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Old 05-10-2017, 06:55 PM   #1
SetofJacks
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Help with semi-bluff calculations

I was discussing this hand with a friend today, and it turns out I may have been wrong to play this hand the way I did.
So I attempted to construct a range chart, along with all possible outcomes given what the river could be compared to each part of his range.

Live 40/80 LHE
Hero opens J9 MP (too loose probably, but this was a tight table at the time and it should be relatively easy to pick up the blinds)

Folds to tight BB who 3!, hero calls
My range for him at this point is something like: 88+, AQ+ (with 88, 99, and AQ being a bit less probable). Possibly KQs but seems unlikely.

Flop: K T 7
Villain bets, Hero calls

Turn: A
Villain bets, Hero raises

Specifically targeting 88, 99, JJ, QQ, or the unlikely KQs
88 & 99 should be further discounted at this point, because even if he would have 3! preflop, I feel like he would likely c/f these on the turn.
QQ & JJ I think are equally likely as they were at the start.

If he's taken this line so far with 88 or 99, I'd expect him to fold here.
If he has QQ or JJ, I expect him to call and then c/f river if he doesn't catch a J or Q with either hand.
If he has AA, KK, or TT I'd expect him to 3-bet.
If he has AK or AQ I'd expect him to call down.

I plan to check the river if a J comes (because I would expect him to donk QQ in that scenario and c/c JJ).
I will bet the river if he only calls turn and any card besides a J comes.

The expected value of this play should be able to be determined by a straight-up EV calculation based on possible outcomes. The problem is that I have a giant spreadsheet full of info but can't quit figure out how to finish it.


I would guess that certain people here (avoidThe9to5) have the tools to be able to quickly figure this out, so I'm asking for help. Any non-mathematical comments are also welcome, but I'm really really interested in the math on this one.


FWIW, my suspicion is that, barring tells, this was a -EV play.
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Old 05-10-2017, 07:43 PM   #2
avoidthe9to5
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

just off the top of my head

villain has
88,99,JJ,QQ = 24 combos. but we block J9 so 18 combos instead. < matters Also he probably checks some of these hands at a decent clip.. so if we dilute these by 50%, he's going to have 9 combos of underpairs.
TT,KK,AA = 9 combos.
AKo = 7 + AKs(2) = 9 combos of AK
AQ = 12 combos if he 3bets AQo
KQs = 3 combos (50% chance so 1.5 combos)

We should not raise the turn just because of this range makeup imo.
Also, OOP should only be betting this turn <50% of the time, checking hands like KQ,QQ,JJ,99.

Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.

Opponent is likely to 3bet upwards of 41% of the time. (e.g. we should not be raising AT or KT ever here on the turn). If he's playing poorly he might fold a hand like 88-99 ott < 20% of the time at best.

I don't hate mixing in a turn raise with J9ss here but it's gotta be less than 10% of the time imo. Otherwise we're waaay overbluffing this spot.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:55 AM   #3
phunkphish
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.
On river I agree, though respect should be made to blockers. Can you explain why you think this is true for turn? Blockers and equity seem more important when raise-bluffing on earlier streets.
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:17 AM   #4
Bob148
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Due to the supposed strength of the big blind's range on the turn, I think low equity bluffs will be unprofitable. I don't bluff in this spot without a combo draw, and even those are at frequency <100%.
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Old 05-11-2017, 09:22 AM   #5
ChuckFinley
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
just off the top of my head

villain has
88,99,JJ,QQ = 24 combos. but we block J9 so 18 combos instead. < matters Also he probably checks some of these hands at a decent clip.. so if we dilute these by 50%, he's going to have 9 combos of underpairs.
TT,KK,AA = 9 combos.
AKo = 7 + AKs(2) = 9 combos of AK
AQ = 12 combos if he 3bets AQo
KQs = 3 combos (50% chance so 1.5 combos)

We should not raise the turn just because of this range makeup imo.
Also, OOP should only be betting this turn <50% of the time, checking hands like KQ,QQ,JJ,99.

Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.

Opponent is likely to 3bet upwards of 41% of the time. (e.g. we should not be raising AT or KT ever here on the turn). If he's playing poorly he might fold a hand like 88-99 ott < 20% of the time at best.

