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66 heads up vs. flop raise 66 heads up vs. flop raise

02-12-2017 , 01:58 AM
8 handed live game vs. aggressive opponents who probably perceive me as tight or weaker as I am not a regular in this game and have so far been doing a lot of folding.

I open 66 in MP. Only the BB calls.

Flop JT3

BB checks, I c-bet, and BB raises....

What's my plan here?
-fold and wait for a better spot?
-raise here or on the turn folding to a 3-bet but hoping to get to a showdown?

I don't love the idea of giving up the lead and just check-calling all the way to showdown.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 02:01 AM
Why can't you just call down? What does putting in additional action do other than having you put the exact same amount of $ in while not getting to showdown?

Folding flop can be correct against some opponents. Calling down good runouts (low brick board) can be correct against some opponents. But I can assure you that three betting the flop is bad against anyone, and raising any turn that isn't a 6 is awful.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 10:07 AM
Idk, if opponents think you are tight hero could be in pretty bad shape vs the range, how much fe do they really expect on this board?

given that, I lean fold
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 01:48 PM
I also fold.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 02:18 PM
pretty easy fold
You are almost drawing dead or villain is a bit above or below a coin flip vs you.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 05:28 PM
Silly me, I'd calldown unless the river brings four to a flush and or straight, but I'm quite jaded from online poker.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 05:55 PM
Blindly calling down is pretty bad IMO.

Where are we in our range? In MP, our range is mostly two cards T+, with some Axs, and 66 is one of our smallest PP. Despite 66 being a 'better' hand than KQ, against a raise, KQ >>> 66. Really, 66 is damn near the bottom of our range. Folding flop is standard against neutral villains, and still fine against aggressive ones.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 07:42 PM
I think on this flop we should be calling more often than minimum defense frequency would suggest. I don't have equilab on my new pc yet so I'm not gonna do a combo breakdown for the flop, but here's some back of my hand math:

7.5:1

1/8.5 = ~11.8%

I doubt that 66 is in the bottom 10% of a good opening range from three spots off the button.

Here's what I would fold on this flop:

A9o no heart.
A8s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.
A7s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.
A6s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.
A5s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.
A4s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.
K8s no natural nor backdoor flushdraw.

That's 21 combos. I forget how many combos are in a good opening range for three spots off the button, but I don't think it's more than 210.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 07:49 PM
I'm finding the fold pretty easily here.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.9.5.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 76.4% 76.4% 0% {TT+, 33, AJs, AhQh+, KQs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AJo, KQo, Q9o, JTo}
Player 2: 23.6% 23.6% 0% [6d6c]

Board: [Jh Th 3c ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500000 trials
Folding the flop getting 7.5-1 seems terrible.

Last edited by DesertCat; 02-12-2017 at 08:21 PM. Reason: pot odds baby
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 10:17 PM
Call down on blank turn and river, fold on scary ones. There's no reason to raise at any point.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Idk, if opponents think you are tight hero could be in pretty bad shape vs the range, how much fe do they really expect on this board?

given that, I lean fold
If our opponents think we are playing too tight, then we probably won't be exploiting them by playing too tight.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-12-2017 , 11:44 PM
Cat: using all in equity is bad. 66 has a tough time realizing equity and terrible implied odds. You also omit jk jq j9 jx tx combos, making villains range especially draw heavy.

Better is to draw branches and calculate ev. Look at runouts of blank blank; scare; blank scare.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Cat: using all in equity is bad. 66 has a tough time realizing equity and terrible implied odds. You also omit jk jq j9 jx tx combos, making villains range especially draw heavy.

Better is to draw branches and calculate ev. Look at runouts of blank blank; scare; blank scare.
Agreed. Maybe if you're Doogie Howser M.D., you can call or re-raise here. To me, without doing a game tree, it looks like suicide. Even if you read your opponent as weak, you're still frequently beat or have to evade all kinds of draws, AND scare cards.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Cat: using all in equity is bad. 66 has a tough time realizing equity and terrible implied odds. You also omit jk jq j9 jx tx combos, making villains range especially draw heavy.

Better is to draw branches and calculate ev. Look at runouts of blank blank; scare; blank scare.
If you roll all in J9+ and T9+ hands (and 98o which I hadn't included) you still have more than 18% equity. But you certainly have more as i dont think that villains are going to c/r a lot of 2nd pair type hands on this board against an MP raiser.

