Stumbled upon old database last night and after crying over how much I was down looked at some hands for fun. Thought this was pretty interesting from villains perspective (regular poster here), curious on thoughts.

9 or 8 handed 50/100 online. Pro opens UTG opens with super nitty pf stats (probably like 14/11 9 handed) and we defend Ks9s.

Flop is 3s 5s 8d and we check call, turn is Kh and we check raise and he calls. River is 7s, we bet and he raises....

I think we have a pretty easy 3bet here. Our hand looks like a naked king and given the narrow ranges involved, he should be waiting for the river with AK+, I'd imagine.

Agreed. And I guess we cry call a 4? Assume that he can't have QJ very often here, too.

It's a case where UTG folds JQs, J-10s prelfoo, so the only flushes in his range are likely Ace high. I also think there's a good chance UTG won't raise AK-AA on this particular river (it's hard to comment exactly as games played differently 5-6 years ago).

I was UTG here and was shocked that BB only bet-called river, but think its actually pretty close after giving it some thought.

I think most players would 3! turn with AK/AA here. QJs 8 handed folding is pretty nitty. I still think its close btw a call or 3!. I'd probably just call but it doesn't really matter.

I don't think it's that nitty at all considering BB is a very good player and the game was overall terrible and I had no idea why I was even playing it. Live 20 or even 40-80 is quite a different story.

Ya. Actually thinking, if we're BB, we may actually be able to fold to 4! if we 3 bet. We're really only targeting AA/77 with a 3 bet, IMO. Maybe the occasional QJs. Only hand I'm confident we get an extra bet from is AA, really.

Unless AA folds to the 3 river 3 bet

But will he call the 3bet?

Probably sometimes. We are crushing AK+.

how long ago was this? online went through a big period of super heightened turn aggression where people would 3b quite a range and also balance a bit w/ calling / waiting to river. so kinda depends on what was the prevailing play at the time (even taking into acct how narrow the range is in this spot, the post flop streets could have played v differently depending on when and what site etc.)

that said, overall if you're not 3betting this river then i really don't know what to say. it's HU online in a blind defense spot where the bb's range is heavily weighted towards Ks so UTG shouldn't be just calling AK here or AA on the river given the no 3b on the turn. he's also probably paying off since people with super nitty pf stats are way more likely to call their big hands (large negative correlation btw wtsd and vpip) for 1 bet closign the action on this river.

i get what you're saying about if he has a flush then that sux and we lose 2 and that he may not call w/ AK, but it's way better than 2:1 that you get paid off vs. 3b and have to pay off yourself if you're the bb.

imo he does not put you on a flush on the river because you would have c/r the flop with it in his mind.

If you do not 3bet with the third nutz, than you only 3bettting with 1hand which i think it should bad from an exploitation view.

Maybe the turn is uninteresting to you guys, but I'd check call, especially against a player described as super nitty.

I like the river as played.

I like the turn check call too.


For the river, I would need to know more about your opponent.
Can he have 77, A8s?
Would he barrel AsQs AsJs on th turn?
How much would he wait with AA AK until the river?
Would he call your 3bet with AA, AK?

He can have 6 AA, 8 AK. 14 combinations.
3 combinations of 77.
4 combinations of possible flushes. AQs,Ajs,Ats,A8s.

If I would be your opponent, I dont think I would bet the turn with As8s, or AsQs. And I would probably wait with AA and AK a lot. So against me you should 3bet the river easily.

Edit: However I don't think I would call you that much, so I'm not sure. It's pretty close.

super nitty pf guys back then were loathe to release hands postflop. turn kr/cd was pretty standard, esp since another standard balancing line was to kc flop/kr turn w/ a wide variety of hands in hu pots (moreso than doing more flop kr as balance). now, this was usually not from utg -> bb defense, but that def had a bucket as well.

turn could be a k, randomized draw from flop, or pair turned into valuebluff kr for balance, which is why turn re-aggression was also higher (and was also balanced w/ waiting to the river).

for this reason, live poker seems so simple nowadays. i haven't thought about a hand of this type in a long time due to it simply not coming up (or maybe i'm not playing as well i should be and thus not recognizing these instance; however, i think that's unlikely given the opposition i'm playing against).

I've seen you make this argument before, but I disagree for a couple reasons:

1) being at or near the top of your range does not make aggression profitable.

2) thinking of King high flushes as the second nuts, or third nuts in this case, is a mistake because Axss is not just one combo.

On the river I likely would have called AA/AK, raise- folded AsKx AsAx, and raise called 77.

If that's true (maybe it's not, it was long time ago), then when we 3 bet we won an extra bet vs 3 combos of 77 and lose 2 bets vs 3 combos of AsTs +

Now this is quite subjective and its easy to manipulate assumptions to make basically any line correct. Like if we raise-call AK+ (which I prob do now) then 3 betting easily best..

Probably not, in my experience not a ton of people invest 5 big bets to bluff somebody off a range that only consists of AA, sets and the nut flush (although he's only investing 2 once he relazies that's the range)

True

But for the #1 i disagree in the sense that if near the top of your range it is bad to raise for value, than it means you made a mistake somewhere on previous street.

How do you think we can be exploited in this spot?

Maybe he can expand his value range knowing he will never get raised except vs the nutz.
I might be wrong but it would be perfect vs this kind of player to delay often a 3 bet on the turn when c/r and simply have a vast value raising range on the river .

Lets say you cr the turn on a 9988 board with k9. your opponent calls. The river is an A you bet and your opponent raises. Would you 3bet with the 2nd best hand in your range? I dont think so. Did you made a mistake somewhere?

Our value range is AK+. How do you expect to turn this into a vast range? Raise the river with a whole bunch of hands we don't have to begin with?

I think it's kind of important how often he folds. If the number is high (and I think it likely is), then that's much less of a reason to 3bet.

Also, in my experience, the waiting for the river people were pretty few and far between. It just generally wasn't (and still isn't) seen that much. I think it's far from a slam dunk 3 bet.

obviously, like in all situations, exception exist to contradict some generalisation.
Here on a dry board like this, our value range is smaller, so of course our value raising range are converging faster .