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Old 05-17-2017, 11:39 AM   #26
DeathDonkey
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
What are the odds that the Kangaroo is good here?


This is the wrong question. If we somehow knew the answer to this poker would be incredibly easy. But we don't. So against some guys you are good virtually always and others virtually never. Since we don't know who is who or have perfect information we need some sort of close to unexploitable strategy. Clearly you are very high up in your check back and call turn range. The board ran out very well for our hand too.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:52 AM   #27
SetofJacks
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

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Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
In the hand the Kangaroo did check. The turn came 6. Villian bets, Kangaroo calls, seems like folding is out of the question. River is the 2. Villian bets again. Kangaroo decides to call.

What are the odds that the Kangaroo is good here?
50/50.
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:09 PM   #28
leavesofliberty
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

Seems like to me the villian's range is either an Ace, a King, a set, or an airball. Some of the aces and sets potentially re-raise like AQ+, AA, KK (though some flat 100% of their range), and perhaps 55,66. So, without too much calculation, I think there's going to be a lot of airballs, and you'll win perhaps around 2/3 times here.

Spoiler:


I think QQ, and QJ are candidates towards the weaker side of the check-back range, planning to fold to a bet on the turn.
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:26 PM   #29
SetofJacks
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

I would expect villain to have an ace or a strong king a large percentage of the time, because it's fairly easy to read the kangaroo as having a weakish hand that wants to show down.

That being said, in kangaroo's spot, I'd bet flop, check turn, call river.
If c/r on flop I'd fold turn UI.
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Old 05-18-2017, 12:08 AM   #30
avoidthe9to5
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

I'd highly recommend studying game theory. The thought process here is severely flawed + should be grounded in fundamentals
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:47 AM   #31
leavesofliberty
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

Then write the book. The only similar book I know of is "The Mathematics of Poker" by Chen.
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Old 05-22-2017, 03:21 AM   #32
leavesofliberty
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

It seems like you can't decide whether you want to share your knowledge to the world with a book, or keep it hidden as a kind of occult knowledge that only you can possibly understand. Regardless, this is how you come across in your posting style.

Spoiler:


I mean, clearly there is a market for your coming book, and you aren't shy about doing commentary and such, and already have a fan base. I don't see what you are waiting for.
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Old 05-24-2017, 09:40 PM   #33
UpHillBothWays
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Re: Value Checkaroo? 15/30 @ Valuetown, NV

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
It seems like you can't decide whether you want to share your knowledge to the world with a book, or keep it hidden as a kind of occult knowledge that only you can possibly understand. Regardless, this is how you come across in your posting style.

Spoiler:


I mean, clearly there is a market for your coming book, and you aren't shy about doing commentary and such, and already have a fan base. I don't see what you are waiting for.
why not be thankful for what he does share and not demand a book? not everybody who studies that hard wants to put it into a book that may not sell that well and thus may not be worth the time and effort, not to mention the cost of putting his hard work out there for everybody to benefit from.
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