Jesse said that he is reasonably certain BB had QQ+. If that's true are you calling his 3 bet on flop getting like 9-1?

Conflict resolved.

Yes? I'm pretty sure we have the equity to call against that range.

My guess is that the ep had K,9 or total air, was on tilt and gave up or was not smart enough to raise the river. Although people do have a tendency to instant muck when something like this happens so he may have indeed had KK.

Combined Leslie and Andy reference. Both alive at last tally.

And I don't think either of us were giving Jesse grief either. Just different opinions.

I think the fold comes when it is 3 bet on the flop.

If I counted right, it is going to be 9:1 the first time around and 7:1 (21:3) the times it gets capped behind us.

If they have the ranges we think they have it looks like we are short?


Board: 9s 9d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 07.305% 07.27% 00.03% 100884 432.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 46.348% 44.05% 02.30% 611010 31836.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 46.348% 44.05% 02.30% 611010 31836.00 { QQ+ }

Board: 9s 9d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 07.503% 04.47% 03.03% 108552 73560.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.813% 25.49% 04.32% 618678 104964.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 62.684% 61.37% 01.31% 1489626 31884.00 { QQ+ }

That's only if we know EP caps it. Against people described by Jesse - EP will generally be wider on the initial raise than QQ+. Of course, once he caps it we know we aren't getting the odds - but we don't know he is going to cap it with any degree of certainty. All he's done is 3bet preflop and raise the flop, hell there are some guys who are still super wide here (not saying that's the case in this instance, but auto assuming QQ+ before the cap is a mistake).

I just ran a stove and it seems like if we assume 99+ on EP we are just right at about 11% equity. But, my assertion is that EP shows up with something not 99+ a decent portion of the time. Of course, some villains will be snug here but this is 40/80 at Commerce - I see guys every hour described how Jesse described who blow their brains out here trying to see a free turn or check back the river with weakish end of their range.

I will defer to your knowledge of how the game plays currently since I haven't sat in it for quite a while. I just think we are slightly short the first time and very short the second time. I don't think Jesse is wrong with his assumptions and I doubt that EP is that wide unless he is ******ed. The preflop action of old guy cold capping from the big is just so strong vs 2 early players. If the EP has TT here I very much doubt he raises this flop so when he does we should anticipate a cap at a pretty high percentage. Kinda splitting hairs I know and the flop play is pretty close but someone asked when AK would fold.

I like this thread a lot.

If you're not comfortable c/folding the river, and QQ/JJ never bluff raises (both seem like comfortable assumptions), then donking seems like the best play. It's basically a freeroll to get KK to fold.

I would probably be so annoyed at my chances to scoop the pot that on the river I'd snap check, but if I thought about it ahead of time I like your play a lot.

Obviously the results were in your favor, which they won't be most of the time, but the pot is big and trying to scoop it the ~15-20% of the time we are chopping is valuable.

edit: not to mention that we can still probably get a call out of BB if EP folds too some % of the time, which is awesome.

So what do you do if you are raised? Because if I had QQ or KK here in ep I would raise the river when you donked.

I fold. NH. I don't actually believe for a second you'd raise QQ/KK here, because it seems like you enjoy not incinerating money.

Well you may be right, but I wouldn't believe for a second that you had taken all that heat with AK so I'm not sure that I would raise with KK or just call. If I had air, which is a slight possibility here, that would be another story, then I most certainly raise. If you play enough mid stake poker you see donk bets all the time on the river by someone that thinks a bet might win the pot so it is an excellent situation to bluff raise (a good player that can lay down a hand). But i don't think you can lay down you hand to a raise. It's a crying call I believe.

Cosign. About 12x sweeter, really.

Lolmath

Wow, so many posts. Posting so I read this thread when sober.

About 30 posts in and I know the thread has probably ran its course, but I really really like this river bet.

Could fold a chop, can get value from a worse card, and doesn't cost us anything extra against a hand that beats us cause as described these people aren't ever bluffing here.

On the flop

My AK is hitting the muck before the BB is done pushing his 3-bet into the pot.