. I would say something like "Yeah, you weren't getting good odds there, but if you hit you might win a huge pot."

Fish like to socialize. Discussing hands with them in a way that feeds that without pissing them off is great. I even believe in educating the fish because I think it hurts the mediocre, ABC poker players more than it hurts me to have educated fish.

Back to you question though, it was him that started the conversation. We had played with each other a lot and had lots of strategy discussions. He started more than I have. I used to think of him as an ABC type player so I tended to find discussions with him to be predictable and boring. It was only after I realized that he wasn't that good of a player and often got the right answer for the wrong reasons that I wanted to understand his thinking more.

My current thinking is that he is a player who has played a long time and has lots of experience so he knows many of the corr6plays just from experience, but doesn't know why they are the correct plays so he invents some crazy theories.

He got irritated because I pushed back on his ideas more than I normally do. I don't know why I pushed back this time. I just did.

As for discussing strategy in front of other players, we were sitting right next to each other and talking softly (while having many other non-strategy discussions). Furthermore we were not talking about the play of other players. We were discussing his play.
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04-07-2024 , 04:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mce86
Are you sure it is his logic that is flawed and not your own?

Im interested in some examples.

Why I think this...you are 5 handed deep and talking about folding KQS to a small 3bet?

You also state how deep you are yet still raise Top two on a very wet board with loads of money behind. None of this makes sense based on YOUR logic of not trying to put too much money at risk.

THEN, you essentially flip for $4k.

Tell me how this logic makes any sense?
Ugh. Ughly ugh.

I literally just wrote a novel (worthy of being published by 2+2...... only half said in jest) discussing the strategy aspects of each of my decisions in the hand. It was submitted and eaten by the internet.

Not going to repeat. Two hours of life wasted.

The TDLR version is that my preflop call of the three bet was knowing I had a strong hand but was likely behind in terms of ranges and definitely facing huge reverse odds. It was only made because I had position, we were hugely deepstacked (and I was using that as a lottery ticket, I was more than willing to fold a hand that looked strong but was facing aggresion), and I there was a significant chance he was flaking and would pay off a lottery ticket.

The flop was great/horrible for me.

Top two the handed the flop is strong, but it was a wet flop and there were tons of hands I could be behind.

It was a way ahead or way behind scenario (with only a couple of close hands). If it got deep I was likely way behind. The reverse odds demon.

My raise of his flop bet was for information. My expectation was that he:

1. Folds. I win the pot.
2. Reraises to around 1000 or so. I instafold. No thought. I don't care how strong my hand looks. I am behind.
3. He calls and checks the turn. I get a free card.

I think a raise here is warrented given the likelyhood he is flaking He ridiculously overshoved which changed everything.

After long thought I correctly called his hand and the fact that ibwas ahead, but it was so close that including any margin of error made it a bad call and an easy fold.

When I showed and then he showed, it was a simple math problem. He showed onw of the rare middling hands that made it close. I had 100% accurate information to make a decision. Easy call (with ridiculous variance).
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04-07-2024 , 04:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
One thing you can see after the fact is that you played KQs against AQs. That made you a large dog preflop.

Mason
That is results oriented thinking. Of course you would fold AA preflop if you knew they were going to get cracked by another hand. Results oriented thinking.

In reality, KQs is a strong hand 5 handed. I fully acknowledge that is can be folded to a 3 bet in certain circumstances 5 handed, but if you fold it all of the time to 3 bets then you are getting taken advantage of. In the right circumstances it is fine to flat call the 3 bet. Especially deepstacked.

Also, the reason KQs is an interesting hand 5 handed is its profile. KQs is obviously strong (two suited high cards), but it also potentially carries huge reverse odds. It is a hand that is strong but often dominated. Furthermore, when it hits it is hard to get paid off by weaker hands. That said, if you play it with these limitations in mind, it is extremely powerful especiallyin position. Don't allow yourself to get caught by the reverse odds and you will be fine.

Just know when you call the three bet you are likely behind in range and you won't win big pots when you hit marginally.

It should also be noted that I didn't get the 4k in until after I was 100% certain I had proper odds.

Last edited by Sheep86; 04-07-2024 at 05:20 AM. Reason: Merged two posts
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04-07-2024 , 04:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
How did you determine your EV? You are a slight dog, calling 4k to win 4170, correct?
I don't remember the exact amount,but I remember enough for it to be clear enough.

Post flop he bet $100, and I raised to $300. There was already $155 in the pot (his $65, my $65, the caller/folders $25).

We both started the hand with ~$4000. I had more, but it was close enough that I couldn't tell precisely. When I paid off the final total it was $3900 and change (including the $300 of my raise). Let's just say $3950 to make it easy.

So there is $155 in the pot on the flop. On the flop, he bets $100, I raise to $300. He shoves. There is $755 in the pot ($155 + $300 + $300). He shoves $3650 over that. So I have to call $3650 to win $755 + $3650 = $4405.

This is more than enough to get it in as a .517 versus .483 dog.

