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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 08-20-2008, 03:31 AM   #421
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Re: 08 so far...

slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost
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Old 08-20-2008, 03:38 AM   #422
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Re: 08 so far...

yah that would really determine whether your playing good/running bad, or playing meh/running bad etc, etc.

not making any judgements, but ev graphs have a lot of grey area imo.



tbh, even if you did this, it still wouldn't include the time you have been coolered/coolered people and running bad in 3bet pots/bluff spots.
if you went through extensive research and tried to include all these things it would probably give you a much better idea to how exactly how bad/(good lol) you are running.


tbn^2 all of this would probably be -ev and a huge waste of time.


gl at running better
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Old 08-20-2008, 03:45 AM   #423
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
I was bored and was playing around with the filter tab on Holdem Manager. These are all pots where I had 70% equity with all the money going in. Pretty entertaining actually...



my god that was painful to watch...i don't know how you are still playing. good luck to you.
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:07 AM   #424
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Re: 08 so far...

That video is imo the best horror movie I have ever watched. Gut wrenching and really scary.
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:40 AM   #425
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Re: 08 so far...

IS THIS WHOLE THREAD FOR REAL? I MEAN I RUN BAD... I GO PLAY LIVE FOR A WEEK. OR I CHANGE SITES OR I CHANGE FROM SNGS TO CASH OR SOMETHING...

dude its broken you cant fix it. try something else, rinse, repeat.

take a break and then try something else.

use a friends account or something; im sure your psychologically ****ed at this point and this thread isnt helping.
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:47 AM   #426
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Re: 08 so far...

He only loses a 70/30 every 2400 hands...he runs like god.
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Old 08-20-2008, 01:52 PM   #427
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost

I did "<30% underdog and sucked out" and found that I sucked out 96 times! Still 40 times less than when I was sucked out on though.

What if I set the all in win% at 50% and see how many pots I win/lose + and - 50%??
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Old 08-20-2008, 02:03 PM   #428
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Re: 08 so far...

Another important question: why have you still monies to play with?
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:04 PM   #429
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vantek View Post
slugger, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do the same for hands where you were
1) >70% leader and won
2) <30% underdog and sucked out
3) <30% underdog and lost
Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg

Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg

Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg


So for all-in pots it looks like:

I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90

I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40

I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65

I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75

Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305

Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times

Last edited by sluggger5x; 08-20-2008 at 05:10 PM.
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Old 08-20-2008, 05:54 PM   #430
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
Ok, I broke down the variance in 4 ways using the HEM filter:

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...n50wonhand.jpg

Got all-in 50%+ favorite and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/89e82fc2.jpg

Got all-in 50%- underdog and won:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/dcba959b.jpg

Got all-in 50$- underdog and lost:
http://i284.photobucket.com/albums/l...g/534b650a.jpg


So for all-in pots it looks like:

I got my money in ahead and won 1,528 hands and won $88,678.90

I got my money in ahead and lost 483 hands and lost -$24,158.40

I got my money in behind and won 323 hands and won $18,411.65

I got my money in behind and lost 1,354 hands and lost -$87,716.75

Got my money in ahead 2,011 times for +$64,520
Got my money in behind 1,677 times for -$69,305

Sucked out on: 483 times
Sucked out: 323 times
The numbers at the last don't decide how lucky/unlucky you were, they should be ratio's of the total numbers. Also, you might be getting it in ahead with a lower % win chance & getting it in behind with a higher % win chance. Or whatever. But that's what PokerEV's for. Numbers like these are retarded, since they're not meaningful at all. Asymmetrical distributions
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:12 PM   #431
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Re: 08 so far...

UNINSTALL THE CANCER!!!!
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:26 PM   #432
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Re: 08 so far...

Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
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Old 08-20-2008, 09:27 PM   #433
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig View Post
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
lol at Lou Gehrig post
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Old 08-21-2008, 12:05 AM   #434
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouGehrig View Post
Consider yourself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.

imo
lmao. I love Lou Gehrig.
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Old 08-21-2008, 01:20 AM   #435
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Re: 08 so far...

wait, you quit?
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