I was discussing this hand with a friend today, and it turns out I may have been wrong to play this hand the way I did.
So I attempted to construct a range chart, along with all possible outcomes given what the river could be compared to each part of his range.
Live 40/80 LHE
Hero opens J
9
MP (too loose probably, but this was a tight table at the time and it should be relatively easy to pick up the blinds)
Folds to tight BB who 3!, hero calls
My range for him at this point is something like: 88+, AQ+ (with 88, 99, and AQ being a bit less probable). Possibly KQs but seems unlikely.
Flop: K
T
7
Villain bets, Hero calls
Turn: A
Villain bets, Hero raises
Specifically targeting 88, 99, JJ, QQ, or the unlikely KQs
88 & 99 should be further discounted at this point, because even if he would have 3! preflop, I feel like he would likely c/f these on the turn.
QQ & JJ I think are equally likely as they were at the start.
If he's taken this line so far with 88 or 99, I'd expect him to fold here.
If he has QQ or JJ, I expect him to call and then c/f river if he doesn't catch a J or Q with either hand.
If he has AA, KK, or TT I'd expect him to 3-bet.
If he has AK or AQ I'd expect him to call down.
I plan to check the river if a J comes (because I would expect him to donk QQ in that scenario and c/c JJ).
I will bet the river if he only calls turn and any card besides a J comes.
The expected value of this play should be able to be determined by a straight-up EV calculation based on possible outcomes. The problem is that I have a giant spreadsheet full of info but can't quit figure out how to finish it.
I would guess that certain people here (avoidThe9to5) have the tools to be able to quickly figure this out, so I'm asking for help. Any non-mathematical comments are also welcome, but I'm really really interested in the math on this one.
FWIW, my suspicion is that, barring tells, this was a -EV play.