Some math, pot is 13 smalls before the flop, 14 after being lead into. 5 small bets in a 14 small bet pot. I think the tell is about 85%-95% accurate. It's hard to know. It is limit so tells are not THAT accurate.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 AA,KK
8910 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
KcJd | 8.6700% | 8.6532% | 0.0337% | 771 | 3 | |
AA,KK | 91.3300% | 91.3131% | 0.0337% | 8136 | 3 | |
Some more maths coming. At 90% here is my equity.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 (AA,KK)@90,(AA-TT,AxKx,AxQx,AxKy,AxQy)@10
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
KcJd | 28.6989% | 28.6687% | 0.0605% | 172012 | 363 | |
(AA,KK)@90,(AA-TT,Ax... | 71.3011% | 71.2708% | 0.0605% | 427625 | 363 | |
5 to win 19 bets, that's 0.263157895, or 26.3% slightly less than my equity. Very borderline. At 85% it is a clear call.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Jh4h4d
PLAYER_1 KcJd
PLAYER_2 (AA,KK)@85,(AA-TT,AxKx,AxQx,AxKy,AxQy)@15
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
KcJd | 35.0464% | 35.0110% | 0.0708% | 210066 | 425 | |
(AA,KK)@85,(AA-TT,Ax... | 64.9536% | 64.9182% | 0.0708% | 389509 | 425 | |
Last edited by leavesofliberty; 05-19-2017 at 11:37 AM.