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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 02-18-2012, 04:20 PM   #1
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$15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

I have been debating doing a propbet for a while, and ever since bfizz11 posted in the 180 man thread that he was interested in doing $15k/month at 180s, I've decided I'd try it out myself.

Rules:

1) I, Camzace, have to make $15,000 before rakeback during the period of 12:00am March 1st to 11:59pm March 31st NZT*.
2) Odds will be 3:1 in my favour.
3) Only turbo 180 mans at the $2.50, $8, $3.50 rebuy and $15 stakes will be eligible for this bet.
4) This bet will be void if anything prevents me from playing 180s during this time due to legislation, table restrictions, bereavement, medical emergency, or Pokerstars administration themselves. This will be subject to the Judges discretion.
5) I will keep a live webcam stream at all times during the bet, in order to verify to the public it is me playing. I will be disqualified from the bet only if I refuse to do this, and not through technical/accidental issues.
6) Downtime on Pokerstars will add an equal amount of time to the end of the bet. In the case where I cannot play during my normal hours for >8 hours at a time, a full day will be added, provided I do not play at all during the day on which the downtime occurs.
7) Bettors shall not play in these games unless they are 180 regulars themselves. In most cases this will lead to a forfeiture of their bet.
8) Final decider about profit will be determined by an audit, not through sharkscope. It can be misleading regarding profit through 3.50 rebuy 180s.

I am initially looking to bet up to 6k vs bettors 18k, but pending interest this amount might increase later. I am also looking for a reliable escrow, and some amount of willing judges.

* If conditions of the bet are not fully resolved by March 1st, the bet may be delayed, so long as the bet still lasts 31 days.
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Old 02-18-2012, 04:32 PM   #2
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

looks difficult at first glance
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Old 02-18-2012, 05:03 PM   #3
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

pro tip: quit being a degen gambler and spend your money elsewhere
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Old 02-18-2012, 07:33 PM   #4
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

3:1 is too high odds would bet 3k at 1:1 12.5k in a month or might consider some smaller odds. sippin cris did 1:1 on 10k profit and was way ahead of pace when he asked to cancel the bet cause he didnt want to grind anymore like 15 days in. he had like 70% completed or something can't remember exactly.
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Old 02-18-2012, 07:54 PM   #5
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

Was he playing $35s too? That changes a bunch. And when did he do this?
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Old 02-18-2012, 08:20 PM   #6
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

i dont think he was playing 35s check stt prop bet thread...
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Old 02-18-2012, 08:25 PM   #7
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

1.75:1?
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Old 02-18-2012, 08:28 PM   #8
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

Hm, 180 man thread seemed to suggest people would be interested at 3:1... might have to rethink this
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Old 02-18-2012, 08:35 PM   #9
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

Im not betting (poor) but I think 3:1 is very fair. 15k profit month at 180s (no 35s) is very hard to do espically with the insane varrience of the games. They deffinatley are not easy games, reg infested. The games are alot harder now and making a 15k mont is not easy. Besides Op could easily hit a 200 AVB (at least) downswing towards the end or middle.

Maybe im wrong, at least 2:1, but I think 3:1 is fair. Obv no bettor will agree with me (hustlas) but OP i think you should at lest try to get 3:1. Everyone will just try and hustle you.
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Old 02-18-2012, 09:42 PM   #10
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

Il put myself forward as a judge if you'l accept me, and best of luck.
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Old 02-18-2012, 09:46 PM   #11
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breanne1 View Post
Im not betting (poor) but I think 3:1 is very fair. 15k profit month at 180s (no 35s) is very hard to do espically with the insane varrience of the games. They deffinatley are not easy games, reg infested. The games are alot harder now and making a 15k mont is not easy. Besides Op could easily hit a 200 AVB (at least) downswing towards the end or middle.

Maybe im wrong, at least 2:1, but I think 3:1 is fair. Obv no bettor will agree with me (hustlas) but OP i think you should at lest try to get 3:1. Everyone will just try and hustle you.
also second this comment, 15k is pretty hard, specially without 35s to boost the upswings
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Old 02-18-2012, 10:03 PM   #12
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

At a possible lower odds I could be interested in this. The fact your volume can reduce a lot of variance kinda makes me think that at 3:1 you are very much getting the best of it.
Conceivably, you could pump out8k+ games in a month thus only having to make $1.50 a game.
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Old 02-19-2012, 04:43 AM   #13
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

reserve 1k to my 3k please
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Old 02-19-2012, 01:21 PM   #14
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

I think odds are pretty fair, I might ask for better only cause cam is a sicko
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Old 02-19-2012, 02:43 PM   #15
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Re: $15k at 180s up to $15s in March *PROPBET*

if u average 330 games a day 15% roi would achieve this.Its a volume bet and people aware of your masstabling skills.What about 20k profit 4:1 would be a real challenge imo
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