8-handed.

UTG raises. he is 45-50, and is a winning LAGTAG semi-pro and a strong hand-reader. he tends not to spew in bad spots and is capable of FPS. 2 coldcalls and BTN 3bets. BTN is piss-drunk, raising every hand, and is stuck 5 racks. i coldcall QJs from the BB. 5 ways, 15.5 SB.

flop KT8r, i have BDFD. i check, UTG checks, another player donks, BTN raises, i coldcall, UTG thinks for a second and coldcalls. donker calls. 4 ways, 23.5 SB.
turn 9, all check to BTN who bets, i raise, UTG quickly coldcalls, flop donker folds, BTN 3bets, i cap, UTG coldcalls. 3 ways, 23.25 BB.
river Q, i bet, UTG snap-raises, BTN 3bets. i am confident i am ahead of BTN, but am no longer closing the action. can i fold, knowing that UTG is very likely to cap?

If you don't lose a lot of money with the second nuts, you didn't play it right.

Less glib: UTG's play just doesn't make sense to me for AJ, not with the postflop coldcalling. Especially with the turn play, he's taking a lot of heat for a gutshot draw.

I think you're looking at a hand with a jack in it; suited KJ perhaps, or (somewhat less likely, given the action) JJ or another QJ.

BTN could well have gotten lucky with AJ; in which case, nice hand, sir, very well played.

AJ is not a gutshot on the turn, sir. It's over-ended. In a pot of this size folding it would be a catastrophe.

I'd have donked the turn actually cause I really don't trust drunk guys to bet on the button.

On the river....I'd never fold. Doesn't mean it's right.

I also don't fold. I expect he has a Jack, but JJ makes at least as much sense as AJ. Specifically I'd like that he hesitated on the flop, since with AJ there's really zero decision other than call, and it's not like he can hollywood on the flop to disguise a two card straight against a nuts-turned-second-nuts on the river.

is this dave? he has AJ like 99% of the time

I donk the turn as well

You are getting 10:1 assuming it gets capped. And 15:1 if it only goes 3 bets.

But you are chopping 3 ways if you are fortunate enough to win. So you are essentially getting 3.3:1 which isn't enough to call, IMO. If button is totally ******ed and doesn't have a J I still think 5:1 is not enough to call.

Nevertheless I would call. And hope it doesn't get capped. Then when it gets capped I would call and hope its just a bid to make me fold.

Every time I'm in these spots I call and lose to the nuts.

1. I think I fold pre some percentage and cap some percentage depending on the game flow. And if I cap I probably check a decent percentage of boards.

2. I'd donk the turn as Jesse said and hope to b/3b. Having the turn checked through would be atrocious.

3. You are not ahead of the button. I have never seen someone ******ed enough to put this action and 3b the river w/o a jack unless he's blind and drunk and misread the board and action this far. Even AA/KKK would stop at some point. QJ makes perfect sense for drunk.

4. Villain dependant. Play poker. Against most if he made it to the river w/ AJ pay the man his money. FWIW if I'm utg and had a jack I'd hollywood and 3bet this cuz you and drunk both CAN'T have AJ.

5. Neither pro daves would make it to the river w/o turning a nfd. Dave who plays lowball always would have AJ but in a billion universes would never make it to the river. The other one would 3bet to fold you out.

3bet the flop pretty much always. On the river you chop with JTs and lose to AJ. How many combos of JTs depends on details not listed so do some math and make a fold (I'm assuming KJ doesn't play the flop this way). But yeah, getting UTG to fold getting 21:3 instead of letting him in for 20:2 on the flop is gonna be a good thing for you with the majority of his range, especially given all the outs you have versus Button maniac and getting it HU or 3ways would be pretty awesome given the size of the pot. Folding out AQ or AJ here would be pretty fantastic if you ask me. Or QTs or JTs which are both in his PF range here I would think. AQ might not be though 'cause he would've capped, but who knows. But yeah, 3bet the flop for sure.

alan/bakku/jesse/dchan: villain is dave f.

if i'm utg in this hand i wouldn't want a 7 on the river

how can you ever fold this?

I think the real thing to consider here is what % of the time will the BB raise this river with worse than OP's hand. If you have considerable history and you feel that he's rarely puting in a raise for value with less than what you have, then calling and having him cap is a ****** spot. However, considering that the button is the one stirring the action and you look like you're isolating, I don't think folding is an option.

Really not a good idea to name villains in a strat post. Oaks 30-60 regs were talking about this thread at the table last week. The terribad nit lawyer now makes a point of asking me when we're head-up if I'm going to "blog about this hand on Two By Two."

please stop thinking about folding in this game.