80/160 late night 4 handed. I raise AJ red on button. Expert crusher 3b sb, giant fish calls bb.

Flop 964 two spades bet call call.

Turn As bet, call, on me. I think this spot is tough but raise is kinda clearly better fwiw. I raised, sb 3 bet after tanking. Fish folded. Now I think life sucks.

What are you raising on this flop?

He raised turn.

As for the turn, I think it's close. Against a crusher, I think "call and fold a river" is too simplistic. I might just fold this right here. His value range has us near to totally dead, most likely.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt, as I've never played close to 80.

you're missing the point

I misread, I thought he asked why and not what.

i'd call. can still suck out on a lot of aces-up hands with a j, 9 or 6. maybe a river spade would slow him down or would it be a standard b/c?

I would have capped pre, but there's a whole thread about that. Seems fine through the turn raise. I would call down now. Player certainly has some bluffing range. I don't think it's impossible that he has a worse made hand either. A lot of good players are too aggro in spots like this imo esp with the middle player. Plus we're being subsidized by 2p outs to a degree. I would also fold a spade river as our calling range will be widened by hands weaker turn hands that have made a flush.

Seems like we should float a spade on the river too. I'm not sure what else we would do it with.

I don't like folding vs. villain as described.

i think your first turn decision is more interesting even though you think raising is clearly better.

also, are you playing the 10k 2-7 today?

It is interesting but I feel like good handreaders when they are beaten by AJ are almost more likely to pay off on turn bet-raise than they are on turn bet-call, river check-bet action; which makes it a must raise imo.
This also means you probably can't fold as played but you're obv. just gonna lose a ton.

If I won the lottery and took a shot at high stakes, I'd calldown from the turn and bet if checked to, but the real reason I'm posting is to ask:

Is it ok that the one pair hands that I'm raising the turn with all have a spade?

You'd call the reraise or just call the initial bet?

The initial bet, but if I raised then I'd call down non spade rivers.

What range would you put SB on when he bets the turn?

I think raising the turn is pretty clearly correct and not actually that interesting. I'm pretty concerned that the presence of the fish is gonna expand experts value range to the point where we beat some of it. At first I thought we should just call down and take our medicine but now I'm kinda tempted to call and raise the river.

Sets, Q9s, K9, any ace, K7+, 77x, 55x, TT-KK.

That does seem like a lot of hands we beat that will probably call down the turn raise and probable river bet. I just find myself always with a spade in my hand when I raise the turn here with one pair except against over aggressive players.

i guess it's not that interesting when we don't know that villain is going to 3bet.

Yeah just saying as an individual decision point I think not raising is an obvious if somewhat common mistake

I think it would be wider than that for a lot of guys. Depends on how gto this particular player is. I would expect villain to bet all non-Kx one spade hands a high percentage and random non-spade broadways some amount.

Just to expand a little about raising the river. I think this is a spot where both hero and villain are pretty value oriented. And for good reason: the pot is huge and good players know that they should bluff less as the pot gets bigger.

That being said we have to bluff sometimes and we should bluff in the way we'd play our value range, by calling the 3bet and raising the river, (we can talk more about this if you guys want). The question I have is this, is it better to choose a value hand to turn into a bluff (like axts) or a missed draw we decided to raise on the turn 8s7x.

My feeling is the latter is probably better in this case for a lot of reasons. So I guess I've talked myself out of raising the river here.

I would never fold here and also don't think our hand is strong enough to put in anymore action ui. I'd only raise a non-spade J river

A raise wouldn't be for value

And if the river was checked to you?

you mean on a blank river? I def agree. we should have less than 25% equity against his value range

I am interested in this, because I would think a four bet on the turn makes more sense. I definitely think we will lose value sometimes with a call and plan to raise the river because there are certainly scare cards that can turn him into a check-caller on the river. On the turn, I feel like he either has a strong hand that is not going to fold to a 4 bet now that the pot is massive, or a semibluff that can't fold because it has outs.

As far as the hand is concerned, I think it's between fold the turn and call the turn/river. I lean towards calling down because he tanked before 3 betting the turn. In my experience, this is rarely an act by an expert and more likely to mean he was actually thinking, meaning I can discount the top part of his range that he would likely have reraised in rhythm.