A fair number don't want to 3b the turn.

Yea! Overfolding is for when ranges are asymmetrical + also when part of your range doesn't even beat their bluffs.

If opponents range is AA or 67s and yours is only KK, you should call KK at a gto freq. If you add 54s to your range, you should overfold the 54s and still call KK at the same freq... effectively "ignoring" the 54s. If you add QTs... 54s is still ignored, and KK/QTs call at gto freq.

It's pretty damn important when your opponents range has zero nonpaired hands in it & we have tons of missed draws. (Example, we raise btn, bb calls. Flop J76 he xr. Turn J765 he bets. River J7659 he bets. Most players almost never have nonpaired hands in their range and are "almost never" bluffing. It changes if he can have QT/KQ/T4s bdfd type hands though, which he should because of this)

As played the river seems like a textbook crying call, appreciate DD's post as always for being informative and insightful

I agree with basically everything you say and certainly agree with your A-T example. But i think if some random player decides to start bluff raising rivers against our c/r flop b/3b tuen range it's going to end up badly for him.

If I'm playing 2-4 vs a bunch of wizards I would muck face down (if I actually mucked).

But in my normal games I play a massively exploitable style (except with some players) and I think playing with fire is a lot of fun, and usually ends up far more profitable than a GTO approach

Yeah avoid nailed the math part. You are not exploited when you fold a hand that can't even beat a bluff.

A great player once told me that there is no always and never in LHE. If I am going to make this exploitive fold it is b/c I am >93% convinced villain would not bluff in thus particular spot or do this with exactly KdKs.

Assuming that previous street play was max ev vs the best counter strategy.

There are lots of nevers. If I said you should never open bottom 20% UTG that's probably correct

Yes, well while fish do interesting things when you tap the tank, and you can exploit that, I don't think showing and playing the meta game in this way is very good from a philosophical standpoint. There's no reason to tap the tank, and insist that your opponents think outside the box.

I'd say something like, "JJ never good here, is it?" And then fold, that way anyone who's watching carefully will know that there's nothing to see here, tard got spewy with JJ, and move along. It's far more believable than KK as your opponents would not ever even imagine folding it, let alone trying to bluff you off of it. Most opponents view your play with tunnel vision and assume you play roughly how they play, though not as many with the tunnel vision at the 40/80 level.

Also, if you're looking to make profitable lay downs, there's far more opportunities to make profitable laydowns in no-limit.

If you need your ego stroked on a daily basis, definitely show, otherwise, don't show. Honestly I wouldn't even post it.

I'm OK with your turn 3 bet and while not pleased it turned out this way when raised on the river my 8 chips are making it in there real quickly.

Yeah you've gotten some pretty good info that you're likely beat. I just think you win more than 1 in 13 as well as hate what it looks like when you sigh fold image wise.

Regarding how much it's worth when you have no shot at the pot? Not much to me. A couple dollars maybe? I don't think i'm gaining that much useful information. If i really somehow did make an exploitative fold (i wouldn't)...i wouldn't want to know as it'd be more likely to tilt me than help me.

You shouldn't need to 'learn' he has a bluff range here. He probably does. And at 13-1 with KK on that board/action lets see his cards.

what if we chop



#sarcasmNotSarcasm

Hands that dont beat a bluff always get a zero in the pay table, while hands that beat a bluff are +1 at some frequency. Counting the former, or changing their frequency, has no effect on the math because count *0= 0 and freq*0=0.

I've stayed out of this debate because it's all operating on a much higher level than I operate, but I do want to comment a bit on this.

Even if we assume a river b/f is bad for OP's image, that is only going to matter if the opponent is actually capable of taking advantage of it, and further is only going to matter if a situation comes up where the opponent CAN take advantage of it. And that seems to me to be a pretty rare set of circumstances.

With respect to my first point, very few people in limit hold 'em bluff enough rivers generally, and fewer still bluff enough rivers in big pots. Basically, players assume that they have no fold equity when there's a ton of money in the pot, at least unless some legitimately scary card hits (such as a fourth card to the flush that hits the player's range). You can probably count the number of people in midstakes games who will bluff raise a complete brick river in a giant pot against a player with a strong range. (For the record, avoidthe9to5 is one of them.)

And it's not just strategy, it's psychology. A big reason people don't bluff raise in these sorts of situations is because they have already put in a ton of money into the pot that they expect to lose. A bluff raise, even if it has the requisite pot odds and fold equity, is most of the time going to cost the player an additional big bet.

And another big reason is the opponent's own range is so laden with showdown value. To bluff-raise this river, you have to be willing to then fold to a three bet. Which takes a lot of guts if you have anything with even a pair in it. What if OP is 3-bet bluffing?

So I just don't think bet-folding this river is going to cost OP any table image points at all.

And then my second point, even if the opponent does take a mental note and says "I can bluff rivers if I get into that situation again", how often does this situation even recur? You need to have the players have big enough hands or draws that we get 2 bets in on the flop and then 3 more on the turn. Only then can the opponent then think "now I'll bluff raise the river and take OP off his overpair". And even if the situation did recur again, maybe the second time the OP could bet-call rather than bet-fold.

In other words, nice hand OP.

I think youre underestimating how many times opponents will have an opportunity to act on this. Its not like they can and would ONLY apply this to rivers in position with huge pots. This could easily swing turn-close-folds into raises cuz "hey I saw this guy fold what looked like sort of a big hand in a huge pot the other day". To say it wont cost any table image points whatsoever cant be right. I dont think its much but its gotta be more than zero. If not then I mean...what would?

