Had this pretty interesting turn spot come but thoughts on all streets welcome as some other lines may make turn less interesting.

9 handed 40 Holdem. UTG is older guy I've never played with before but seeks to be playing sood and hasn't gotten out of line once. Button is a fish that thinks he's good, some may disagree and consider him an expert though. Have tons of history with button and we have very good grasp of one another's range.


UTG opens, button 3 bets and I call 99 BB. Flop is QQ2 and gets checked through. Turn 8 (no flush draw)... I check UTG bets and button raises.

Button is actually really good in case of confusion

I like preflop
I like flop

Not being result oriented as this spot is disgusting, but I think turn is a snap bet. The hand isn't strong enough to k/r either players on the turn and it's also too strong to bluff catch. Also if UTG checks turn, there is a good chance the hand gets checked around.

The only benefit to checking turn is to balance and bluff catch a screw play. I'm not sure how necessary balance is in this spot as BTN basically opted to not go for value on the flop.

As played, I think the turn is a toss. The only way 99 is good is if UTG is value betting worse than 77 (such as AK) and BTN is making a play or free showdowning (and not screwplaying).

is BTN good or is he a fish that thinks he's good? which is it?

Hard to do anything different preflop and flop. I suppose if BTN is capable of checking back flops you can consider capping pre or donking flop, but still prob not with this hand or on this flop. (I don't think BTN should be checking behind anything on this flop)

Just donk the river, choose some less vulnerable hands to attempt a x/r with. But as played I think you have to just call and evaluate after further action and river. Your hand is way too strong to fold imo, and not strong enough to 3bet, soooo . . . call.

Button is very good. If he was bad it's probably an easy check-fold

Also curious what you think buttons check back range js here when we decide we should lead turn?

Helps to know if UTG has a 4b range PF, tho the likely answer is no.

@Valente. Your thinking is too loose. I nit up a tonne in this spot. Competent player opens UTG 9 handed. Very good player 3b a 9-handed UTG range. UTG's range is at worst KQ/AT/77+. 3b range is something like AQ/AJs/88+. Calling PF is already close in my mind. Calling turn look spewy unless both players are maniacs. We beat practically nothing in their vbet range.

Hi Jon,

I've never played this high. I like check call one fold for two here. If I only had two big bets left, I'd call. As played, you're risking losing more than just the two bets, unless you plan on folding to the possible 3 bet on the turn or facing one bet on the river not closing the action.

The description of the players is confusing. Is there a player missing?

I like the turn check. UTG's range is still uncapped and strong. I don't know what the buttons check back range is but I would guess some monsters, AK,AJs, maybe AA. I would expect him to bet all other pairs. I wouldn't expect him to raise his UIP overs on the turn.

As played, I would fold the turn for the same reason I would check it. I think your behind quite often. The few times your ahead you will get sucked out on a decent percentage of the time.

Are there any hands you are capping pre flop here?

No and button knows this, UTG likely doesn't.
Fwiw I thought button most likely hands were probably 88-TT, and AJs, maybee AA.

If you have zerp capping range i think you can fold this, i guess you must be near your buttom of your range in this situation ?

I think button check back on this texture is bad. His preflop range is the strongest of the 3 and this board doesn't change that. I'd feel pretty good value betting twice and folding to a raise from either player.

Actually on this flop texture, BB's range is slightly the strongest... All three are quite close though. BTN's range is actually weakest.

That seems weird but ok. I guess he doesn't have any Qx combos except QQ and maybe AQs. If his range is behind then maybe he should check back his whole range. I feel like trying to bifurcate such a narrow range will make him pretty unbalanced.

I still think betting 99 twice for us makes the most sense. I don't think we can check fold for 1 bet at any point and I think the bet goes in better by betting because worse hands that might have checked back will call. I think we can bet fold 99 without getting exploited because we also have AQ and bigger pairs in our betting range.

I gave UTG range of 77+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo

I gave button range of TT+, AQs+, AKo

I gave big blind range of 77+, AJs+, KQs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo+

With these ranges, button had the most equity at 37.6% (UTG had 32.3%, big blind had 30.1%). Where are my ranges screwed up?

I think Jon is folding the weaker suited connectors in the bb and the Btn is 3betting lighter. UTGs range might be a half notch too loose but seems pretty reasonable. In any case, the ranges are quite close on this texture so it's almost certainly correct to check back some portion of your range otb here. It's worth noting that you should not chk back your whole range when your range is slightly behind just as you shouldn't bet your whole range when you're slightly ahead.

