Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Mid-High Stakes Limit Discussions of mid-high stakes limit Texas Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-10-2017, 05:41 PM   #1
Jon_locke
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,120
A bad card after a good check back

So here's a interesting spot where i found myself s bit lost on turn given the infrequency at which plauerw check back here (even though it's often corrrecr) and the parlay with this exact turn card hitting.

2-4 Holdem, action player opens utg 6-7 handed and very good player 3 bets cutoff. I call AJ bb (pretty sure he assumes I don't cap).

Flop is AQTr and it checks through.

At this point I think cutoff range is weighted fairly heavily towards KQ/JQ and possibly few less KTs type hands and stuff like 66-99 that's just not gonna waste a bet.

Turn is a Q I check... utg bets cutoff looks like he's contemplating raising but calls pretty quickly....
Jon_locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 06:17 PM   #2
SetofJacks
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,063
Re: A bad card after a good check back

I call.
SetofJacks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 06:32 PM   #3
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,909
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Well, it's a classic range and pot odds question, isn't it? (I guess there's a tad of reverse implied odds if you call, and the river goes bet-fold-fur coat call in the big pot, but it's mostly range and pot odds.) It's such a good example of one that it could even be posted in the small stakes forum and get some discussion there.

It's pretty clear you think one of them has a queen and that both of them have a ton of broadway cards in their range. You are getting 11-1 on your call and you think your hand is basically almost never good here (because of the number of queens in the three bettor's range), so let's focus on your draw.

You have 2 outs to an ace, which are usually good, but become 1 out to a chop if UTG has AQ or another ace, which may be in his range. (Does he cap with AQ? QQ?)

You have 4 outs to a king, which are no good if one of your opponents has KQ or KK (can the 3 bettor check KK behind on this board?), and which are only outs to a chop if any of them have a jack in their hand (KJ, QJ, JJ, and even J9 for UTG turned into a bluff all seem possible). And there would seem to be plenty of jacks in their range.

So I'll give 1.75 outs to the full house outs, and 1.5 outs to the straight outs. 3.25 outs getting 11 to 1 with a smidgen of reverse implied odds = I fold it.

Last edited by lawdude; 05-10-2017 at 06:40 PM.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 07:14 PM   #4
bicyclekick
luckbox
 
bicyclekick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: waiting to ski
Posts: 6,748
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Call. Doesn't he have any weak aces? Seems far more likely than a queen does after he doesn't raise the turn. Kk wouldn't surprise me either.
bicyclekick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 08:17 PM   #5
OnTheRail15
Pooh-Bah
 
OnTheRail15's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 3,971
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Easy call.
OnTheRail15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 03:04 AM   #6
Jon_locke
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,120
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Quote:
Originally Posted by bicyclekick View Post
Call. Doesn't he have any weak aces? Seems far more likely than a queen does after he doesn't raise the turn. Kk wouldn't surprise me either.
While weak Ax is possible ( I think way less likely thank KQ though) that certainly makes it far more likely UTG has trips+

UTG opens wide but he's not leading turn without at least Ax here (prob should have included that)
Jon_locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 12:02 PM   #7
Kevin J
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,810
Re: A bad card after a good check back

You still have your whole range (whatever it might be) and AJ should rank higher than either opponent can suspect up to this point. For this reason, I wouldn't try pigeon holing either of their hands into something that must beat AJ yet, so I'd call.
Kevin J is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 02:25 PM   #8
leavesofliberty
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,624
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Did you miss a decimal point somewhere JL?
leavesofliberty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 02:32 PM   #9
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,909
Re: A bad card after a good check back

One thing to remember is that with one ace on the board and one in JL's hand, there's only two aces left in the deck and two opponents....
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 02:35 PM   #10
Smarty 2.0
adept
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 983
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Not getting close to 11 to 1 on the turn
Smarty 2.0 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 03:40 PM   #11
bicyclekick
luckbox
 
bicyclekick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: waiting to ski
Posts: 6,748
Re: A bad card after a good check back

i'm intrigued cause i'm never folding here
bicyclekick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 03:43 PM   #12
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,909
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty 2.0 View Post
Not getting close to 11 to 1 on the turn
You are right. The actual pot odds on the turn are 6 1/2 to 1.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 03:55 PM   #13
Montrealcorp
Pooh-Bah
 
Montrealcorp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 5,475
Re: A bad card after a good check back

We are closing the action right ?
easy call unless we try what, to see through cards ?
Montrealcorp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 04:36 PM   #14
Jon_locke
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,120
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Quote:
Originally Posted by bicyclekick View Post
i'm intrigued cause i'm never folding here
I never do as well, but I actually think it may be a fold. Or at least pretty close. But it's only close if we think UTg never leads turn with like 66 or even KT.

It's obviously a disaster if we're against like A5s and KK here. The main point to discuss is going to be cutoff check back range. And while I think he's going to check back KK/KQ st by far the highest frequency, I can't say for certain how often, if ever he checks back A9s type hands.