So what did you put him on on the turn? Did you think you were behind or ahead? If you're thinking you're ahead, river doesn't change much..why fold? If you were thinking you were behind..why 3bet turn? And wouldnt he play KQ, AQ, Qx of spades, JJ, 1010, same way HU?

I'm not going to name names but there are a few players I know who do this kind of **** (stupid folds) and I swear I see people taking shots at them way more than others. (may be confirmation bias or just me paying more attention).

Like you said, a lot of players don't bluff enough in spots like this. I don't want to encourage them and in turn make me feel obligated to pay off every single ****ing raise in the future cause in my head they saw me lay a big hand down...and did they notice? It just makes your world a lot harder. Maybe I'm full of **** and none of that matters. But for me and my live poker game I feel like it does.

Think about the last time you were at a casino and pick out 2 opponents in your head. One that is a sticky mother who doesn't fold and the other is a guy who can make laydowns. Wouldn't you much prefer playing against a guy who might lay a hand down like that? And isn't strategizing vs them easier? Don't you wanna take shots at the guy who folds? I know I do. I might not have a proper gto bluff river raise range vs a few players because I think they over-adjust and fold a made hand exactly never vs me.

River decisions come up all the time. And it's going to give your opponents confidence to throw that 'hopeless' bluff out there juuuuuuust in case you're in one of those folding moves.

I feel like a criminal for how many times I've gotten away with bluffs in spots like this despite having a loose semi bluffy image. People just believe you when you bang em after they put in a zillion bets and look like they have a made hand they're 'never folding'. So you bluff em.

This is just my perspective... and I agree with like...you're right this exact spot doesn't come up a lot but similar ugly spots do come up quite frequently.

Or maybe it's all just in my head.

Good questions. Ill knock them off one at a time

1) this villain tends to open very wide in late position and 4 handed. Like not Q2o/Q5o wide, but hands like Q8o and Q2s are all hands I'd expect he could have. He'd definitely go for a turn raise w/ QT+ and possibly with every queen in his range. It's close if his value raising range is Q9+, but I think he will go wider. Plus sometimes he's bluffing with spades, so I can force him to put bets on now (and maybe on the river if he rivers a pair and makes a crying call). Obviously his hand density gets balanced out a bit because he can have the two pairs and straights (85s, 74s, etc), but I think he's playing enough hands that KK still stands to be a favorite against his initial raising range.

2) river doesn't change much, but the action kills my relative hand strength versus his range. All those weaker value hands i gave him on the initial raise? Those are gone. This villain is smart enough (or should be smart enough) to know that KK or AQ are terrible value raises here, so after this, I only beat a bluff. To be honest, i'd rather call here with AQ than KK, because AQ blocks the category of value hand he'd most likely take this line with (Queens up waiting for a brick river). My hand is kind of a weird one because I don't block value or bluffs.

3) kind of touched on this on the previous point; but I didn't even consider TT/JJ to be in his turn range, and if it is, it's pretty horrible given what I'm raising flop with. Qxss for sure on the turn, but he should be smart enough to know that if he puts a raise in with top pair and gets called on the river, he's beat. And I don't think he'll take a hand with real value (top pair) and use it as a raise bluff on a blank river.

So we're down to really only beating bluffs. Maybe his own value range is condensed enough that we can call at this outstanding price, but even if he's bluffing 10%, it's a 0.325 bet mistake to fold. I'm thinking his bluff frequency, given that I don't have a queen in my hand, will be much lower.


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One thing to keep in mind is that when playing live, exploitative poker, different players warrant different lines.

I've opponents that I would b3b turn and b/c like the 5s against. I have opponents I'd b/c turn and try to fold river against. It's dangerous to assume someone who is at the very least competent will make the same play against you as they would someone else. Like PaulValente would get paid here against me with this hand every time


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Just a thought, but is it possible you folded to save face? You put in all that action and get raised on river, maybe you didn't want villain and table to think you had no clue where you were thru-out hand? By folding ur saying I know! where I am, he can't out play me! As opposed to sheepishly turnin over KK and feeling owned by a made hand on flop?

Nah. Wide-ish range spots, sometimes you run into the bottom of it when you have a middling 3 bet hand like this and look like a genius. Other times you run into the nuts or near nuts and look like an idiot.

Finding out where you're at is always an additional benefit to aggression (as forcing your opponent into spots where there's 3 decision tree branches over 2 will narrow their ranges more by just the nature that they'll carry less hands over per branch), but it shouldn't ever be the primary reason to do anything.

In general, it's as simple as this: the first time he raises, he's up against my flop check raise range. The second time he raises, he's up against my flop check raise, turn bet-3 bet range.

So no, I definitely haven't found out where I'm at, even on the river, as he could be bluffing. But villain has told a credible story and said "I like my hand so much, that I'm willing to raise you twice after the turn". How he responds when we 3 bet him w/ a near uncapped range (we probably don't have the nuts often, but 53s/QQ are in there) is a large piece of information that we didn't have when we three bet ourselves.

What would you have done if he had 4 bet the turn?

Check call down no brainer

I don't think I've ever been 4 bet bluffed but I've definitely been bluffed raised on river.

I've been 4 bet bluffed once. Fortunately I had bottom set and, according to an observer, "looked like I wanted to cry" as I called River.

I didn't say it was going to feel good I just don't play hands like this and then dump em, like ever.