Commerce 40*

A bad player limps and I raise QJdd HJ. CO an button CC, BB calls 5 ways.*

J84cc

Only BB calls. She is 50s, seemed aggro and not terrible.

2r

She calls

8r

She checks....

Having seen me bet/call the last hand, 5 minutes later....

I open AQo in EP. A seemingly enfeabeled old man calls. He is new and does no appear solid. 50s Chinese man calls BB.*

KQ8cch

They both all.*

4h

They both call.*

8s

Is it safe to bet/fold, assuming I bet called the first hand?

yep

And on a scale of 6-10, how bad is bet/call on the first hand.?

7.5. It's not terrible, but I doubt it's profitable against this player type. She basically has to be turning t9 into a river cr bluff. The player pool capable of making this move against a decent player is polarized between experts and maniacs.

Yeah I'm not even sure I have a bet on the river in hand 1. Like she usually airballed a draw or just made trips...jacks are rare and even if she has one it might beat mine....

i really think you have to bet hand 1. you beat 4s, a bunch of pocket pairs, the occasional showdowning Ahi, most jacks, maybe a flush draw that paired the 2. you lose to a superior jack on rare occasion, a monster non-8 holding very very rarely, and 8s which are obviously combinatorially reduced by virtue of there being two on the board. you can play around with stove ranges and deduct a couple %s for the rare occasion you get bluffed (assuming you decide to b/f) and i think it will show its a pretty clear bet even in the pessimistic cases where you don't discount KJ and leave out any Ace highs...





EDIT: decided to do the stove.

Board: Jd 8d 8h 4c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.116% 57.46% 01.66% 936 27.00 { QJo }
Hand 1: 40.884% 39.23% 01.66% 639 27.00 { TT-99, 77-55, 33-22, AKs, A8s, A4s, KJs, K8s, QJs, Q8s, J5s+, T8s, 98s, 85s+, 54s, AKo, A8o, A4o, KJo, K8o, QJo, Q8o, J7o+, T8o, 98o, 86o+, 54o }

i was fairly liberal with the eights, stingy with the 4s, only have one A-high hand, and even if you are getting bluffed like 5% of the time (i think its pretty rare generally) its still a value bet.

Thanks Ty. The thing here is that while I'm ahead on your stove I have 2 concerns:

1. 22,33,55,66,77 are pretty unrealistic.
2. If I bet/call I'm losing 2 bets to basically the enire 40% that beats me....even if only half that c/r me I break even.

Another question....if you bet/folded hand 1, would you check hand 2?

22 beats you i just threw it in as a random monster that hurts my case. and how are the rest unrealistic? this is how i would except those hands to be played by the average player. if fact its how i'd play those hands a fair bit. assuming i was closing the action on the flop (edit: i see there is one player left to act). but yea i would expect the average live player to peel there the vast majority of the time in a big pot where there is a really solid chance they are actually in the lead and maximally the pot will be 3 handed.

i agree its not entirely realistic, i think its overly pessimistic. and yea i would suggest a bet/fold here so calling two bets doesn't come into the equation, but the frequency you get bluffed does..

hand two really is a "it depends" kind of hand. you are betting a parlay on the river but both people shouldn't have a lot of kings in their range but there is likely a big difference between what they should have and what they actually have. i check it usually in practice but i'd bet it occasionally if i knew my opponents would have a high propensity to donk an 8 (8s should probably be donked here multiway imo).

I really just don't see 33 or 55 getting to the river and paying off anywhere near 100% of the time. I think we might be arguing like 85% v 50% so not huge but still a difference.

So I guess the answer is bet/fold....

For hand 1, I think b/c and check behind are close, with bet/fold a distant third. I'd expect an aggro and not terrible player to turn 9T or a club draw into a bluff a reasonable amount of the time. Also, her play so far really doesn't look like an 8 - I'd expect an 8 to put in a raise somewhere before the river.

I don't get it.