go play 200/400, you're due imo

so sick

Wow
Just wow
..

Why isn't the highest point of the graph at 50%? Isn't he equally as likely to run good as he is to run bad?

This is quite entertaining....Like I said before, once in a while I'll send a vent post to fulltilt and let them feel my frustration. I figured why not send them a link to this thread and maybe if they realize the entire poker community feels sorry for me, maybe they would show some grace.....

me:
> Original Message Follows:
> ------------------------
> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=230387
>
> Thanks for the wonderful run this year Full Tilt. It has been nice to
> get robbed on the turn and river for 6 straight months.
>
>


FT:
> Hello Zachary,
>
> Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.
>
> As an avid poker player, I certainly understand your frustrations with bad beats and general negative variance. I have myself been through prolonged streaks of both good and bad luck.
>
> Please be assured that our shuffle is random.
>
>
> Understand that there is no "doom switch" but there certainly is statistical variance. It is only when speaking of tens of thousands of hands that personal statistics begin to approach its theoretical expectation. For players that play this game for a living, it is imperative that they keep a very large bankroll to endure such fluctuation. It is often the level of honesty that separates an excellent player from someone who is merely above average.
>
> I strongly suggest that you visit the poker forums in the link below; it is the largest poker forum that is visited by many poker enthusiasts such as yourself, and is an unbiased third party to our site (and any other poker sites in business). I believe that the voice of the general poker community will be more persuasive in dissuading you of your belief that online poker is rigged.
>
> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/
>
> On behalf of Full Tilt Poker, I wish you the best of luck at the tables. Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.
>
> Regards,
>
> Matthew G
> Full Tilt Poker Support

me:
Matthew thanks for the reply. Yes, I've heard of twoplustwo.com, I am
a well-known member there and I made this post there on how I have run
on full tilt: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...d.php?t=230387
. I guess I just need to vent to someone. If there is any chance,
any chance at all that FullTilt aknowledges that I am a valuable
player to the site who has played over 250,000 hands on the site, and
realizes that I've been dealt a terrible run of cards, maybe you guys
could throw me a bone and give me some sort of "bad beat" bonus. I am
quite sure that I am in the top .01% of players in terms of running
bad. Anyways, thanks for wishing me good luck and the quick response.
Here's to you Full Tilt.

-sluggger5x

FT:
Hello Zachary,

Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.

I did have a look at your graph Zachary, and I will admit it looks to be one of the worst I have seen. We do apologize for the bad run of cards, it appears you are experiencing.

With that being said, unfortunately we do not offer a promotional bonus for players just because they are unable to win consistently at a certain limit.

What I can offer you, should be far more valuable and rewarding though. The doom switch on your account has been turned off and it is now completely up to you, on wether or not you win or lose. Start playing with some confidence again Zachary and most importantly stay positive. I can tell by the statistics under your account that you are a decent winning Poker player.

So if you decide to continue your play on Full Tilt Poker, I would like to wish you the best of luck on the tables. Also, please don't hesitate to contact us if there is anyway we can be of assistance.

Regards,

Matthew G



Full Tilt Poker Support

He is, the graph is symmetrical. It is a probability density function not a cumulative distribution function.

stop being so retarded.

Would you mind explaining this in a language that a history grad would understand?

I kind of get what you're saying, that if it were cumulative it wouldn't be a bell curve, it would just go straight up at an angle correct?. but what would it mean exactly if he were at the 40% point in the graph, and how does 40% relate to this?

I opened this expecting a thread about Omaha8. Instead I found a tale of horror and woe. So, basically what I expected.

Um... Why is FT trying to educate fish?

fwiw, back in March, in a one week period I turned $50 into $4000 by cashing in in some tourneys, playing 5-10, then 8-16, then 15-30 lhe (I'm a casual player, so bankroll management isn't high on my list). It was by far the sickest I've ever run.

So it all evens out

This is the standard normal distributive curve: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

The red graphs are the ones important to us.

Mostly we would not ask how what the probability is that Hero runs at exactly mean, but more often we ask what is the probability that Hero runs in whatever range. Within 1 standard deviation of the mean would be 68.2%, for instance, while less than one standard dev below would be 15.9%, etc.

In the case of this program, we have the distribution of winnings, and we know how much Hero has won, so we simply compute the probability that Hero has won <= that amount, which is where the 0.0039% number comes from. If slugger had won exactly the mean, it would be 50%.

What, you think all those ****ing luckboxes out there who run dozens of stacks above EV are going to post their EV graph for everyone to see?

Another 3+ standard deviation running bad player. Seriously, how the **** do you guys keep playing? Are you perpetually unlucky in other aspects of life?

Yeah the cumulative distribution function of this distribution would go up and it would look kind of like an integral symbol. Btw because he is equally as likely to run better as he is to run worse than expectation, at the 0 point that function has the value of 0.5.
But in the probability density function, the values in themselves have basically no meaning because the probability that his winnings will be exactly let's say $1205 is 0. This is because it is a continuous function (Like if you pick a number from 1 to 10, the chance that you pick 5 is 0 because there's an infinite number of numbers between 1 and 10 -- it does not actually apply to poker but w/e).
An area under this graph shows the likelihood that the result will fall in that interval. So in the original graph that p=0.0039 meant that the area under the graph between -infinite and -4825.4 is 0.0039.