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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 05-27-2012, 10:38 AM   #121
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

yeah pretty much the 60s will be softer than the 100s so less likely that his non $30 games drag down the overall profit to negative. Also the 60s should go off faster than 100s and overall there should be more liquidity in 30-100s than there was between just 30 and 100s, so more games per hour should be possible.

Still gonna be hard, i thought he was less likely than 2.5 to 1 to make it before so this prob brings the line closer to where it should be.
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Old 05-27-2012, 10:41 AM   #122
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

Well it kinda changes the entire premise of the bet imo. Playing 30s and 100s only is going to make it harder I think since less 30s and 100s will pop off now, if he changes the parameters to add 60s and 200s it could go either way.
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:11 AM   #123
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

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Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
Well it kinda changes the entire premise of the bet imo. Playing 30s and 100s only is going to make it harder I think since less 30s and 100s will pop off now, if he changes the parameters to add 60s and 200s it could go either way.
it does not imo

"I am allowed to play maximum of 25,000 games on $30 stakes (the rest will be on $100 stakes or whatever Stars add)"

but some clarification about rules will be needed
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Old 05-27-2012, 05:13 PM   #124
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

res 2k
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Old 05-28-2012, 10:34 AM   #125
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

I will confirm all the reservations by the end of the May, I dont have much time now, I am on a vacation

I have one escrow and I am still looking for at least one more and one judge.
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Old 05-28-2012, 12:08 PM   #126
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

gl youll need it imo.
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Old 05-28-2012, 01:42 PM   #127
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

So do you have to profit pre RB?
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Old 05-28-2012, 01:45 PM   #128
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

Big GL Sir.
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Old 05-28-2012, 07:29 PM   #129
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

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So do you have to profit pre RB?
why dont u read the rules before asking q's like this?
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Old 05-28-2012, 10:58 PM   #130
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

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Originally Posted by Taste_Them_Aces View Post
why dont u read the rules before asking q's like this?
Wasn't stated in the "rules". Missed the part in the paragraph talking about his last bet. But I see it now
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Old 05-29-2012, 01:57 AM   #131
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

interested in 500 with american-friendly payment options
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Old 05-29-2012, 08:06 AM   #132
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

Seems like you're going for 24 tabling, the average of an Hyper-Turbo is around 10 minutes, so that's 24*6=144 per hour, 40k/144=278 hours. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...opbet-1102796/ there they wrote that you played 386 hours for your last challenge, so the volume is not an issue for you. It's not easy for everyone to play 300 hours but for you it'll be super fine. Then you need to be positive but it's more likely that you'll be since your ROI is 1%, on any sample no matter how big (or small ofc) it is the probability of you showing a profit is over 0.5. GL finding people.
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Old 05-29-2012, 08:32 AM   #133
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

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Originally Posted by SwishFTW View Post
Seems like you're going for 24 tabling, the average of an Hyper-Turbo is around 10 minutes, so that's 24*6=144 per hour, 40k/144=278 hours. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...opbet-1102796/ there they wrote that you played 386 hours for your last challenge, so the volume is not an issue for you. It's not easy for everyone to play 300 hours but for you it'll be super fine. Then you need to be positive but it's more likely that you'll be since your ROI is 1%, on any sample no matter how big (or small ofc) it is the probability of you showing a profit is over 0.5. GL finding people.
I don't think it's possible to 24-table 6-max hypers, he's probably gonna play less at once. I think he wrote some numbers somewhere
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Old 05-29-2012, 08:36 AM   #134
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

Well if it's not possible to 24-table then what's the purpose of this rule?

Quote:
7. The bet will be void if PokerStars reduces the maximum number of sit and go tables that can be played at once to 23 or lower.
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Old 05-29-2012, 09:17 AM   #135
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet

yeah but he wont be continuously 24 tabling every hour he plays. During off peak hour esp it wont even be possible to 24table $30+ as there wont be that many running. If i were to try and put a number out there on the amount of tables he will be playing on avg for each hour he plays it would be more like 15-17.

That being said i dont think volume will be an issue in this challenge either. Profit is the biggest thing. And even if his true ROI was 0% i still wouldnt consider 2.5-1 odds to be a fair bet for anyone. Hence why i will not be betting here. TBH i would only consider betting on this if the odds were more like 1.5-1. But thats just 1 donkeys opinion.
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