Ok -- I figured this was a decent hand to post because I think I have (for better or for worse) many action ranges on the turn (xf, xc, xr bluff, xr value, bf, b3, bc) when I xr flop and this turn comes. I didn't really realize this at game speed but after looking back here are the ranges I was thinking go in each bucket.

I'm assuming I'm CO here with my ranges given the out of turn folds.

When I open and xr I this flop I think I have:

K2s - KQs (I open Kxs here co)
K9o - KQo (I just xc AK flop to xr turn)
55, TT-QQ (I just xc KK and AA to xr turn)
Flush draws (except Ahi fd and QJhh, QThh -- which I xc flop)

(On flop I'm xc my fives, my ace highs with bdfd, A2s, my ace hi fds, my 33,44,66-99, and some stronger stuff like AA, AK, KK, and some other random stuff I xf turn with)

On this turn (assuming I've xr flop), since it favors villain's range so much over mine, don't I wanna check a lot of stuff (but everything felt too much, no?)? So my general strat feels like:


GIVEN FLOP XR, ON TURN:

Xc - TT-QQ, K3s, K4s, K6s - K9s, K9o

Bf - KTo

Bc - KJ, KQ, 55, most heart draws (maybe toss 1-2 in the xr or b3??). I'd also xr 55 riv

Xr - K2s, K5s, JThh

B3 - [null]


So I'm not xf anything directly on the turn when I xr flop... but when I get to river and have xr xc I'd have {TT, JJ, QQ, 27 Kx combos}

Of the 45 combos I have, JJ is 7-12 so basically 15th to 25th percentile (though I'd argue havingone of the 3 JhJx combos puts me at the bottom half of this bucket (so say 15 - 20th). So if I fold TT and JhJx I'm folding 1/5 of the time. I'm getting 6.75-1 so I guess this is overfolding but does he have a huge bluffing range here?

TBH I more wanted to share my thought process with you guys regarding building these ranges in these spots. Maybe these ranges aren't quite right (would love your feedback) and maybe my fold was too heavy (maybe I should just check/fold TT?).

Thanks!

-magicmcq

magic-> your analysis is good, but it makes a big mistake that is common with thinking through hands like this: you're missing what your opponent's range is on the river if he's not playing perfectly.

how high up your folding range goes depends not only on pot size, but also what your opponent's range is. ofc, if you think he's playing gto, then you're right to only look at your own range, but almost nobody does that correctly. and one of the main symptoms of that is not bluffing the river enough. as a result, people tend to be value heavy on the river when betting in position b/c they think "it's limit, nobody's folding, gotta check weak hands and some bluffs." In reality, that decision should be based on pot size vs. your range that would lead you to incorrectly fold vs. correctly call vs. incorrectly call.

here, folding your 15th-25th percentile hand when facing a ~13% equilibrium folding frequency assumes your opponent is bluffing correctly (so he needs to be bluffing about, or technically under, 15% in equilibrium to make you indifferent between calling and folding after accounting for the possibility of being k/r'd). i've found that very very few people bluff this much, so constructing a gto strategy to counter an exploitative tendency doesn't seem right imo.

as a result, you should think through how he thinks about his range and then determine your strategy. ofc it's GREAT that you did the analysis b/c it gives you a baseline to know where in your range you need to be given various tendencies he may have, but when the clay hits the felt, you should take his propensities and his range into account.

_______

now, separately, about your analysis, i think you're way overdoing the turn k/c bucket and way underdoing the flop k/r bucket. you have to have more bets in there even though the ace is a scary card. if you're willing to fold out KTo to a raise, what's the problem with doing likewise with your weaker kings as well? and here, your buckets have to be tied to your opponent's range and the pot size. you can't just dump virtually everything in the k/c bucket, have 1 bet/f and no b/3. this also shows why having a completely decapitated flop k/r range is bad. you have to k/r some sets, AK, and aces so you can then b/3 the turn with them as well as 1-2 flush draws.

when you're like me and you're not donking the flop (doesn't seem like you are), you should have a large and balanced flop k/r range. k/r, k/c, k/f are your only options. you're k/f'ing a lot (your q/j/t highs, some offsuit weaker aces, etc.) and you're calling lots too, so a lot of your hands have to go into the k/r bucket. and those that you put there have to be there in a balanced fashion. pick some randomizing factor that is easy for you to implement like "k/r aces that have a diamond on the flop" since that would be 1/2 of your aces. with unsuited cards, to split a range in half, just pick two suits and k/r those. but you can't NEVER k/r AK+ and have a strategy that works.

I think the hand is played fine but fwiw phunks post agrees with a lot of GTO sims I've looked at for spots like this. A hand like JJ blocks Broadway combos and doesn't suffer as much from giving free cards on the turn. We need to have some hands that can simply call down on almost all runouts.

Yeah I get it. Took too abrasive of a tone, phunk's position makes sense.


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4 bet preflop. He could think you're stealing the blinds since people acted out of turn. Then, if he raises the flop, you have an easy turn fold.

For what its woth, I 4 bet jacks from those positions no matter what