I feel like he will benefit far more by cheixng back KQ than A9 here but i could easily be wrong

Last edited by Jon_locke; 05-11-2017 at 04:43 PM.
Jon_locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 05:47 PM   #15
Like
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 178
Re: A bad card after a good check back

I would much much rather bet the flop and check the turn. I dont like the flop check at all and I usually love checking back flops
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 06:16 PM   #16
Jon_locke
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,120
Re: A bad card after a good check back

I think you under estimate how often Checking back the turn isn't an option (you get raised a ton) BB range is very strong pre and I'd imagine both A9 and KQ are close to 2-1 dogs to Bb continuing range
Jon_locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 06:47 PM   #17
asmitty
Pooh-Bah
 
asmitty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: betting if checked to
Posts: 4,162
Re: A bad card after a good check back

I call turn. I probably fold river UI if the action goes UTG bet CO call, or UTG check CO bet, but call if it goes UTG bet CO fold.
asmitty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 09:22 PM   #18
phunkphish
veteran
 
phunkphish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 2,680
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Depends how 'actiony' UTG is (and how wide CO 3b is)

CO delay could mean he was thinking of making a move with KK/JJ/Tx -- get you to fold a better hand, show down vs UTG, fold if 3b.
phunkphish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 10:59 PM   #19
Jon_locke
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 4,120
Re: A bad card after a good check back

His utg opening range is prettg reasonable except maybee on light side with hand alike QTo and similar but it was 6 handed or something. The K4s and J7s and 45s stfff were mostly getting open limped
Jon_locke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 08:58 AM   #20
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: A Dalmatian plantation near you.
Posts: 8,320
Re: A bad card after a good check back

I'd call the turn without really considering other options.

My question to those that want to fold the turn is this: What were you hoping to flop? What kind of action were you hoping for? Seems to me that if the turn is a fold, that we should just fold preflop.
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 10:27 AM   #21
6MaxLHE
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Philly
Posts: 1,632
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
I would much much rather bet the flop and check the turn. I dont like the flop check at all and I usually love checking back flops
Donking this flop is bad, OP is playing 200/400 not 10/20. Turn is a call but KQ gonna get up in that ass if we river broadway.
6MaxLHE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 02:02 PM   #22
lawdude
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,909
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
I'd call the turn without really considering other options.

My question to those that want to fold the turn is this: What were you hoping to flop? What kind of action were you hoping for? Seems to me that if the turn is a fold, that we should just fold preflop.
Jon hasn't given us enough information to evaluate pre-flop. Against tight enough ranges, this could be a fold. But he does characterize UTG as a maniac, and if the 3-bettor sees UTG as a maniac, that would create wide enough ranges that the call is plenty profitable.

The problem, though, is that the betting action has narrowed their ranges. First of all, the three bettor's check-back suggests neither a hand that crushed the flop nor a hand that turned into a bluff. So we end up with a range that has a lot of queens in it. And guess what card came on the turn? Plus Jon implies he picked up a physical tell, which also suggests a queen.

Further, UTG's bet out suggests he likes his hand. (This just looks like a really dumb spot to bluff given the ranges involved.) Now, it's true that this may include some Ax's we beat. But not that many, because he raised UTG. He's not showing up with A2 here. Further, he can have any of the broadway hands that crush this board, such as a hand with a Q in it, or KJ, as well.

Also, as I noted earlier, there are only 2 A's left in the deck. So we basically need both of these guys to have them, or exactly KK.

So both these guys have pretty narrow ranges with a lot of hands that beat us. But that's not because they will always have those hands. It's because the betting action gave us this information. Play the hand again, this time UTG has 99, the 3-bettor has 66, and we take it down on the turn with a bet or call down the 3-bettor's bluff.

One question that has occurred to me is whether UTG has a capping range here. It would be nice to take AA-QQ, and AK and AQs, for instance, out of his range.
lawdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 03:29 PM   #23
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: A Dalmatian plantation near you.
Posts: 8,320
Re: A bad card after a good check back

Let's pretend we have AK here. How do people feel about check folding the turn?
Bob148 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 04:01 PM   #24
samdash
adept
 
samdash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,086
Re: A bad card after a good check back

AK makes KK less likely, but also KQ interestingly.
samdash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 07:00 PM   #25
leavesofliberty
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 5,624
Re: A bad card after a good check back

4bet pre if range is around QJ, because if adjusting to action player, action player must be raising all kinds of cheese. Against many opponents though this can be a fold, especially since the early range was from early. I lean towards 4bet, and am probably never calling here especially if cap is 4-bet because calling three narrows down the possibilities too much as to our holdings. I'd consider 4-betting KQs as well.

Your live read isn't very strong as to what your opponent has, imho. Is he acting to deter your action, or genuinely considering a raise? Also, you checked the turn making it more plausible that he may wish to iso raise w/ JJ v "action player" who may just be donking. Turn I think is a call. And I am probably calling the river as well.
leavesofliberty is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online