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Old 02-04-2012, 11:39 PM   #46
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Re: Three Handed Turn Spot

results?
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Old 02-05-2012, 09:38 AM   #47
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Re: Three Handed Turn Spot

I had a flush. That's all I remember.
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:59 AM   #48
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Re: Three Handed Turn Spot

I vote raise the turn. If the BB is a strong player, as described, he should be much more balanced than 2pair+ when he leads out on the turn. Our range should be over 50% of all hands based on our preflop and flop action. We have a very strong holding, given that range. If he is unbalanced enough to only have 2pair+ on the turn, then I need to reassess my read of his quality as a player, especially considering that he didn't CR the flop.

He should have CR'd the flop with a flush draw more often than not. Even an A-high flush draw should play more as a draw than a made hand because a lot of turn/river combos will be very tough to call down with A high. This is a bad board to wait for a turn semibluff raise because it connects with so many hands, but if he's not including semibluffs in his flop or turn CR range, his CR range is unbalanced and he's just missing out on a lot of opportunities to win pots when his flush misses. Surely he is not waiting for the turn to CR with any hands that he plans to CR, with another player in the pot and a wet board? Again, if a flush is a big part of his turn donk range, I need to reassess my read.

The turn raise accomplishes a lot by charging the SB 2 bets. He has a lot of 1 heart hands and pair/gutshot hands that we would like to charge extra.

Also, it balances our own turn raising range. If we are only raising the turn with 2pair+, then our own range is becoming unbalanced given that we have a super wide range on the flop. FWIW, AQ is close to the bottom of my turn raising range and I definitely fold to a 3 bet. I think it's unlikely I'm raising there with a pure draw because while it's nice to have balance, it's also nice to have the small blind in there if I'm drawing and it's also nice to be able to raise certain rivers after calling the turn. I don't think my lack of raising the turn with a pure draw unbalances my range too much because I'm still raising with a hand like AhQx.
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Old 02-06-2012, 04:04 PM   #49
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Re: Three Handed Turn Spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by private joker View Post
I'd need to know more about BB's play but full ring specialist and nitty image leads me to believe he isn't 3-betting this turn unless you're crushed. Even if he's capable of a creative play from time to time, is it often enough that he's going to bet/3-bet a hand you're either ahead of or have a ton of outs again? Like, I don't think he's even 3-betting J9 here.

So that leads me to want to r/f like Cap'n says. Just too many draws we don't want SB to pay cheaply for. And since SB only bluffs in straightforward spots, he's never c/3-betting here on a bluff. So I think a raise is pretty safe. Gets value when we're ahead, protects hand vs. SB, and slows down BB on a lot of gnarly rivers. If I raised and just got called by BB, I would bet a brick river (non-heart 7 or smaller) and check behind K/T/hearts.

Devil's advocate argument is: what is BB's turn donking range here? If it includes hands like KhJx and AhJx or even QxTh, then great. But if he's only taking this line with crafty monsters then a raise isn't so great. I just have a hard time believing he's going to bet/3-bet this turn when he wouldn't c/r the flop having trapped the SB.
I think he has J9, 810 something like that. By donking the turn he is just asking to be called or raised. I think we need to make a tight fold here especially with another player to act.
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