It's a draw heavy board. You have around 25 outs to continue with on the turn, essentially any cards 8 or lower, and most of those to continue with on river. Even if a low heart comes you still have outs to continue and an profitable river call.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 01:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DesertCat
Even if a low heart comes you still have outs to continue and an profitable river call.
I understand your position now and where we differ.
I insta fold on any turn card with an heart in it.
We do not have the 6 of heart.
The only good thing we have is position hoping that BB would give up bluffing the river so that we could have a freeSD but since BB should know those cards on the flop hit are range pretty nicely up to the river, the chance he give up seem minimal.
Imo what differentiate top player with the rest of us is exactly those terrible (imo) RIO spots.
calling might be fine but i am pretty sure for me anyway, folding on the flop decrease by a large margin my % of mistake i would do.
Time and times again i read here that folding good hand on the river is huge skill because we save 1 BB.
Here if you are wrong you pay 2,5 BB when you make a mistake.
i am not good often enough here to be that right in those spots.

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 02-13-2017 at 01:57 AM.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
The only good thing we have is position hoping that BB would give up bluffing the river so that we could have a freeSD but since BB should know those cards on the flop hit are range pretty nicely up to the river, the chance he give up seem minimal
I disagree with this part. It would be better for us if our opponent barrels all of his draws, especially if he's giving up some of his vbets, because this makes him very bluff-heavy on blank turns and rivers. Our RIO are much worse against an opponent who will give up with some of his bluffs and remain balanced on future streets.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulValente
I disagree with this part. It would be better for us if our opponent barrels all of his draws, especially if he's giving up some of his vbets, because this makes him very bluff-heavy on blank turns and rivers. Our RIO are much worse against an opponent who will give up with some of his bluffs and remain balanced on future streets.
Ding ding ding. Can't tell you how many live opponents I see who will check AT at some point but fire all shells with 98.

Now if we have a solid read that our opponent never plays draws this way, or plays draws this way rarely, we can clearly fold.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 02:07 PM
I fold this flop pretty much always. I am going to be continuing with such a large part of my range that I don't mind having some stuff I fold, and 66 seems to be a good candidate because it is either very slightly ahead or has 2 outs.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 04:14 PM
DC: that range seems super cherry picked. As phunk said it's got max draw combos and hardly any value combos. I would also fold flop.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-13-2017 , 04:24 PM
Lol. I'm starting to turn around. I think many aggro villains will play improperly. That's the key. As others mentioned,

"villains range will be too draw heavy on this board"
"villains tend to overbarrel their bluffs, give up on their weak value"

-There's this preconceived notion in LHE to only raise TP+ for value, and all OESD and FD as bluffs. Here, there are way more OESD and FD combos than TP+

-A lot of villains also play obviously if a Q/K/A comes. They'd never bet their Jx for value, so it's possible we can continue on these scare cards, too, with the right read.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-14-2017 , 06:53 PM
Can we check flop ?
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-14-2017 , 09:09 PM
I think that's an option. It certainly seems better than bet/folding.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
02-15-2017 , 10:42 AM
grunch.

this is a really interesting hand imo. there's tons of reasons to call and fold, basically 2 different lines you can consider and a ton of runouts that can change any call decision made on the flop.

i haven't run any sims here but i'd think it highly depends on who you're playing against. whether somebody perceives you as tight though isn't enough info. you need to know how they'll react to it. some will attack you, some will just say "meh, i'll just wait for a spot to really have it against him and raise," others will simply ignore it and play exactly as they always would. so here, without any info, we have to assess our choices here vs. a pretty broad range including draws, like maybe 1/3 of KQ type hands (overcards w/ a gutshot that some will play like this and others won't), 1/4 of Q8 type hands (same but w/o two overs), etc.

so the modeling here gets pretty tough and will be sensitive to choices, of which there are many. if it were a rainbow board i'd say it's basically an instafold. but, being up against GOOD draws (flush draws) that also have overs (unbeknownst to the opponent) but that we can't raise out of the pot w/ a plan to call down, means that even when we DO get the optimal outcome: k/b/kr/c; b/c; k/k, we STILL lose some of the time.

so all considered, i'll take a flop fold here even on the two tone board b/c the times we aren't against jx/tx, of which there are tons of combos, we're almost always against hands w/ at the very very least 7 outs twice from their perspective, but actually 10 outs - i.e. q8 where they are counting the queen but the 8 is still good. the only way this becomes a clear call down, or a call down only on favorable run outs is if we can include some Ahigh krs here. then we can definitely call down on low/nonheart runouts.

so in general, fold. call only in really really wide range kr spots and even then on good runouts.
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote
03-02-2017 , 09:24 PM
fold for sure otf. If we had 66 w\ 6h i peel + fold turn
66 heads up vs. flop raise Quote

      
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