I don't hate mixing in a turn raise with J9ss here but it's gotta be less than 10% of the time imo. Otherwise we're waaay overbluffing this spot.
Ya granted some Tagfish abide by the "me have initiative, me must bet" mentality but QQ/JJ especially are such clear checks.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:03 AM   #6
avoidthe9to5
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish View Post
On river I agree, though respect should be made to blockers. Can you explain why you think this is true for turn? Blockers and equity seem more important when raise-bluffing on earlier streets.
blockers matter most on all streets imo.

equity only has the effect of bluff stacking, causing us to have to bluff more since a % of these bluffs convert to value hands. People who are gung ho for raise/barreling off equity bluffs tend to massively overbluff on the river.
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Old 05-11-2017, 03:51 PM   #7
Montrealcorp
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post

Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.
So you would not raise as a bluff a flush draw since we at least call with it 100% of the time, right ?

What you are saying is great for the river but i think there is more into it on previous street.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:05 PM   #8
SetofJacks
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.
So because a pair of 7's is nearly the best hand I would fold here (though I would fold 88,99,T9,T8 also), I should semi-bluff because I also have diamonds and sometimes two pair/trips to fall back on?

As opposed to the J9 which by the river is toward the bottom of my folding range, so given only 8 outs and only J high if I miss, I should only call the turn?

I'm not exactly sure I follow (given that a pair of 7's is roughly equal in value to J high in this spot).

I do see a difference in terms of outs, blockers, and potential to chop.
With 6d7d, we have 9 outs to a flush and 5 outs to two pair or trips, and no river card can come that results in a chop.

With Js9s, we have at most 8 outs, and a Q may result in a chop. Though if our semi-bluff would end up failing, we probably have a full 8 outs unless villain shows up with AQ.


Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
Opponent is likely to 3bet upwards of 41% of the time. (e.g. we should not be raising AT or KT ever here on the turn). If he's playing poorly he might fold a hand like 88-99 ott < 20% of the time at best.
I would call down with a hand like AT or KT, but why in the world would he be keen to show down 88-99 ever?
Against a normal player who hasn't been confirmed nutso, my standard would be to c/f the turn with 88 and 99 since literally any two broadway cards, 77, TX all beat us.
The only hands 88 and 99 can beat are 89, J9, and two diamonds that don't contain a T, K, or A, and aren't QJ.
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:25 PM   #9
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
blockers matter most on all streets imo.

equity only has the effect of bluff stacking, causing us to have to bluff more since a % of these bluffs convert to value hands. People who are gung ho for raise/barreling off equity bluffs tend to massively overbluff on the river.
Agree blockers are important. Not blocking their bluff combos / blocking their value combos increases our equity pie. But having more draw-equity also increases our equity pie. In both cases, we can bluff more.

That doesn't explain your statement that bluffs should come from top of folding range on early streets.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:15 PM   #10
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
So you would not raise as a bluff a flush draw since we at least call with it 100% of the time, right ?

What you are saying is great for the river but i think there is more into it on previous street.
due to bluff stacking yes. raising all flush draws is poor though, as you want some in your calling range and some in your flatting range.

sooo raise the ones that would naturally fold w\out the flush draw... and call the others =P

Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish View Post
Agree blockers are important. Not blocking their bluff combos / blocking their value combos increases our equity pie. But having more draw-equity also increases our equity pie. In both cases, we can bluff more.

That doesn't explain your statement that bluffs should come from top of folding range on early streets.
I bluff stack over the natural raise bluffs. In other words, I do both. Adding some bluffs are to their equity (how they will convert into value somtimes) and due to needing to have hands that will give up future streets.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:52 PM   #11
Montrealcorp
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Re: Help with semi-bluff calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
due to bluff stacking yes. raising all flush draws is poor though, as you want some in your calling range and some in your flatting range.

sooo raise the ones that would naturally fold w\out the flush draw... and call the others =P
ok i agree but than how can you say raising 76s diamond is better instead of J9 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
Raise bluffs come from the top of your folding range, not your nut low hands even when they have equity. It's actually better to raise bluff w\ a hand like 76dd than it is J9ss here.

that is what i was confuse about.
i mean if it was possible we had J8s in our range i would fold J8s, raise J9s and call 76s (even if no diamond) imo..
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