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Old 04-19-2017, 05:31 PM   #1
Smarty 2.0
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Question Dumb Preflop Question

30/60 game with a full kill

9-handed

Kill is posted in LP

UTG (decent player) raises, UTG+1 (fish) cold calls, UTG+2 (expert) 3-bets!,
we look down at AQo and...?
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Old 04-19-2017, 05:39 PM   #2
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

My preference is to fold. I play with enough bad players that I'd rather not play a likely dominated hand against an expert and a decent with a tight range not to mention you're unlikely to win unimproved 4 ways with a fish coming along. I fold and find a better spot.

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Old 04-19-2017, 06:13 PM   #3
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I also hate being +2 on a fish with am expert to my right. They adjust and make it very hard for you to isolate or realize your equity against the person you most want to play with. Tough spot for sure.

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Old 04-19-2017, 10:00 PM   #4
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0 View Post
30/60 game with a full kill

9-handed

Kill is posted in LP

UTG (decent player) raises, UTG+1 (fish) cold calls, UTG+2 (expert) 3-bets!,
we look down at AQo and...?
Is killer yet to act?

I'm okay folding this as a default, but I'm speed capping AQs here.
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Old 04-20-2017, 12:45 PM   #5
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

What do you think UTG's and UTG+2's ranges are here?
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:09 PM   #6
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Dumb Preflop Question

Depends totally on how expert and you have appeared to others--and especially to one another. Your image is just as important as your reads on the others. Have you and expert been duking it out? Avoiding one another? Gambling together? Do fish have any respect for you? Do they think you're a magical luckbox whom they can't ever, ever win a hand against?

I'm capping and folding 50%/50% here, and when I cap, I have a plan for the entire hand.

If she's really an expert, she will iso-raise here in the kill with a range that is < A-Q, depending on the species of fish.

And agree that if A-Qs just jam and hope for money!

Last edited by COCOCHANEL; 04-20-2017 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 04-20-2017, 03:43 PM   #7
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I'd fold, but last time I did I would have been up against JTs
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:22 PM   #8
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Meh, I cap it. **** it. You're going to end up in some tough spots, but with the fish in and some extra dead money in there it can't be bad.

If you're just taking a shot in this game though or not fully rolled for it, this would be a good spot to forego a tiny bit of EV in order to avoid a **** ton of variance. Something I'm generally opposed to.
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:48 PM   #9
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I would be suprised if this is a marginal EV spot (though I agree it is obviously high variance). Either the two raisers (one of them decent and in first position and the other one an expert player three betting a first position raise) have ranges that crush us, which would make it a seriously -EV spot, or they have ranges that AQo does fine against, which would make it a more than marginally +EV spot.

So I'd still like to know what ranges OP puts these players on, based on whatever reads OP has beyond "expert" and "decent".
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:50 PM   #10
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

i fold
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Old 04-20-2017, 07:50 PM   #11
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

JDR: Killer is yet to act. Agree, I would be 4-betting here if it were AQs.

Lawdude: These views (decent, expert) are based on a fairly small sample size.

Hand waving guess as ranges is:
UTG: ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 77+
UTG+2: A9s+, ATo+, QJs+, KQo+, 77+

Coco: Expert and I hadn't been in too many pots, expert has gotten the better of me in HU pots thus far. Fish has some respect for me.

PaulV: Not taking a shot here, stakes are irrelevant.
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Old 04-20-2017, 08:16 PM   #12
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Crowd has it right here. Laying it down is correct play
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Old 04-21-2017, 01:13 AM   #13
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I know it is confirmation bias but I had this literal exact spot tonight. Very loose and aggressive opens, one of the best players in the whole 20 pool 3 bets and I look at AQo next up on the button. I thought of this post as I folded. Saved tons of money on a Q93 rainbow flop, 6 turn, Q river. Expert had 99 and BB who took two more to the face had the last queen. When I say I lay down AQo it's really only to the experts.
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Old 04-21-2017, 11:10 AM   #14
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0 View Post

Hand waving guess as ranges is:
UTG: ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 77+
UTG+2: A9s+, ATo+, QJs+, KQo+, 77+


So we can infer you think it's right to 3 bet a significantly wider range than an utg opener because of the presence of a coldcalling bad player? I think this is very wrong.

