$10k Profit 1 month $15 SNG's - Page 13 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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$10k Profit 1 month $15 SNG's

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08-22-2017 , 10:56 PM

#301

orb_dam_u

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,351

He's playing without a hud so he must be one-tabling right?

Quote

08-23-2017 , 04:14 AM

#302

IHaveThreePair

adept

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 1,136

Quote:

Originally Posted by orb_dam_u

He's playing without a hud so he must be one-tabling right?

Can't tell if srs...

200 games a day in SnG MTT one tabling...

Quote

08-23-2017 , 05:10 AM

#303

Pendaflex89

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 131

Quote:

Originally Posted by bfizz11

I still have a bit of grinding to do but this bet is a wrap.

I'm looking for 5:1 odds against me making $15k in October, same guidelines as this bet. I need a challenge.

Don't jinx yourself.

How much are you looking for? And how would we escrow? I could be tempted to bet something in the range of 500-1k. I realize that might not be worth your time.

15.5k?

I'm u.s. So I would use PayPal or send bitcoin

Quote

08-23-2017 , 12:50 PM

#304

robert_utk

Not From the UK

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,822

Op is a lock in this month, and no way I would bet 5:1 against him next month. The 15 dollar high variance MTT will be how he does it, mark my words.

Quote

08-23-2017 , 03:30 PM

#305

bfizz11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,901

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pendaflex89

Don't jinx yourself.

How much are you looking for? And how would we escrow? I could be tempted to bet something in the range of 500-1k. I realize that might not be worth your time.

15.5k?

I'm u.s. So I would use PayPal or send bitcoin

I have recordings of me before this bet started saying it was a joke and that I was going to **** on it this bet - I don't believe in that BS jinx stuff

I will need $3k minimum collectively bet against so yeah whatever you decide in the $1k ballpark will be fine. Escrow is the least of our problems, not only am I extremely trust worthy but there are a dozen well known rich pros who would be happy to do it for us. And yeah btc or paypal or w/e, doesnt matter.

Quote

08-23-2017 , 05:18 PM

#306

bfizz11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,901

+800 today and 2/9 at a $3r FT

Quote

08-23-2017 , 05:56 PM

#307

thabighurt35

**** you Monday

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,588

btc would not be an optimal medium if you are going to escrow the money imo.

i could be enticed to wager as well, but would need to see the rules again.

Quote

08-23-2017 , 08:54 PM

#308

squire1888

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 1,683

Quote:

Originally Posted by bfizz11

+800 today and 2/9 at a $3r FT

your welcome for my stack to get there

why do u think the $15s are higher variance? shorter av stack i get but smaller fields offset that maybe? ive had much biggest swings in the 3rs than i have in the ODs 🤷🏻*♂️

Quote

08-24-2017 , 03:27 AM

#309

Pendaflex89

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 131

Quote:

Originally Posted by squire1888

your welcome for my stack to get there

why do u think the $15s are higher variance? shorter av stack i get but smaller fields offset that maybe? ive had much biggest swings in the 3rs than i have in the ODs 🤷🏻*♂️

I haven't been able to play on stars in years but im assuming the $15 aren't rebuys

So I would say a good player has much lower in variance in the 3r because a few bad beats or lost flips at the beginning doesn't matter. After the re buy period is over I have to imagine his gameplay is leaps beyond other players and the $15 OD it just takes a few bad beats at the beginning to end the game.

I don't know the math but I have to imagine a great player would avoid swings in a 3r

Quote

08-24-2017 , 10:43 AM

#310

AlwaysFolding

Urban Pharmer

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 19,980

LATE

ASS

HEAT

Where we at boss? August delivers imo

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:23 AM

#311

bfizz11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,901

Quote:

Originally Posted by squire1888

your welcome for my stack to get there

why do u think the $15s are higher variance? shorter av stack i get but smaller fields offset that maybe? ive had much biggest swings in the 3rs than i have in the ODs 🤷🏻*♂️

I haven't seen many (if any) $2k downers at the $3r level from the top players. However at the $15s, they seem routine and even some better players than me have given them a try and had some pretty sick swings around the $2k+ area.

I do think my edge is quite a bit bigger than most regs in the short handed and HU part of the SNG and the deeper stacked nature of the 3r's allows my edge to expand further which means I win more and have less variance I guess.

But tbh 100%, I have no idea. I am just now playing the on-demands for the first time and still figuring stuff out myself.

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:24 AM

#312

bfizz11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,901

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlwaysFolding

LATE

ASS

HEAT

Where we at boss? August delivers imo

We are a few hundred away from gloryville

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:28 AM

#313

v1pe

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 40

Quote:

Originally Posted by bfizz11

We are a few hundred away from gloryville

Vamoooo! Here's wishing some late ass heat to ship it!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:30 AM

#314

HyperHornet

stranger

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 14

You absolute sickkkko. Take it down.

Do you run any buyin strategy with the 3.5r? Do you double stack when ever possible? Or only once a certain level etc?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:38 AM

#315

fidstar-poker

I'm gonna need a hacksaw

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 32,992

What's amazing isn't that you look like you will win the bet, but how straight that graph is.

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:39 AM

#316

AlwaysFolding

Urban Pharmer

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 19,980

I am so glad this has gone so swimmingly. From #EarlyAssHeat to all of the dollars, well done my friend. Well done.

Let us know when you cross the threshold.

Quote

08-24-2017 , 11:51 AM

#317

demetri1978

See My Staking Thread

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,809

Nowfor the real challenge....

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...rop+bet+2+180s

lmk when you are ready

Congrats btw!

Quote

08-24-2017 , 01:56 PM

#318

bfizz11

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,901

Replies to above comments coming when table count drops, but I have already won a $3r and an on-demand with a few other FT's and am up $800 3 hours into the session. And that $2.50 challenge will not happen for me, I did a $2.50 challenge in May/June already. On to bigger and better things now