40K in 30 days at $60 sng's prop bet - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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40K in 30 days at $60 sng's prop bet

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01-19-2009 , 11:47 PM

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

I first started the thread on pocket fives found here: http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-for...-elite-3805505

I want to bet that I can make 40k in 30 days at the $60 buyin sng level. This includes any sng 2-90 man with a $60 buyin. I have about 25k in action so far and would like to get 40k before I start. The odds are 1-1. I also need to find a trusted person we can all escrow the money too. Please let me know here if you 're interested in betting against me. Min bet=500.

-Grayson

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01-19-2009 , 11:49 PM

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

Also, this does NOT include Fpps, bonuses, etc.-- It's strictly profit.

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01-19-2009 , 11:51 PM

All Father

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,912

wow it seems very tough to me, but gl with it!

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01-19-2009 , 11:58 PM

faarcyde

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,389

you need to be studied by scientists at a university level

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01-20-2009 , 12:05 AM

jcawley

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,583

will you be playing 60s only, or are you allowed to mix lower buyins in when the volume is low?

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01-20-2009 , 12:06 AM

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

60's only.

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01-20-2009 , 12:14 AM

Hood

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 6,887

YOU CRAZY

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01-20-2009 , 12:19 AM

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,765

should post this in BBV if you want some more action.

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01-20-2009 , 01:00 AM

Kangster

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,121

good luck OP

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01-20-2009 , 01:32 AM

#10

Aussie Rhino

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,752

How will you account for the fact that after setting up this prop bet, any half-smart reg will table select and avoid the games with you in them?

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01-20-2009 , 01:35 AM

#11

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,765

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aussie Rhino

How will you account for the fact that after setting up this prop bet, any half-smart reg will table select and avoid the games with you in them?

probably by making more money.

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01-20-2009 , 01:38 AM

#12

Aussie Rhino

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,752

Quote:

Originally Posted by sippin_criss

probably by making more money.

Higher ROI for sure, but my question is whether he'll get enough action???

This obviously requires a decent amount of volume - at ROI 8 - 10%, you'll need to get thru 7 - 8k games.

Last edited by Aussie Rhino; 01-20-2009 at 01:41 AM. Reason: included forecast

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01-20-2009 , 02:02 AM

#13

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

LOL at not being able to get action at the 60s because regs will be scared to sit in.

I think this would be extremely difficult to do, but including 2-man SNGs seems to make it sketchy. Not saying you would cheat or anything, but that's the reason I wouldn't take the bet. 9-man SNGs I would take in a heartbeat.

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01-20-2009 , 02:37 AM

#14

TwistedEcho

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 7,383

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aussie Rhino

How will you account for the fact that after setting up this prop bet, any half-smart reg will table select and avoid the games with you in them?

.... Have you seen the 60s lately? If you table select that hard you'll never play. They are fullll of regs atm, most of the regs aren't great but you can't avoid regs, its like 5-7regs every sng at peak times.

If somehow every reg starts avoiding SG, then i'll game select by playing the sngs that SG are playing since they'll get softer. I'm sure SG being in the sngs won't make many ppl avoid just cause ppl are lazy

edit - also if SG just regs for the next 30 or w/e, its going to be really tough for ppl to wait it out for him to not be in any

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01-20-2009 , 02:57 AM

#15

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sly Caveat

Good point, Hu sngs will be excluded from the bet.

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01-20-2009 , 03:26 AM

#16

The Lipo Fund

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 13,484

spacegravy:

book me for $500, i dont and wont post on p5s so just let me know when and who to send it to

glglgl, just doing it for the sweat really

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01-20-2009 , 04:58 AM

#17

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lipo Fund

spacegravy:

book me for $500, i dont and wont post on p5s so just let me know when and who to send it to

glglgl, just doing it for the sweat really

+1 for me. I'm in for $500, but I'm not active on p5s.

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01-20-2009 , 06:19 AM

#18

CJSaunders

adept

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 948

Quote:

Originally Posted by faarcyde

you need to be studied by non-terrestrial scientists at a university level

FYP.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of ROI do you expect to sustain to get this done, how many tables / hours a day, etc. ?

Best of luck to you

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01-20-2009 , 07:04 AM

#19

meierp

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 76

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJSaunders

FYP.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of ROI do you expect to sustain to get this done, how many tables / hours a day, etc. ?

Best of luck to you

the amount he will do will boggle your mind, and only the one and only gravy can do this sir

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01-20-2009 , 07:10 AM

#20

ChristopherEucken

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 793

will we get updates/hand histories/webcam coverage?

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01-20-2009 , 07:13 AM

#21

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

Please post your sleeping schedule so I can know when to play.

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01-20-2009 , 07:21 AM

#22

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJSaunders

FYP.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of ROI do you expect to sustain to get this done, how many tables / hours a day, etc. ?

Best of luck to you

haha, I don't play the 60's too much but I think a 8-12% roi should be expected. I havn't really looked at the math but I guess I'll just keep playin till I make the money.

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01-20-2009 , 07:21 AM

#23

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChristopherEucken

will we get updates/hand histories/webcam coverage?

Ya, I'll blog everyday and post the stats like last time.

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01-20-2009 , 07:25 AM

#24

spacegravy

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Please post your sleeping schedule so I can know when to play.

What's a schedule??

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01-20-2009 , 07:35 AM

#25

Bedz

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,658

Wow, this is so sick. I almost want to take $500 action on this

Sorry if it's just me who is uninformed, but were can we find your blog?

Best of luck with this, and I love you for not doing this at FT, although the games will probobly get slightly tougher there as well as a result of people playing FT instead of Stars.

Edit: Also, how sick would it be if he makes $40k with bonuses and all, loses all his bets and ends up breaking even for the month...

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