Yea I would think button is closer to 77+ on pairs, maybe 88 or 99 idk. I'm more inclined to 3 bet 77-99 vs random unknowns. Like OTR said, I'm tighter pf here. That may be a pretty accurate range for this spot generally but I'm playing less hands when expert is the 3! And UTG doesn't get out of line. So the hands that really give me and equity disadvantage in your sim are the hands I'm least likely to have. Your going to see a big improvement when you take away some of those.

The reason I think it makes sense to either bet 100% or check 100% here from button's perspective is because his range is so narrow. I feel like if you split his already narrow range into even narrower checking and betting ranges, his play will become unbalanced as he will not have enough hands in either range to be able to call down or raise the various turn and river cards that will hit.

I feel like this is a similar concept to pre-flop strategies that involve not splitting our range when doing so will make our hand easier to read. For example, I think most good players will call 100% in a standard bb vs. button dynamic, but many good players (and heads up bots) will split their ranges to include 3 betting from the big blind vs. button in a heads up match. I feel like the respective narrowness of the ranges is the key difference between these two situations.

So I would agree that in a wider range situation, like a flop with the button vs. big blind, one does not have to always bet or always check to play optimally when the ranges are close (although if the board strongly favors one player's range over another, then always betting or checking probably does become correct again).

Do you disagree with this concept or do you think I am just giving it too much weight?

I think I disagree. I think you can split your ranges effectively here and chking 88 is part of that.

When you c-bet this flip with hands like AJ you have less than 10% equity 3 ways. Sure you will be balanced but that's a large price to pay when the BB will fold exactly 0% of the time and you are a 9-1 dog.


Here's an extreme example: UTG accidentally flashed his hands and you see he has AA, would you still c-bet this flop to be balanced?

This seems impossible on any board texture, unless at least 2 of the players are playing bad.

But I do agree with this

I think button should fold AJs preflop as he is 42% vs. the range I assigned UTG (which is pretty loose considering UTG is an older guy.) I realize button doesn't need quite 50% equity due to the dead money of the blinds in the pot and the fact that he is playing in position, but I think that's enough of an equity deficit that it will be difficult to overcome.

But if you did find yourself in the spot with AJs, I don't think the equity disadvantage vs. their ranges on the flop is necessarily enough to check back. Because if you check back, you are going to have to call a turn bet so that bet is still going in there as an equity dog. Whereas if you bet the flop, you would have the option of not putting in the turn bet.

For the AA question, I think it depends whether he knows you know he has AA. If he knows, I think you should probably check back your whole range here (because your range is behind his). And if he is playing smart, he should bet the turn at which point we can call hands that have the right price, and raise the right combination of queens and bluffs.

If he doesn't know you saw the AA, then you can play very exploitatively because you know much more about his range than he realizes.

I agree with folding AJs preflop. I'd check the flop with it if I somehow ended up in this spot with AJs. What you're missing is this: you are not exploited when you're forced to fold a low equity hand. This is true heads up, but it's especially true in multiway pots. The big blind paid the price to play preflop* and utg has lots of hands that are currently crushing AJs, so giving up is totally fine imo.

Regarding the bold bit: I'd fold the turn and feel fine about it.

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I agree with Jon that the big blind should fold the weaker suited connectors preflop. I'd probably call KQs, but I'd fold the rest. Make it a middle position opener and a button 3 bet, and I can get behind calling as low as 98s preflop.

If it is correct to fold the turn (and it might be) then we are still not in as good a situation as we would have been had we bet the flop and then checked back the turn. Because we certainly have the right odds to put in one bet on the flop if that will allow us to see the turn and river. Granted, sometimes someone will check-raise the flop or donk the turn or whatever so it becomes more complicated. But it is also not as simple as saying we are just putting in a bet badly against their ranges, because we are increasing our chance of winning the whole pot.

For what it is worth, 98s has slightly better equity for big blind than either AQo or KQs preflop, in both the ranges I originally assigned and when we add AJs and AQo to button's range. If we also add 99 to button's range, the equities are almost identical and if we add 88, AQo and KQs are slightly more favorable.

I screwed up the calculation earlier when I said AJs was 42%. It is actually 45%.

I think you can take a lot of the bigger hands, say QQ+ AKs out of UTG range because almost all randoms with cap those there given the action.

In JL's shoes I would have donked the turn under the "easier to play" theory that everyone hates. I think when you donk the turn here both players play honestly against you and if you get raised you are beat.