At the turn donk point BB has a huge range. Many many unpaired overs, naked guts, naked one pairs, sets, 2 pairs (discount the monsters some). He doesn't have top pair or a pair and a gut or like 99 though. His chances of having a jack go down when he checks (I'd expect a donk).

The limper has a jack or a flush draw he both open limped and then peeled with almost always. He could have something like A4s I suppose also.

That help? My gut tells me if we call the turn we need to be willing to call a fair number of rivers UI.

how loose is limper peeling flop? and is he limping suited trash, or only like SCs and 1gappers? what's your guess at his lowest suited king? queen? jack?

On this board he folds nothing to the flop bet i bet (now that u mention it). No suited trash. K8s Q8s.

In fairness a year plus for you is like what 50k hands? 75?

1500 hrs

I can't stop thinking about this thread as I am partying a 40 session where I saw like 7 or 8 spots where turn donk meant draws and wierd stuff, but never strong made hand...

It depends on your definition of "strong" IMO.

one that beats second pair ?

P.S. partying = playing... love typos that Samsung 'swype' generates. This time, 'partying' can be actually be a better wording than 'playing'

player with lots of success:

player with lots of success:

other people:

gee, perhaps it is indeed close?

5 minutes of actually running some scenarios suggest this is indeed the case.

if we create a scenario in which the villain donks with this range:

Ac7c-Ac4c, QJs, JTs, KJo, QJo, JTo

we have about 15% equity vs this range. of course he could be playing a weird line with a set or with some weaker made hand.

this does of course ignore the LP player but its a simplistic baseline of our equity vs a quick range.

calling here and recording data seems to be the way to go. this is of course ignoring the possibility of raising being a superior play. the BB is folding one non-jack pair and i would venture to guess some jacks hit the muck on occasion. i dont know if raising is better, but its on the table.

i do indeed think this is close and while how you play this hand in this spot is probably not a big deal, how you approach situations similar to this might indeed be very important. dismissing a situation because 95% of the time in the past players of this description have a jack could be very problematic. the game is always evolving and the tide always rises. when it does everyone usually come along for the ride.

good post, sublime.

this does appear closer than i first thought. in my experience, when a self taught player donks on a multiway turn it's almost always b/c the card helped him and most often it's a pair. esp if somebody in the hand has been known to k/c and not k/r frequently (as is the case here w/ a loose passive bb).

more knowledgeable players would donk the jack w/ other pairs or a club draw realizing the OP's pf raising range contains many more now unpaired aces than made hands and the bb can have a large k/c range (effectively increasing his equity when he would have check called again anyways).

my assumption was that the player was more like the 'straightforward not very knowledgeable self taught' player. the range here can vary greatly from player to player so in this spot, in general (and here specifically), i'd still lean towards folding here as i don't think there's enough value in paying 2 bets to see a showdown (the 83ish% of the time we dont improve) vs. a standard self taught player.

I think this spot is close, but with the BB still to act behind us, I think it pushes it towards a fold.

Only popping in here to say I'm entertained by those who use their number of live hours played as evidence of a correct strategy.

LOL @ 1500-1800 hours. Imagine if you used that amount of hands online as proof of your poker expertise.

I've seen multiples upon multiples of guys who have DERB'd it up for a year+ and are not at the tables anymore.

this

fwiw raising turn > calling > folding

since we're going to likely call a river bet anyway we should just pop it now to get the pot heads up. if villain has a fd or a gutshot (and by calling turn we've already accepted that these are in his range some %) we benefit substantially by pushing the loose passive player off a gutshot/ten outer. who knows maybe the loose passive even folds a small pair though i'm not counting on it.

these factors:

1) we are credibly repping a strong hand by raising
2) villain isn't a super aggro player
3) his line indicates a hand that can really never 3bet us
4) turn call makes us comfortable with the idea of showing down anyway

make this a pretty easy turn raise