Not the final results, just the ups and downs of the individual graphs (chance of having a downswing of X, etc). The variance of where you land at the end of the year would be the same. Also, I am only guessing that they are sampling from a normal distribution; they may be using actual data and sampling from that, but probably not imo.

Huh? Surely they are sampling a normal distribution for each hour. What are you suggesting?

So the individual graphs, each is like your own graph in PT or HM. Those graphs are generated by your actual wins each hand of poker. If you make a histogram of this underlying distribution -- call it the LHE distribution -- it is most certainly not normal.

So you can't just take a normal distribution with the same mean and SD of a LHE distribution, and then generate a graph from it. The flucutations in the graph will be different -- in particular, the graphs from a normal dist will be less swingy. That last part is from memory, because at some point I made a simulator to do it the right way, based on my actual hand data.

I think that the distibution for an hour of hands (or 100) converges to the normal distribution. In fact I'm pretty sure that for any random process, as you add trials, the resultant outputs distribution converges to the normal distribution.

From Wikipedia:

By the central limit theorem, any variable that is the sum of a large number of independent factors is likely to be normally distributed. For this reason, the normal distribution is used throughout statistics, natural science, and social science[1] as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an experiment is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and the propagation of uncertainty is computed using this assumption.

So the way to think of this is the following. If you flipped 100 coins 100 times and then graphed the number of heads you came up with, it would look like the normal distribution. If you played 100 hands 100 times and graphed the number of bets you won or lost, the graph would look like the normal distribution. Admittedly flipping 1000 coins would be better, as would playing 1000 hands, but 100 does the job just fine.

The simulator that DD used almost assuredly just pulls a result for each 100 hand chunk (660 in his example) and tacks the result onto the graph. gaming mouse is right that the graph would be more "swingy" if they used actual hand data, but not in the way he described. Each graph line would be "correct" at each of the 660 100 hand demarcations. The line between those points would be very swingy (like you see in online players graphs), but the start and end points would be the same.

Jesse,

Not to be obnoxious, but I have a MS in Statistics. I know what the CLT is. Yes, if you grouped the hands into chunks, you could apply the CLT. I was assuming that they weren't doing that. But now that you point it out, I'm sure they are. So ya, the missing variance won't really affect the way these graphs looks, we are zoomed out so far.

1000 players playing 2000 hours at $50 per hour and a standard dev of $440 per hour (my numbers for live 20/40).

you put 200000 for number of hands, which would imply 100 hand/hr.

My idea is that it would simulate playing 2000 hours in my case, as the $50 and $440 are my numbers per hour, not per 100 hands.

Spot on

I never claimed you didn't know about the CLT...mostly I looked it up for myself and the benefit of others here who could learn from it

ah got it. numbers come out very similar.

so basically, for a 20/40 player, a good year is more than twice as good as a bad year, and a really bad year is like school teacher salary.

and this is all assuming you treat it like a 9-5 job, which pretty much nobody does. When you put in a more reasonable 1400 hours, things look even worse.

That's one thing I've taken out of all of this. There is a BIG difference in how long things can go badly for players who put in 40 hours a week and others who only put in 25. You don't want to quit your job to play poker 80 hours a week, but if you don't put in enough hours while playing LHE your downswings can lost a long friggin' time.

PSA: Anyone who plays on the Cake network beware. You should read the thread in the Zoo called "CakePoker closing down accounts". Read the OP and then skip to this post:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=139

Really scary stuff.


mod edit: before any of you waste your time reading this thread, guy who made the thread is a known troll, 99% chance all his accusations are made up

breaking streaks, beginning new ones
1-9 last 10 times ive flopped a set. broke my 5 set losing streak winning a nice pot during my first 30 minutes today, then proceeded to flop 3 more sets and lose em all. oh yeah, QQ < JT on Q77 one flop the other day, lol...then this online in 1st tourney i sign up for when i got back from the nightmare at the cardroom to build on my new streak.

Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t30 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t3640 M = 5.64
BB: t3280 M = 5.09
Hero (UTG): t3975 M = 6.16
UTG+1: t1970 M = 3.05
UTG+2: t3100 M = 4.81
MP1: t5495 M = 8.52
MP2: t3870 M = 6
CO: t3190 M = 4.95
BTN: t4595 M = 7.12

Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is UTG with 3 3
Hero raises to t650, 4 folds, CO calls t650, 2 folds, BB calls t400

Flop: (t2345) T 2 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t750, CO calls t750, BB calls t750

Turn: (t4595) Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2545 all in, CO calls t1760 all in, BB folds

River: (t8115) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t8115
Hero shows 3 3 (three of a kind, Threes)
CO shows T T (three of a kind, Tens)
CO wins t8115

ya but original OP got banned and is not really a credible source.

wow you just wasted 10 minutes of my life

being the good samaritan that i am, this entire thread was a troll.

guy made multiple accounts spreading false accusations including this one.

ya sorry, i wasted more than that. very weird. i know ppl lie and conceal all the time in those threads, but this is the first one i've seen that was just made up out of thin air. he did a pretty good job too....

I know its not my fault, but should I feel shady at all?

When I bet the river as a bluff or as a valuebet and get called, I instantly turn my hand over like it is the nuts very confidently regardless of the situation. I leave it up to my opponent to decide if they have me beat, I do not wish to give them that information for free.

So I raise JTo in the HJ and get called by both blinds.
Flop comes 689, I bet, SB calls.
Turn is an 8, I bet, SB calls.
River is a 3, no flush, I bet, SB calls.

I turn over my JT confidently, and he glances quickly and mucks. After the cards hit the muck, he rereads my hand and tries to grab for them, way too late. I win the pot.

Thoughts?

