Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
I'd call the turn without really considering other options.
My question to those that want to fold the turn is this: What were you hoping to flop? What kind of action were you hoping for? Seems to me that if the turn is a fold, that we should just fold preflop.
Jon hasn't given us enough information to evaluate pre-flop. Against tight enough ranges, this could be a fold. But he does characterize UTG as a maniac, and if the 3-bettor sees UTG as a maniac, that would create wide enough ranges that the call is plenty profitable.
The problem, though, is that the betting action has narrowed their ranges. First of all, the three bettor's check-back suggests neither a hand that crushed the flop nor a hand that turned into a bluff. So we end up with a range that has a lot of queens in it. And guess what card came on the turn? Plus Jon implies he picked up a physical tell, which also suggests a queen.
Further, UTG's bet out suggests he likes his hand. (This just looks like a really dumb spot to bluff given the ranges involved.) Now, it's true that this may include some Ax's we beat. But not that many, because he raised UTG. He's not showing up with A2 here. Further, he can have any of the broadway hands that crush this board, such as a hand with a Q in it, or KJ, as well.
Also, as I noted earlier, there are only 2 A's left in the deck. So we basically need both of these guys to have them, or exactly KK.
So both these guys have pretty narrow ranges with a lot of hands that beat us. But that's not because they will always have those hands. It's because the betting action gave us this information. Play the hand again, this time UTG has 99, the 3-bettor has 66, and we take it down on the turn with a bet or call down the 3-bettor's bluff.
One question that has occurred to me is whether UTG has a capping range here. It would be nice to take AA-QQ, and AK and AQs, for instance, out of his range.