If your ranges are correct it's an extremely easy cap. I don't see an expert doing that but it might be a semantical argument.
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Old 04-21-2017, 11:28 AM   #15
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

So seeing that you were up against 99 and a weaker Q makes you happy you folded?
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Old 04-21-2017, 11:28 AM   #16
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
So we can infer you think it's right to 3 bet a significantly wider range than an utg opener because of the presence of a coldcalling bad player? I think this is very wrong.

If your ranges are correct it's an extremely easy cap. I don't see an expert doing that but it might be a semantical argument.
Agreed. I three bet wide after a raise and cold call (form of implicit collusion versus the cold caller), but QJs and ATo are never three bets for me against a reasonable UTG range.
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Old 04-21-2017, 12:23 PM   #17
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyOnTilt View Post
I know it is confirmation bias but I had this literal exact spot tonight. Very loose and aggressive opens, one of the best players in the whole 20 pool 3 bets and I look at AQo next up on the button. I thought of this post as I folded. Saved tons of money on a Q93 rainbow flop, 6 turn, Q river. Expert had 99 and BB who took two more to the face had the last queen. When I say I lay down AQo it's really only to the experts.


That makes no sense, you should fold AQ when an uncreative nit is 3 betting. When an expert 3 bet isolates a "very loose and aggressive" from late position you should be fist pump capping this hand and worse.
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Old 04-21-2017, 01:47 PM   #18
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulValente View Post
So seeing that you were up against 99 and a weaker Q makes you happy you folded?
No I was happy with the fold either way. There were 3 really bad players in a 5 handed game and I didn't think twice about not three betting probably the 3rd best player I play with on a regular basis. Just commented because it was similar.

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Old 04-21-2017, 01:49 PM   #19
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I just commented because to me that's confirmation bias in favor of capping

Last edited by PaulValente; 04-21-2017 at 01:50 PM. Reason: Funny how bias works :p
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Old 04-21-2017, 02:11 PM   #20
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulValente View Post
I just commented because to me that's confirmation bias in favor of capping
Where I play 4 isn't a cap but I'd still do it against all but like 5 guys in my player pool, he just happened to be one of them. I think avoiding spots with good players when the rest of table is waiting to pass you chips has some merit but I could be wrong. Worked out for me in this spot which is why I prefaced my comment.

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Old 04-21-2017, 02:45 PM   #21
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
That makes no sense, you should fold AQ when an uncreative nit is 3 betting. When an expert 3 bet isolates a "very loose and aggressive" from late position you should be fist pump capping this hand and worse.
this
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Old 04-21-2017, 03:00 PM   #22
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

I'm with DD and avoid. If the ranges posted by OP are the actual ranges, this is a no-brainer cap. On the other hand, I am skeptical about the ranges-- the one player is decent and UTG, and the expert shouldn't be 3-betting that lightly in this spot and may even have a pretty tight range.
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Old 04-21-2017, 03:25 PM   #23
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by avoidthe9to5 View Post
this
I never said the 3 better was an uncreative nit. In fact the exact opposite is true. He's a very good winning lag. I'm the uncreative nit which is why I folded AQo there.
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Old 04-21-2017, 04:12 PM   #24
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyOnTilt View Post
I never said the 3 better was an uncreative nit. In fact the exact opposite is true. He's a very good winning lag. I'm the uncreative nit which is why I folded AQo there.


You probably shouldn't play 5 handed then
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Old 04-21-2017, 04:22 PM   #25
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Re: Dumb Preflop Question

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Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
You probably shouldn't play 5 handed then
It was a good spot. I may tend to be on the tight and ABC side but I have enough experience to adjust. I was significantly better than the other 3 players and chose to avoid 1 guy at the table. I am self aware enough to know where I'm at in the game flow.

I still think that even if folding AQo to a good players 3 bet is a mistake, it's a small one. I'd love to be compelled in another direction as I am really trying hard to be less of a see through tagfish.

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