What seems to be lost in this thread is that I was going to fold until he showed. He was going to win %100 of the $755 pot on the flop. Instead he showed as well and made it so I could easily call $3650 for a ~$8055 dollar pot getting .483 versus .517.

He lost EV by showing.

Last edited by JimL; 04-07-2024 at 04:58 AM.
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04-07-2024 , 10:33 AM
you correctly called preflop

incorrectly raised the flop

correctly called the shove once he flipped over his cards

incorrectly ran it once

also your thought process through all of this screams bad reg

as long as you have fun at the table mate it’s all that matters
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04-07-2024 , 09:56 PM
Just call flop.

I’m folding flop when he shoves and shows that.

Pro tip; keep educating fish at the table it totally makes the games softer and isn’t about ego at all.
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04-09-2024 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xenoblade
you correctly called preflop

incorrectly raised the flop

correctly called the shove once he flipped over his cards

incorrectly ran it once

also your thought process through all of this screams bad reg

as long as you have fun at the table mate it’s all that matters
You have made lots of declaratory statements without any support.

I will value your unsupported declaratory statements for the exact amount I paid for them.

Why do you think the flop raise was incorrect? I used it to seek information (or get a free card, his choice) and I got the information I was seeking.

I was fully prepared to fold to further aggression after my flop raise. If he has A10 or a set there I will gladly lose the $300 and no more.

As for your bad reg comment. I did find it entertaining.
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04-09-2024 , 01:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nootaboos
Just call flop.

I’m folding flop when he shoves and shows that.

Pro tip; keep educating fish at the table it totally makes the games softer and isn’t about ego at all.

Why just call the flop? What do you do when he bets $300 on the turn? Furthermore, you absolutely thwn hate the river. By raising the flop, if he doesn't show, I get off losing $300 with top two. That is a bargin.

By raising the flop, you do two things:

1. Potentially make him flake.
2. Make him either give you a free card or more define his hand.

Also, why are you not calling the shove after he shows? You are turning down free money (granted with really high variance) by folding.

I think many people are confusing two factors here. The first is how to play KQs short handed but deepstacked. The second is the results of the flip after the shove.

Those are two separate decisions.
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04-09-2024 , 03:07 AM
Just call so you don’t inflate the pot 800bb deep with a vulnerable hand.

And I’m not interested in straight up flipping for 800bb if I’ve been grinding all day and only have 30bb invested.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimL
I think many people are confusing two factors here. The first is how to play KQs short handed but deepstacked. The second is the results of the flip after the shove.
You kind of sound like you have NFI tbh.
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04-09-2024 , 10:26 PM
OP seems like he has a massive leak in his educating fish game
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04-11-2024 , 07:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimL
Why just call the flop? What do you do when he bets $300 on the turn? Furthermore, you absolutely thwn hate the river. By raising the flop, if he doesn't show, I get off losing $300 with top two. That is a bargin.
You call the flop because you have position and have a much easier decision in the hand. You are way behind his value range of KK,QQ, JJ and only have AK in a tough spot that still has decent equity. Once he jams flop he has the one hand you aren't absolutely crushed by, unless he's a total monkey.

Turn will be an easy call on most turns that don't bring an A J T 9 or spade. Raising flop is overplaying your hand. Imagine he showed you KK, QQ, JJ or AT - would you even make this post? If you call flop, it's unlikely he's going to blast a bad turn card, so you can bet yourself. If he check raises all in on the turn which I doubt he would than you have a tough spot.

River sucks and maybe you can fold, if the guy never bluffs. He will unlikely jam it all in though so you will still save some money. Maybe you lose $1000 instead of $4000. I would much rather raise flop with 2 pair OOP than in position.
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04-16-2024 , 04:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans
You call the flop because you have position and have a much easier decision in the hand. You are way behind his value range of KK,QQ, JJ and only have AK in a tough spot that still has decent equity. Once he jams flop he has the one hand you aren't absolutely crushed by, unless he's a total monkey.

Turn will be an easy call on most turns that don't bring an A J T 9 or spade. Raising flop is overplaying your hand. Imagine he showed you KK, QQ, JJ or AT - would you even make this post? If you call flop, it's unlikely he's going to blast a bad turn card, so you can bet yourself. If he check raises all in on the turn which I doubt he would than you have a tough spot.

River sucks and maybe you can fold, if the guy never bluffs. He will unlikely jam it all in though so you will still save some money. Maybe you lose $1000 instead of $4000. I would much rather raise flop with 2 pair OOP than in position.
You didn't read the OP did you?
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04-21-2024 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimL
What makes it tough is that if you talk to him about strategy, he doesn't correctly understand why he should make the plays he makes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimL
He bets $100. I raise to $300 hoping he either folds or I get a check on the turn.

ok pro, explain why you are raising in the hopes that he folds.

Actually don't bother, I know what you are going to say, and I will refer you to your initial quote above.
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Today , 02:20 PM
sometimes i shoot the opponent with a water gun to balance my range

just a thought OP
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