Quote:
Originally Posted by NedSchneebly
I would say a standard lag would generally not have a check range here on this type of a board. I also like the call vs BTN-HJ, fold vs LJ-UTG range as well. Out of curiosity, how would you actually explain using range math what the best play would be here. Thanks!
I think a LAG will have a pretty clear check behind range consisting of pocket pairs JJ and lower that aren't a set and their Ace highs. I believe a LAG will bet everything above JJ and then a good chunk of everything below A hi (since a lot of that will be straight draws). Obviously the more of the latter we have, the more we want to call.
This is a quick guess at the situation against a BTN -3:
Code:
PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.8.2.1
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 80.0% 80.0% 0% {QQ+, 77, 44, AQs+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, AQo+, KTo+, QJo}
Player 2: 20.0% 20.0% 0% {ATo}
Board: [Kh Qd 4s 7c ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}
Monte Carlo Simulation: 450000 trials
And BTN -2:
Code:
PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.8.2.1
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 74.2% 74.2% 0% {QQ+, 77, 44, AQs+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 86s, AQo+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo}
Player 2: 25.8% 25.8% 0% {ATo}
Board: [Kh Qd 4s 7c ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}
Monte Carlo Simulation: 450000 trials
Obviously both situations, we have slightly better than needed immediate odds to call (4.25:1), but given it's a bit of an RIO hand, and assuming a high rate of straight draw bluffing, I'd feel good about folding the former and probably call the latter.