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Old 08-06-2008, 01:53 PM   #1
jesse8888
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Fire a third barrel?

Good live 20 game. Villain is "Ted", an older Asian gentleman who is not a maniac. He is reasonably tight (probably not quite enough) and reasonable aggressive (probably not quite enough).

Hero opens A T 4 off the button. Ted calls in the small blind, bb folds.

8 3 2

I bet he calls.

2

I bet he calls.

7

He checks, I....

His call from the small blind indicates he has some sort of hand. I don't know what he'd 3-bet preflop, but I imagine AK would be in there. It's pretty hard to believe he has an overpair, although I guess scared 9s or Ts could make sense. I have to believe Jacks or better would have put in more action by now. Does he have AT, AJ and AQ enough here for me to fire another barrel, or is this a standard check? Does anyone check the turn?
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:09 PM   #2
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

With two flush draws out, I think the turn is a must-bet. I'd check behind.
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:12 PM   #3
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Scared 9s or Ts don't make sense. If he takes the slower line preflop he will almost certainly be c/r'ing the flop because that is the second part of that line.
I would bet and expect to lose only to A2/A3. I think he puts in more action with an 8 and....I changed my mind while typing that. He probably isn't calling you with anything you beat except A6/A9 and since you are very WTF about what he has here it might be good to check to find out what he has (will he show/tell you?). I don't think there is value in a bet and I think your line is fine up til this point.
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:15 PM   #4
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

NH so far.
Check behind. AT, AJ may fold to a bet but that's not enough reason to fire again.
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:16 PM   #5
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by korrupt106 View Post
(will he show/tell you?).
I think at Bay101 if there's no betting on the river, the first to act must show first. He could insta-muck of course, but I think Jesse can hold onto his cards for five minutes if the SB won't show.
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Old 08-06-2008, 02:37 PM   #6
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

If I check he has to show first (if he wants to win the pot). Bison is right; I'll hold my cards for as long as it takes for him to show or muck. If I bet and he folds I won't have any idea what he has as he's not the type to say anything.

Beak, do you think he'll call with AQ but not AJ? Can you explain why? I don't think many live players make this distinction.
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Old 08-06-2008, 04:18 PM   #7
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

I am just not sure enough players fold AQ or AJ here to make a bet worth it. If Ted is familiar with your play he may suspect that you would fire with less than AJ on all 3 streets and call the river. Its my guess he won't fold anything you beat and won't call with many/any lesser hands. I would just check behind.
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Old 08-06-2008, 04:46 PM   #8
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

He's not folding a pair and he's not calling A9.
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Old 08-06-2008, 05:48 PM   #9
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Wouldn't make much sense to fire IMO.
Folding out pairs isn't incredibly likely in a pot this size, certainly no value. As played I think your hand has some showdown value vs. K-face, QJ, QT, missed FD, and I think turning your hand into a bluff here would be a mistake.
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Old 08-06-2008, 05:58 PM   #10
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Don't beat yourself up over the results.
He's never folding a pair and he's calling with A-hi hands that beat/tie you enough that betting this river is lighting money on fire. Your hand is good enough to beat any real draws (A4/A5/45/clubs), so you may as well show it down and hope.

-d
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Old 08-06-2008, 06:30 PM   #11
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

If you want to bluff I'd rather save it for when you have no showdown value, if you're bluffing here and with no showdown value you're bluffing too much. You can however value bet AK and probably AQ(?).
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Old 08-06-2008, 06:52 PM   #12
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Betting won't accomplish much more than getting a worse hand to fold. I think if he has any piece he's calling to snap off your unpaired overs, otherwise its likely he's been peeling with some broadwayish k-high or q-high hands that should fold to a river bet.
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Old 08-07-2008, 01:38 AM   #13
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NinaWilliams View Post
He's not folding a pair and he's not calling A9.
OK so this much I kinda had figured out already

He had ATo and I really don't think he was calling the river. Based on the board and the way the action played out, I realized that his hand looked like exactly what it was...AT-AQ hoping to catch a pair.
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Old 08-07-2008, 08:35 AM   #14
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Jesse,

I think this hand is a little opponent dependent and based on his perception of your image... some players snap call this river bet with AT... some of the more weak-tight players instafold AQ/AK (bc you "have to" have it if you're still betting the river). That said, I think depending on the opponent, sometimes it's correct to MAKE them call you down if you're pretty sure of their hand range and weak-tightish tendencies (there are some players that fit this description in my 20 game) ... against players who like to get to showdown with just about anything showdownable, the river bet has basically no value and is just lighting money on fire... just pretty opponent dependent IMO.
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Old 08-07-2008, 12:00 PM   #15
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888 View Post
If I check he has to show first (if he wants to win the pot). Bison is right; I'll hold my cards for as long as it takes for him to show or muck. If I bet and he folds I won't have any idea what he has as he's not the type to say anything.

Beak, do you think he'll call with AQ but not AJ? Can you explain why? I don't think many live players make this distinction.
Sorry.
My point was he would have raised with AQ or AK Preflop, but maybe not AT/AJ. Seemed in line with your description.
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Old 08-07-2008, 01:01 PM   #16
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeakWetter View Post
Sorry.
My point was he would have raised with AQ or AK Preflop, but maybe not AT/AJ. Seemed in line with your description.
Was not sure about AQ preflop. Suited I probably get 3-balled, but off I don't know.
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Old 08-07-2008, 01:36 PM   #17
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888 View Post
Was not sure about AQ preflop. Suited I probably get 3-balled, but off I don't know.
Fair enough. Even with adding in AQo, I don't think that gives us enough to bet. So check behind is good as stated by many.
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Old 08-08-2008, 12:52 PM   #18
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Re: Fire a third barrel?

If I flatcall you with AQ preflop, it is with the intention of c/r'ing you on dry boards such as this.
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