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What ranges do the villains have?
Whoops, I've been spelling "villain" wrong, haha!
V1 raised under the gun preflop and from my observations he is relatively snug in that situation, showing up with perhaps something like:
88+, AJo+, ATs+, KJs+
I'm not sure if a few extra suited cards will sneak in here due to the fact that two people were walking and so only 8 players were dealt into this hand.
With this flop and with this pot size, he might be calling with his whole range (possibly dumping 88 and 99 with no club).
V2 reraised preflop, but her preflop range is too wide for this situation. In this session she seems to be reraising with most of the hands that she normally cold calls with. I think she can have something like:
77+, ATo+, KJo+, A7s+, KJs+, QJs
However, when she raises this flop after I cap and c-bet, I believe she has:
AA, JJ, 77, A7s, AJs, AJo, AKs, AKo, Ac8c, Ac9c, AcTc, AcQc, KcQc (discounted) and maybe AcQo (discounted).
Note that I'm not doing well against this range, but I'm not doing so poorly that I should fold getting 17 to 1 either obviously.
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What sort of range do you think V1 puts you on when you call V2's flop raise?
This is a good question. I believe that V1 fully expects me to 3! my AK, AQ, AJ, AA, JJ part of my range here. Once I just call, I believe he is putting me on:
KK, QQ, TT
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Why do you think V1 three-bet after you called?
This is an interesting play imo. I believe there are a couple of reasons for this play.
First, once I just call the flop raise, he likely feels like I'm in the weakest part of my range for this board, which would be my pocket pairs. Therefore, if he was unsure before where he was at with, say, AQ, he might now be confident that such a hand has me beaten. So, he might feel like he can now jam AK and AQ for value.
Likewise, if he had a decent draw (like KcQc), he may not have wanted to drive out the third player before, but now that she is clearly in, he can now jam the draw for value.
Another possibility is that he was assuming that I would be double barreling a large percentage and he was planning on delaying to the turn to raise in order to create a less desirable price for the third player to continue with a draw (In other words, the pot was so bloated preflop that he might feel that a flop raise does not protect his hand, therefore, he must wait until the turn to raise to protect his hand). However, once the third player raises and I just call, his plan to raise the turn is now thwarted since I am unlikely to lead out on the turn. In addition, the third player might be free carding, so he must now jam his perceived equity advantage now and bet again on the turn for value, knowing that he can no longer protect his hand anyway.
So, after the flop action, I feel like I can narrow down V1's range to:
AK, AQ, AJ, AA, JJ, AcTc (discounted), KcQc
I discount AcTc because it makes more sense for him to just raise the flop right away with that one imo.
Ok, so if I stove my hand against these two ranges on this flop (I apologize, I'm not familiar with how to post stove results into these threads), my result is that I have 14.87% equity in this hand.
Again, I'm not doing well against their ranges, but at 11 to 1 (after the flop is capped) I still have to continue. Which brings us to ...
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Having capped preflop and led out with TPTK, I really don't like just calling V2's raise.
It seems like the general consensus here is that I should just go ahead and 3! the flop. Normally, I tend to agree with that and I typically do raise or fold with my made hands on the flop in multiway situations.
However, I have some questions about this which I hope you guys can help to answer...
It seems to me that the reasons to raise or reraise on the flop with a decent made hand such as TPTK is to extract value (because we have more than our share of pot equity) and also to protect our hand (by thinning the field to improve our winning chances, OR, by causing calling mistakes from weak draws who no longer have the correct price to continue).
However, here is a situation where the pot is so bloated that raising is unlikely to protect my hand. Furthermore, if my estimation is correct and I really do only have about 15% equity in this pot, what value am I extracting with a raise?
In other words, suppose I have some sort of a made hand with decent showdown value and yet, I have only 15% equity in a 3-way pot? OR, suppose I have some sort of a weak draw, such as a gutshot draw to the nuts which has no current showdown value, also with around 15% equity in a 3-way pot? Why would it be correct to raise in one case and call in the other case?
Thanks for your help!