Edit: In cases like this when they might misread the board, I know it is possible for this exact situation to happen. I also do it when I have 65s on an KKQJ9 board.

Blah blah blah players protect their own hand blah blah blah.

All that said, if you have a special "I have the nuts" roll that you use only in spots where you are trying to steal the pot, it's kinda angle-ish. But if you roll your cards the same way everytime and this is a side effect, meh, so what.

An entire page wo a HowMany beat. What is happeneing here?

Longgggg post I made on DC about this topic, clipped relevant part here:

Finally, some really important stuff on the topic of getting people to muck winners. Because Chazb0t, your post scares me, as you seem to think it sounds awesome to do something that is highly unethical. Here is a valid way for someone to muck a winner (OTR15 alluded to it):

- On the river you call with king high, the guy mucks a better king high because he thinks he was bluffing.

- Betting the river, getting called, and showing your hand immediately without saying anything. I had one of these awhile back at commerce 60/120 where on the river a 4 flush came, and I bluff raised with AA without the flush, the guy called, I showed, and he thought he saw the Ace of flush but it was the other red ace, and he mucked quickly. I felt bad taking this pot because I knew what happened but I didn't know the guy and he didn't ask me to chop it or anything like that. I think this one is ethically fine but I still would split the pot with someone I knew better since he clearly had a flush and misread my hand from across the table.

Here are some ways to get people to muck winners that are angle shots and/or unethical:

- Announcing your hand in a sneaky way. I saw one of these at 100/200 at bellagio a couple weeks back, the board is 45656 and our 'hero' CRed the flop, bet turn and bet river. He announced "two pair" and showed his hand, 47s. The other player didn't look carefully and mucked ace high.

- Actually miscalling your hand. I don't think anyone here would do this but I've seen it. At showdown you turn your hand up and announce "straight" or "flush" when you have something close to one of those that might be mistaken by the other player for the actual hand. This is really really dirty.

- Taking a pot on a dealer or player error. If you turn up your hand, and someone turns up a better hand, and then either that player thinks his hand is no good (kicker on a board where kicker doesn't play for example) and turns it back face down, or the dealer mucks it, and you keep that pot, you are an awful awful person.

Here is the common thing about all the angle shots: you try to deceive during the showdown phase of the hand. Showdown is no longer a time for "poker", its just a time to make sure the rules are enforced correctly and fairly to all players. I will ALWAYS speak up if a showdown is being mis-awarded whether I was involved in the pot or not. I will NEVER get involved in a mid-hand problem that doesn't concern me, there is a huge difference between the two situations.

In before 'it wasn't a page (unless it has 100 posts on it)'.

I think I posted it in here before, but there was a case when I got all in vs someone on the turn, and announced 'two pair' and he didn't see the bottom card paired the board on the river (after I announced two pair) making his overpair good. I never saw his hand since he mucked instantly, so this is completely his fault more so than the JT hand. I should never say "Oh, I just got counterfeited" correct?

I know 100% of the time I roll what I suspect is the best hand the same as I do a bluff.

It is the very thin value bets that I roll differently, like when I bet 2nd pair on the river after turn got checked through and get called by two people, I have a different turn over there, since I am not sure of the outcome.

The nuts and the bluff I know the outcome when I am called, I get the pot, or I don't get the pot.

I don't think I post that many specific bad beats anyway because every time I play the nightmares I'm forced to live through in the game are too numerous to post. But going back through the last page it would seem that it is true I did not post any "oh my god I was so unlucky for the billionth straight session today" posts. Must be because I haven't played live while we were on that page.

As for getting people to muck winners at Commerce, I think people call just to see what you have in a lot of spots where you think they mucked the best hand. ie:

1. 60 game Hero raises co JTdd, tard calls bb. Flop 764 he c/r she call. Turn K she raises (I wanted to throw up too), he calls. River 6 he c/c. She shows JT high. He mucks and says "I misread my hand". He didn't even look back at his cards after he called. Clearly just embarassed that he called with nothing and was beat by a horribly played better nothing.

2. 60 game, Mike L was the witness. There is some action, final board is KT843 with two clubs. Guy 1 bets, guy 2 calls. Guy 1 says "I missed" and tables Jc9c. Guy 2 triumphantly yells "I KNEW YOU DIDN'T HAVE ANYTHING" and flips 5c2c. He is informed that he does not win the pot with 5 high. He does not care, he is just proud that he correctly knew guy 1 didn't have anything and that he called his bluff.

3. 60 game I barrel like Qh3h bvb on A2479 two hearts flop (probably bad 3 barrel), I flip my hand over and the dealer announces flush (river was a diamond so I did have 5 red ones). Guy immediately asks "flush?". I say "no flush". He looks at my cards a while and mucks. I felt bad about this one because I think there is a fair chance he mucked a better hand but aside from correcting the dealer's idiotic mistake I think I did all I needed to do, and considering the time he took to look at my hand I am slightly more confident that he just had a worse hand and was saving face since it's not too hard to see what Q3 makes on A2487 with no possible flushes.

DD, how would you feel about this one if I kept the pot?
1/2 mix at the Bike long time ago, game is T. I have 7532 going into the last draw, I drew 2/1/1, Villain went 2/1/pat. She checks last round, I squeeze out another 7 and fire. She calls. I say "I caught a 7 to go with the one I already had" and show my hand. She's annoyed and mucks, meaning she probably stopped listening to my little joke around the time I said "I caught a 7". Since villain is my friend I laugh and tell the dealer to ship her the pot. Roc thought that most people would keep the pot in this situation.

I almost never say anything and always turn my hand over the same way. I think avoiding the declaring part just keeps my can of worms closed. I also require my opponents cards to speak. Never fast roll as the caller.