Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks
I think you're missing something in your analyses, which is that we aren't facing normal raise and 3-bet ranges.
In an extremely aggressive game as described, you're going to get a lot of open QTo, 3-bet A8o situations, where folding AJo is going to be a minor-to-major mistake.
In a game like this, with position, I'd probably cap 99+, 87s+, QTs, KJs, ATs, AQo+, and AJo depending on more specific reads against the raiser and 3-bettor in the specific hand.
yea, just as i thought. i just did a 6 handed pot w/ various combinations of the following ranges:
UTG+1 15.57% 14.77% 0.80% 33+, A5s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+
UTG+2 20.08% 19.10% 0.98% 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+
MP1 15.29% 14.30% 0.99% 44+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o+, KJo+
MP2 15.22% 14.24% 0.98% 44+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o+, KJo+
MP3 15.72% 14.80% 0.92% 55+, AKs, KQs, QJs, A8o+, KJo
CO 18.13% 17.51% 0.61% 65s
I changed the tightness and looseness a bit here and there. I did 5 people with the tighter range, a mix of people as is listed here, all the way to 5 people with the looser range. It's 12%ish played for a 3bet with the initial raiser coming in with 17% of his hands UTG+1. So, uh, that's loose as sh*t lol
and in no simulation was this hand running away with things. As expected:
1. 65s does 4% points better than T9s (18.5%ish vs. 14.5%)
2. Never does 65s get above 19%
3. if you give ALL FOUR people the 44+ (15.54% of hands) range and the original PFRer his 17% range, 65s goes down to 17.62%. so generally, looser ranges lead to 65s going down
Now, other stuff:
4. AJo comes in at 11-12%. So yea, def fold the hell outta that as i expected but as people were saying is wrong.
here's AJo w/ the 3bettor having a tighter range. it does go up to just under 12% if we expand that range:
UTG+1 17.47% 16.69% 0.77% 33+, A5s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+
UTG+2 17.57% 16.38% 1.19% 88+, A6s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+
MP1 18.08% 17.24% 0.84% 44+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o+, KJo+
MP2 18.10% 17.28% 0.81% 44+, AKs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o+, KJo+
MP3 17.96% 17.03% 0.92% 55+, AKs, KQs, QJs, A8o+, KJo
CO 10.83% 9.23% 1.60% AJo
5. AQo comes in at 14-15%, so still worth tossing imo due to reverse implied odds and the cost of playing in this kinda game, and
6. AKo is 16-17% so RIGHT AT all in equity ev. I'm not folding AKo though as it's way easier to play overall i'd say than 65s since you're almost never dominated and aren't in a position where you have to call 4 bets with an oesd or flush draw and miss, for example.
7. AKs jumps to 20%, so suitedness ofc adds a ton here (
8. 65OFFSUIT does 2-3% points better than AJ lol. It's about where AQo comes in. think about that one.
9. 22-66 come in at around 15%, so they underperform, but that gives them ALL FIVE cards. so i'm definitely folding them.
10. 77 and 88 are 16-17.5%ish so i'm folding them too. i think i'd have 99 as the bare minimum here and still just hope to hit a set. 99 is 19% whereas 88 is 17.51% so that makes a big difference as a cutoff hand imo.
11. even AJs underperforms coin flip all in EV at 15.25%. ATs is like 14.25% and then it dives off a cliff starting at A9s to 12% and less.
so generally, i stand by every statement i made in this thread. all in ev includes all 5 cards, doesn't include the cost of hitting a flop hard and missing the draw or hitting and losing, and since we're really not getting much overlay vs. the field equity wise, even though we're in great position, it's not worth having such a silly wide range where we have 65s in this type of a game. I'll go with my initial range with a slight adjustment:
99+,AKo,AJs+, and KQs (KJs was 16.5% and QJs falls to ~15.5%, so maybe i'll include KJs, but QJs and below do not do as well equity wise. now, in game time, i think i can probably play well enough to include the extra 12 hands (KJs, QJs, and JTs), but even that's borderline as we can see here and i should probably fold them as well leaving just the range at the beginning of this paragraph.