Full Ring 40/80 Commerce.

UTG+2 is not particularly good at poker for these stakes, but he tries to play well, knows not to play utter trash, doesn't really open limp, cold calls a little bit, but not too much (stuff like A9s, KJ, etc). He's shown me he's willing to fold a pair when I show a lot of strength, not sure it matters in this spot though, but he's certainly not a showdown monkey. We know each other but have limited history. My image is certainly LAG, but not ridiculously so. Other 2 players in hand are not good.

UTG+2 raises, CO and BTN cold call, Hero calls in the BB with 67

Flop: 2 4 Q

Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, CO and BTN fold, Hero raises...


It just feels like the pot is pretty big already so I'm getting a decent price to bluff here and my hand has pretty reasonable equity vs his range but I can't just call. I can turn a lot of good draws even if he has something. I plan to barrel every turn other than probably an ace, and give up on the river if he calls me twice. Thoughts?

Edit: I might 3-barrel if the turn is broadway and he just calls, hoping to fold out a missed AJ type hand when he calls the turn T, for example.

Not even a gutshot draw. Just a backdoor flush or runner-runner. You have 6 high. Just fold and look for a better spot to bluff.

Super dry board. PP isn't folding.

Like it just fine, anything is better than folding

I'm not trying to get JJ-55 to fold. I'm targeting ace high, KJ/KT, maybe JTs, plus any random suited connectors he just might have decided to raise (don't really know if he would have like 9Ts here, but he might).

Do you have a flatting range at all in this spot OTF?

Don't think flatting is as bad as you are making it out to be. Being HU means you can flat a strong range (multiway, we should delay much less) Fold turn if you don't connect; Options if you do. If he checks behind, you get the option to lead river.

Also don't pre-decide that you will only double barrel and not triple barrel. Look at the texture and who it Favours. 3/5 helps your range more than his. Three barrel if those come.

I like it. Definitely an attackable board, and a hard one for him to make a thin calldown with a hand like AT due to the lack of obvious draws you could be checkraising.

By this logic we should just x/r any two napkins and make instant profit. But then he should adjust and call down with any big lettered card. Where does the madness end?!

I understand, but my general feeling is that if it comes 8-8, he's not calling turn folding river often at all. Or if it comes 8-2 or whatever. Once he makes the call on a brick turn, he's probably showing down, so I'm not mindlessly betting the river even if it is a 3 and that's "good" for my range vs his range.

Could argue, i guess, that if a 3/5 rolls off on the turn that I need to bet the river too since he could peel turn with Ace-high + wheel draw.

How often do you think this is coming up between us that he's going to be making some King-high call down adjustment? We're talking about his EP raise, 2 cold calls, my super wide BB defend, flop comes big-little-little he bets, gets 2 folds, and now i wake up c/r. If this happens 6 times in the rest of my life vs this player I'd be surprised. He isn't going to be able to make an adjustment to whatever I do, because by the time it comes up again, he'll have forgotten it happened the first time. Even if he calls me down I can just muck and pretend I was OESD or something, so he can't even see I did it with complete air.

Vs non-excellent players in the 40/80, I'm not worried about balance.

Yes. A3, A5, AJ, KJ, 33, 55 I probably just call. K2s I probably call as well. A2 and A4 I'm c/r so when the A peels off on the turn i can b3b. Not sure how I feel about my other 4x hands. I have probably 34s, 45s, 46s, K4s in my range preflop, I might be c/c some of them. I don't really like c/c with sets and 2pair here though, just doesn't jive with my overall strategy/approach.

what has he seen you do w/ a Q in this spot (top pair on a dry board)? lots of people do the 'ol k/c, k/r the turn play if no A/K come.

generally you found a great spot to k/r here and i don't think it's wise to give up on many rivers other than an ace pretty much. lots of people call the flop and turn w/ a mid pair and then fold the river since there's no draw and you'd be very likely betting for value from his perspective.

I probably c/r the flop with a Q as well. But note that this spot is at least semi unique in that the Q is significantly different than a Jack high board, for example, and we went 4way to the flop but now are HU, and i'm in the BB.

I think villain will be double barreling a lot here, and you should have a stronger flatting range so you can have a wider x/r range on the turn.

You have limited history and what you do list about him are positive poker traits.

I'm trying to figure out why he's 'not particularly good at these stakes'

My post wasn't about balance. It was pontificating what would happen if you x/r'ed super wide.

I'm changing my tune on this hand. I do like x/r'ing super wide in this spot, because I think most people will give you too much credit for a hand. Your line of thinking is that he will fold a lot of Ax combos. If that is true, bluff away. You're getting 5-2 on a double barrel, and it sounds like he'll fold 30-40% of his range OTT.

He missed river value bets a lot, isn't particularly good at hand reading, LOLslowplays, cold calls a bit, etc. He's not beating the 40 game, but he's trying, and he isn't giving it away.

I'm just asking but is he really trying to bluff through 3 people (2 of them in position) with AT, ,KJ, KT, JTs, 98s and the like?

Maybe the river would be the time he might finally release the mid pair and an ace would seemingly be the best card to get him to do that.

I'm confident he is c-betting most of his range on this flop. Two cold callers with likely crap and a BB with a wide range, he's definitely betting nearly all of his range here.

lol, napkins. gets me every time.

Fold

If he is one of the players that miss value bets on the river a lot then he is definitely not bluffing this flop.

I don't think it's a terrible line, you did get the other two players to fold. But even with some good cards that can come on the turn for you, you're essentially trying a bluff here. I know I've done it on occasion too.

He didn't get anyone to fold (yet), the other two folded to the preflop raiser's c-bet.

seems standard vs players who auto c-bet UI Ax hands

given the other two guys already folded you could also c/c and then c/r low turn cards, so you might fold out pp's < Q