I'm going to be very careful how I word this so I don't sound like a idiot accusing online poker of being rigged (this isn't what I believe)


I have a weird oddity with my chipEV graph. Around the ~430k hand mark my winrate changed... for a prolonged time. Prior to this the majority of my sessions would end with me winning chips. But overnight I started running extremely poorly. I chalked it up as variance.. Which is what it is.

I'm wondering if anyone else has had something like this happen? Is this a normal occurrence?

I didn't make any drastic changes to my game, if anything I'm always working on improving my game and in this time I can only assume my winrate should be increasing.... Not decreasing by 65%

[x] Thread has graph
[ ] OP understands what "running poorly" means

swongs r 1 thang

Its possible you were running above expectation for a while and now its evening out. Another possibility is that you're now running poorly and it will even out eventually. I know it seems like 450k+ is a huge sample size and stats should be pretty accurate, but life is weird and random and human brains are not good at understanding variance and long term variance.

Useful information [ ]
Mindless trolling [x]

This could be true. Contrary to what the BBV troll stated about me not understanding running poorly, I feel I understand and respect variance.

Running above expectation previously is a consideration, but not something that I'm willing to accept.

MY ABI has changed in this time but this is my graph for $54+ buyin so I'm not leaking chips there

How many months/years is this over?

90% of these hands were played between June 22nd and now

See this graph? This is much more useful.

[x] OP has had a glitch in the matrix
[x] OP is also very touchy

You're overall winning, you have periods of swongz, from the very limited information we have (mostly just your feelings and one useful graph LOL 20k hands). I'd say AD is onto something, you're either cooling off or you're in a little bit of a lull.

tl;dr don't sweat it, as long as you aren't dumping 20BI at a time things are probably gonna be okay.

OP is guilty of being touchy on occasions on 2p2.

I'm still pretty new to poker, the graph shown is my total career graph on PS so I'm still finding out the different ways that variance shows it's face.

I've become accustom to the standard variance, but this ~300k hands of Ev adjusted runbad is new to me.

It feels as if I've had an above average number of card distribution coolers. Obv could be personal bias, I'd welcome to chance to run some sort of report to confirm/deny these thoughts.

FWIW this isn't me crying about running bad; just curious about other's views on this type of variance.

I did touch on it but I didn't specify. This is a MTT graph

you aren't a 10bb winner turned 3bb winner over night or w/e, you are whatever wr you currently are at now until that changes

[ ] OP is a 3bb winner who was running hot
[ ] OP is a 10bb winner who is running cold
[ ] OP has become know-it-all, arrogence and hubris are leading to deteriorating play
[x] OP has forgotten the art of folding rivers, should study threads in BBV for enlightenment and inspiration

You're paying too much attention to the title. Get clickbaited more

[x] OP is just here for people to talk to while locked in grinding.

That being said more experience with poker is required. Unfortunately no amount of time in the lab can teach the lessons that time can. (although it can speed it up)

Don't touch me.

If you fold more rivers your EV will improve OP.

im just pointing out you don't know anything about statistics, proof is you made this thread

unless you made this thread bc you think a b/e stretch is an interesting and thread worthy subject, in which case i just dunno

What games u play?


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Just to check, the 600k hands are all at the same limit, right?

Is this play money or real $? Just checking.

I get bored just thinking about 600 thousand hands of play money

Trolling is pretty much what BBV is for, if you want a more serious discussion you should post in BQ.

Besides games above $50 are you playing other games higher than your previous buy in? Playing a higher ABI would seem like an obvious reason for your win rate to be lower.

Are you playing more tables per hour?

Is this actual advice?

Never claimed to be a statistician. I also never claimed to be an experienced poker player. This is a thread asking about variance.


They're hands from low-mid stakes MTTs, all the hands at $54+ buyin are shown.

ABI has increased, but the increase in ABI is all from the graph that I showed at $54+ so the loss of winrate isn't caused by that.

I cut some of the lower value, low stake games (-22 none PSKO, none major... with a few exepections depending on number of tables.)

I used to play 15 tables then dropped to 12. (I dropped these games around the 500k hand mark)