I raise J8 in CO, Tough TAG calls BB.
T 9 4 check, bet, call
9 check, bet, raise, call
T bet, fold

I regret not 3betting the turn and firing river but I was curious about what hands everyone thinks would make good 3bet bluff candidates here. Also what rivers if any should I give up on? Let's just assume a GTO opponent for sake of discussion.

I guess what I'm actually wondering is am I better of bluffing with a hand that can safely fold to a 4bet or is this just the perfect hand to do it with?

Edit: I wrote a bunch of stuff because I thought villain check raised flop. But I think my conclusion is the same in actual hand. I'd prefer to 3 bet 6c7c because I could target more hands.

You have time to edit this. Villain just x/c'ed the flop and then x/r'ed the turn.

Yeah I mean I think your instinct is right, just have to make a play for the pot with this hand. As played I think you should raise fold river cuz he seems so polarized

Issue w/ 3 bet and barreling off w/ this exact hand is that the J and 8 are two cards I'd expect to feature prominently in villain's bluffing range. Given your image, I wouldn't try to blow people off value on paired T hi boards when you open in the CO.

I'd start by counting how many value combos you have in your turn 3betting range. I think you will have a fair amount which should mean a hand like this should probably be 3bet at a high frequency. One thing to keep in mind is that you will have both heart and club combo draws that you can 3bet...7h8h, 7c8c, 8c6c, 8h6h, etc. (assuming those are in your preflop range). I'd guess that 3betting all combo draws will be over bluffing. I wouldn't 3bet stuff that can call the river, like JcKc, JhKh, KhQh, KcQc, Axhh/Axcc.

Good candidate for the semibluff, nine's a card you can rep, and even a J can bail you out.

wouldn't this be the worst hand to raise fold river tho? you block everything.

Thought: it's better to bluff with ss/sd/dd combos due to card removal effects. Card removal effects are more important than the extra FD equity.

Agree you should 3b turn 100%. Don't think you should raise river. Better to use a hand like KQ (I'd use Spades and Diamonds).

Do you bet the turn with KQ?

Can't bluff the river if I don't bet the turn. Seriously I'd check it some and bet it some.

Khi has enough SDV to call in this big pot. Much better to bluff river with 88-, since those block even fewer bluff combos for villain.

I'd mix it up with all combo draws between calling and 3 betting the turn. I'd 3 bet most often with the dominating draws and least often with the dominated draws. I think bluffing a specific hand here 100% of the time is both transparent in a hand reading sense and not as profitable as getting bluff value out of all the available combo draws.

This has the effect of giving me a good mix of draws that can both hit most rivers and be bet for value, and miss a good mix of rivers that can be bluffed with the non showdownable combo draws, as well as a mix of turn 3 bet bluffs that may give up on the river and win showdown sometimes.

With reads, I will change to a pure strategy depending on my opponent's mistakes.

I think this is exploited by a big blind that 4 bet bluffs with these exact hands and just calls the 3 bet 100% of the time with the dominated draws. Because doesn't it suck to 3 bet the turn as the cutoff with something like a dumb end gutshot + dominated flushdraw, get 4 bet by the big blind, hit the river, and still lose?

To expand on this: If you 3 bet bluff exclusively with the non showdownable hands like the J8cc in the op, and then you get called and a blank hits the river, you're gonna have way too many non showdownable hands in your river range. If you choose to bluff all of them on the river, then you'll be very likely to have too many bluffs. If you choose to bluff just some of them, then you probably shouldn't have 3 bet bluffed the turn with them 100% of the time.

If this were a HU spot, cepheus would 3bet bluff certain combos with 100% frequency and he is, by definition, not transparent in a hand reading sense. In fact, doing anything other than that for those specific hands would be transparent unless it was part of an alternate GTO solution.

Ok but cepheus has way more value hands than the cutoff here. The more narrow the ranges involved are, the less hands we should bluff at 100% frequency. I'm curious to know which hands are 3 bet at 100% frequency.

I do take your point, by the way, that only semi bluffing hands with no showdown value is likely exploitable.

Good point.