From 10BB winner to 3BB winner overnight? - Page 2

Its possible you were running above expectation for a while and now its evening out. Another possibility is that you're now running poorly and it will even out eventually. I know it seems like 450k+ is a huge sample size and stats should be pretty accurate, but life is weird and random and human brains are not good at understanding variance and long term variance.

Also, thanks for this post.

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02-28-2017 , 10:58 AM

#27

Briro2017

banned

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 858

Quote:

Originally Posted by pur3decided

I'm going to be very careful how I word this so I don't sound like a idiot accusing online poker of being rigged (this isn't what I believe)

I have a weird oddity with my chipEV graph. Around the ~430k hand mark my winrate changed... for a prolonged time. Prior to this the majority of my sessions would end with me winning chips. But overnight I started running extremely poorly. I chalked it up as variance.. Which is what it is.

I'm wondering if anyone else has had something like this happen? Is this a normal occurrence?

I didn't make any drastic changes to my game, if anything I'm always working on improving my game and in this time I can only assume my winrate should be increasing.... Not decreasing by 65%

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02-28-2017 , 02:03 PM

#28

FranFran

Fran and stuff

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 20,451

mtt winrates in bb/100 itt. ... masturbating...

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02-28-2017 , 03:54 PM

#29

NeverCalling

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 151

IT MAKES SO MUCH MORE SENSE NOW.

OP, you're a misleading and irrational human being. I hope you know that the amount of sense your original post makes with corrections directly correlates to your inability to reconcile your variance.

tl;dr your metric is honest to God awful. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

also post#40

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02-28-2017 , 05:25 PM

#30

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by FranFran

mtt winrates in bb/100 itt. ... masturbating...

Would you rather I measured by poker ability in $ won? Would that be a more suitable guide? How about ROI?6

Quote

02-28-2017 , 05:26 PM

#31

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverCalling

You're making wild and incorrect assumptions about the nature of my post.

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02-28-2017 , 05:31 PM

#32

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverCalling

misleading and irrational human being

After 30 seconds of research I've come to the conclusion you're just an ass-hole troll that knows nothing about poker. Or if you do know anything you chose not to post it. Every 1 of your 40 posts is negative.

I conclude you're just a busto fish who has nothing better to do that sit on 2p2 trolling.

We'll see where you are in 5 years and we'll see where I am in 5 years.

Cya in the lab....

......You assclown

Quote

02-28-2017 , 05:39 PM

#33

FranFran

Fran and stuff

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 20,451

no online poker in 5 years

Quote

02-28-2017 , 05:44 PM

#34

LoctoBong

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 349

fkn play money yo

Quote

02-28-2017 , 05:54 PM

#35

NeverCalling

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 151

Quote:

Originally Posted by pur3decided

1.After 30 seconds of research I've come to the conclusion you're just an ass-hole troll that knows nothing about poker. Or if you do know anything you chose not to post it. Every 1 of your 40 posts is negative.

2.I conclude you're just a busto fish who has nothing better to do that sit on 2p2 trolling.

3.We'll see where you are in 5 years and we'll see where I am in 5 years.

4.Cya in the lab....

5.......You assclown

1.The odds of you looking through all of my posts=0. Also, I do know enough to see that you're just salty about your "winrate" taking a dive. Sun-run is over, ol' chap.

2.Well done, you're getting the hang of BBV

3.I'll still be doing what I do and you'll still be trying to figure out why bb/100 in tournament poker isn't the best way to examine results

4.No, you won't

5.Original!

Quote

02-28-2017 , 07:51 PM

#36

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoctoBong

fkn play money yo

Can confirm it isn't

Quote

02-28-2017 , 07:54 PM

#37

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverCalling

Sun run is over? I've made more money during this EV downswing that ever before when it was higher... Soo.... Less chips but more $? I'll cry myself to sleep looking out of the window of my city centre apartment.

FWIW, how would you measure large field MTT results? Because $ is highly inaccurate so is ROI.

Brb with 500k game sample so we can understand how winrates even work and stabilize in large field MTTs.

Quote

02-28-2017 , 09:12 PM

#38

NeverCalling

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 151

[x]Further contriving the original purpose of this thread with more relevent information that should have be included in the OP

Personally I would use a combination of ROI(3rd), an outside observer(2nd) and bb/100(1st/maybe tied with 2nd) when shorter stacked as an idea of where I sit.

You're looking at things from a narrow perspective. Now back to being my usual self!

Spoiler:

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02-28-2017 , 10:31 PM

#39

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverCalling

Spoiler:

Ciao then

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02-28-2017 , 10:32 PM

#40

pur3decided

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 319

Quote:

Originally Posted by FranFran

no online poker in 5 years

I feel4u

Quote

03-01-2017 , 12:10 AM

#41

Rich Checkmaker

banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 2,441

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s

[ ] OP is a 3bb winner who was running hot
[ ] OP is a 10bb winner who is running cold
[ ] OP has become know-it-all, arrogence and hubris are leading to deteriorating play
[x] OP has forgotten the art of folding rivers, should study threads in BBV for enlightenment and inspiration

here is your answer. you are playing worse. you looked at your graph or summat and its like looking a gift horse in the mouth.

edit: this is tourney poker??? GTFO

Quote

03-01-2017 , 12:33 AM

#42

Nick_AA

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,458

I will go ahead and speak for everyone. OP stfu and gfy.

Close this thread down now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

03-01-2017 , 01:12 PM

#43

dreddie

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 232

So i did the math, like you should have done. Your title is very misleading !

Your winrate first 430k hands is 3.7 BB/100
Your winrate last 250k hands is 2 bb/100

Your overall winrate is 3 BB/100

The chance of running 3.7 while actual is 3 over 430k hands is 28%
The chance of running 2 while actual is 3 over 250k hands is 27%

So at first it may seams weird. Especially since your title is a total lie. (people are idiots)
The variance is totally fine within the normal chance.
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
(variance set at 100, with tourney's this is probely higher ??)

So next time when you accuse someone of trolling, dont be the troll yourself !!

Quote

03-01-2017 , 02:48 PM

#44

NeverCalling

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 151

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich Checkmaker

here is your answer. you are playing worse. you looked at your graph or summat and its like looking a gift horse in the mouth.

edit: this is tourney poker??? GTFO

Agree

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nick_AA

I will go ahead and speak for everyone. OP stfu and gfy.

Close this thread down now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreddie

Honestly I'm surprised someone actually caught this but HELLA AGREE

Quote

03-01-2017 , 03:54 PM

#45

rakemeplz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 12,648

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreddie

Swongs are 1 thing

Quote

05-24-2017 , 08:09 AM

#46

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

bump

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