whoa wtf, i expect results and what happened tomorrow
how much did you drink?

Pretty sure I win the play-in game against DeathDonkey.

My favorite hand vs him:
I raise Q7o otb 3/6 chip structure he calls bb

Flop is like 964r
he c/r, I call

Turn J
he bets I raise

River T
he checks I beat almost nothing and certainly can't imagine a single better hand I can get to fold so I check

him: "you win I don't have anything"
me: "..."
him: "......"

He finally turns over K7o. I muck quietly although I'm sure I died a bit inside. Thank goodness this was only in a 300/600 game.

Well you don't have the preflop action right. there was two posters behind the button and it was five-way action to the flop since one poster actually folded. the limper was actually UTG. your raise was from UTG+1, so really your range should be much stronger than what you would have in MP making my call much more fishy than u give credit for which is why you love playing with me hence poker being so profitable

second, i didnt announce 9? i announced 9 period.

also congrats on the baby and the jackpot!

I think you two are talking about different erics

No, it's definitely the same Eric. Or should I say, "maniacfish" apparently.

Thanks, DD. That's the kind of explaination I was looking for.

And once again, it was a pleasure meeting you, Joe and Nate at the Hard Rock. It was an interesting conversation with some really interesting guys.

Sorry to interrupt all the potential commerce violence, but I wanted to talk a little about the diatribe boc4life was on the other day about live poker results / winrates, etc. What if I told you you could be a professional live 40/80 LHE player, with a solid 1 BB/hr winrate, and you can play a comfortable 2000 hours in a year, leaving plenty of free time for whatever else you want to do with the flexible life of a pro poker player. You'll make on average $160k per year to sit around and play some cards. Sounds pretty awesome to me. Let's investigate a little further though...

My assumptions are that you make 1 BB/hr (which is imo above average for people who post on this forum, happy to debate this), get 33 hands /hr (which works out nicely so I can just multiply numbers by 3 to convert from "per hour" to "per 100 hands"), and have a standard deviation of 12 BB/hr (which I averaged from my statking results for over 1000 hrs of 20/40+). Here are the results of 100 such pros:



So yeah on average 160k per year, but how'd you like to be that guy with the red line on the bottom, stuck over 1k bets in a few months! And what about those green and blue line guys at the top that we used to play with in the 40/80 and oh there they are sitting 400/800 with a big stack of white chips and a ****-eating grin on their face?

You guys are welcome to play more with this fun tool: http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/

<3 u for posting this chris. it is a truth that can never be told enough times, we are so resistant to really understanding it.

What standard dev did you use to generate this? 13bb/hour?

Lol 12...I read bad

This is why I think it's important to play games where you don't just win...you dominate. With a higher wr these get a lot better.

Once again, I get to publicly demonstrate just how ignorant I really am. Wtf does <3 mean?

its a

It's a heart,.

I was the glorious green line like 3 years ago. Now I'm the red line of shame. As usual Mike L was right. Limit holdem is a joke.

Eric I hope you gave your sister back her pink earbud headphones after you used them at the Rio, they didn't really look good on you =P

DD,

Sorry, but I think this is bogus. You took a standard dev of 12*80 per hour of live play (reasonable) and just multiplied it by 3 to get a standard dev of 2880 (36 big bets) per 100 hands. I am 97% sure it does not work like that. Paging callypigian (sp) to back me up.

Try running the graph by tricking the simulator:

$80 win rate
12*80 st dev/100
200,000 hands

I believe this is the "correct" simulation to show results of 2000 hours.

lol i just blew off 32k at 1/2 in about 100 minutes. my last two hands happened on both of my tables where i had sets cracked simultaneously where i lost the maximum on each street. i don't think that's ever happened to me before, though i guess i can brag that i can find new ways to lose money every day. thank goodness tableratings doens't work anymore for ftp otherwise they'd see my awesome 90k downer the past two weeks.

Admittedly chris might have a standard dev of more than 36 big bets per 100 hands. But for non-animals....

jesse, SD for 100 hands should sqrt(3)*SD per hour, assuming ~33 hands per hour. So SD is 20.8 given the 12/hr figure.

On my dog walk I realized this. You can sum variance, the square of standard dev. So stdev 12 is variance of 144. Total variance is 432. Sq root of 432 is 20.8.

So death....you need to run it either the way I said, or the way you did with a st dev of 20.8*80=1665 or so. Graph is still scary. But the **** eater only makes it to 200/400 and mr busto probaly loses 500 bets, not 1000.

Oh man, I wrote all that stuff and did it wrong

Anyway someone is welcome to plug new numbers into the tool, I just don't want to take the 2 min it takes to save a photo to photobucket again :P

Also Jesse I don't think anyone is capable of really beating 40/80+ for much more than I said. The best players I know beat the 40 for ~100.

your point still stands imo, especially considering this is for a full year of 40 hours a week, no vacation. I mean, do any of you live guys play close to that much?

Oh also, I don't know how this tool is implemented, but if they are just sampling from a normal distribution the individual lines actually won't be correct, even though the final results will be. You'd need to sample from actual data on money won/lost each hand, and when you do that, iirc, the graphs get a lot more wild.

jfc 'a lot more wild' you say

faaaaaaaaantastic

I don't disagree. But even mediocre players like me can beat 20/40 for 50, which would produce graphs of the same shape.

I bet it's just sampling hours.

I will check, but figure to log 1800 hours this year.