Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond
I would check raise flop. People probably 3 bet me lighter than Jon though: hard to imagine someone not having KQ in their range vs. me.
But even so, I think HJ can lead with AK, and sometimes even JJ or QQ to see where he's at. And I feel were definitely ahead of button's range after he calls. I think check calling the whole way is giving up too much value.
Another aspect is I think we might actually lose more by playing passively when we are behind. I feel because our hand is undefined, we will basically never be able to fold. E.G. if HJ bets turn and button raises, I don't think we can be confident enough to fold. But if we check raise flop, and then it goes bet-raise-3 bet on turn, I think we can fold.
Yes, sometimes HJ has a set, but the fact is we are just supposed to lose a big pot when that happens. If he played his hand properly, he'd probably win more than his silly line anyway.
I do think it's pretty close. I don't think I'd check raise AK here, and definitely wouldn't check raise KQ.
yep the numbers support you.
if you put HJ on only KQs, AK, AA, TT, KK. and you put BUT on TT+ and AK. then its like 40/40/20 .....
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: KdTs2c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.82% 36.30% 2.52% { AdAh }
MP3 39.66% 37.49% 2.17% { KK+, TT, AKs, KQs, AKo }
BU 21.52% 20.85% 0.67% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
If you add KQo to the HJ then we have like 47%.