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| Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins. |
05-17-2012, 08:44 AM
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#46
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old hand
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Buenos Aires
Posts: 1,412
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
This is just outrageous. I think I'm just going to have to throw down some monies on this. However since these are all I play, I will need reg status, otherwise I can't bet.
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05-17-2012, 10:28 AM
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#47
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grinder
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Valuetown
Posts: 492
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
ROI on hypers is marginal once you get some volume. You're a beast. GL.
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05-17-2012, 11:09 AM
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#48
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old hand
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: grinding the 180s
Posts: 1,251
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
GL man looking forward to another epic sweat
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05-17-2012, 12:14 PM
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#49
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Canada
Posts: 3,232
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Nice run in SCOOP-27-M
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05-17-2012, 02:51 PM
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#50
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: hookers and massages
Posts: 3,232
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
can't be done, but then again, neither could the last 2 prop bets so w/e
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05-17-2012, 03:05 PM
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#51
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Checking out this year's crop
Posts: 5,090
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
It's probably no coincidence you chose a 30-day period when many grinders will be at WSOP and not playing online. IMO it greatly increases the chances of you being successful on the bet.
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05-17-2012, 06:37 PM
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#52
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adept
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Morgue
Posts: 1,149
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
U already broke my heart and took 3k from me in the last prop bet. Will sit on the sideline for now. GL
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05-18-2012, 12:06 AM
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#53
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Oh Yea Baby??
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: SNE/Blogging!
Posts: 14,324
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Will hit you up on skype too, but if you need an escrow, can definitely help out with that.
Gl
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05-18-2012, 06:35 AM
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#54
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grinder
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 648
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Will there be enough games going off ? So it's like 1300 games a day 6 games an hour per table ? 9 hrs 24 tabeling.
Id bet at 2 as I know you can handle the volume, buy
Unsure about the winrate
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05-18-2012, 09:47 AM
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#55
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adept
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: dafaq
Posts: 802
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Hail to all the retards who will bet against thy!
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05-18-2012, 11:01 AM
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#56
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: At the rim
Posts: 1,388
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gramps
It's probably no coincidence you chose a 30-day period when many grinders will be at WSOP and not playing online. IMO it greatly increases the chances of you being successful on the bet.
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Spot on
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05-18-2012, 01:16 PM
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#57
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enthusiast
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 65
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
I'm sry I never understood those bets. How is a webcam enough proof that it is the bettor playing and it is not like one guy playing diablo all day in front of the webcam and 3 guys actually taking turns to play at much more reasonable volume? Then, there is the problem with collusion as it is such a small 6-player SNG format. Odds are 2,5:1 in op's favour which more than covers for chip dumping and collectively paid rake.
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05-18-2012, 01:47 PM
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#58
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banned
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,594
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gramps
It's probably no coincidence you chose a 30-day period when many grinders will be at WSOP and not playing online. IMO it greatly increases the chances of you being successful on the bet.
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hmmm, can not agree, one thing is if this was a high buy-in SNG or MTT challenge as regs in those games will go to WSOP, but i don't think that many hyper regs will go to WSOP. Think about it like this, Jorj95 is one of the best hyper 6-max player and his ROI is only 1%, it just shows you that at higher stakes there is almost no edge, all the money is in the rakeback, and you are considered very good hyper player if you are not losing money pre-rakeback playing huge volumes.
Also, if so many hyper regs that play 30s and 100s do go to WSOP there will be much less volume and OP will have to spend a lot more hours at the computer to keep the pace.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountaingoat
I'm sry I never understood those bets. How is a webcam enough proof that it is the bettor playing and it is not like one guy playing diablo all day in front of the webcam and 3 guys actually taking turns to play at much more reasonable volume? Then, there is the problem with collusion as it is such a small 6-player SNG format. Odds are 2,5:1 in op's favour which more than covers for chip dumping and collectively paid rake.
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Collusion would be possible, but if judges do their job 100% it would be almost impossible. If Stars also participates in this, any suspicious behavior over such large volume will be quite easy to notice. With regards to the camera, i suppose OP could be playing Diablo all day and three guys taking turn in the other room, even if camera is pointed to the screen, or both the screen and OP, there are ways to cheat
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05-18-2012, 03:54 PM
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#59
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newbie
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: It's all in the hips...
Posts: 21
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
I hope you crash and ****ing burn, 39,999 sng played with -$1.00 profit, wooooo
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05-18-2012, 05:19 PM
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#60
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Checking out this year's crop
Posts: 5,090
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Re: 40,000 SnG's in 30 days propbet
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdoro
hmmm, can not agree, one thing is if this was a high buy-in SNG or MTT challenge as regs in those games will go to WSOP, but i don't think that many hyper regs will go to WSOP. Think about it like this, Jorj95 is one of the best hyper 6-max player and his ROI is only 1%, it just shows you that at higher stakes there is almost no edge, all the money is in the rakeback, and you are considered very good hyper player if you are not losing money pre-rakeback playing huge volumes.
Also, if so many hyper regs that play 30s and 100s do go to WSOP there will be much less volume and OP will have to spend a lot more hours at the computer to keep the pace.
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Trust me, if you take the best 20 players in that pool and even an extra 2-3 are entirely absent during that period, it makes a big difference in game quality. I'd guess more than that will be in Vegas, we'll see.
Over 1,000 $100 6-max hypers a day go off normally (and even more $30s), so there's little issue getting in the combined 40k games over a 30-day period due to lack of games running (especially since OP would have to do the monthly volume of 4-5 grinders to win the bet)
And normally I just keep my mouth shut about points like the one I made about WSOP, but prop bets like this usually suck donkey balls for the other regs in the relevant player pool. $$ from outside the ecosystem (that the other regs have no access to) incentivizes one reg. to engage in behavior that takes $$ out of every other reg's pocket (the ones not at WSOP  ). Even if said bettor is brain-fried playing his C or D game and is the 3rd or 4th best player at the table, etc., there's a degradation in game quality.
That said, OP is a very good player and it's still a very difficult task, so if people are willing to put up the money, everyone has the right to bet & play what they want.
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