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Old 06-16-2012, 12:22 AM   #1
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simple river decision

I have a short history with the villain. He is an old LP reg. He will call down with second pair no kicker frequently. When he bets the flop, turn, or river he has top pair or better always.

In a recent hand, he limps, I raise JJ. Flop 358 he check/calls. Turn T, he check/calls. River 2, he check/raises. I call. I had not seen him check raise ever before. He had T3 and turned 2 pair. Later I saw him check raise another player on the river.

old reg limps, Hero raises AcKc on btn, BB calls, old reg calls

Flop: AQ5r
check, check, Hero bets, old reg calls

Turn: J
old reg checks, Hero bets, old reg calls

River: K
old reg checks...

also, if a mod wants to help me out, i was "the paystation" before the forums got hacked but the email address I had for that account no longer exists.
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Old 06-16-2012, 03:41 AM   #2
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Re: simple river decision

Bet then make a decision if raised. If you think there is any chance that he is making a play at you given current table image, then bet/call. If you think he isn't capable of it, bet/fold.
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Old 06-16-2012, 04:17 AM   #3
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Re: simple river decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by energy efficiency View Post
if a mod wants to help me out, i was "the paystation" before the forums got hacked but the email address I had for that account no longer exists.
Do any of you guys bother reading the sticky threads? Serious question. If not, I'll just take them down to create more space on the front page.
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Old 06-16-2012, 12:18 PM   #4
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Re: simple river decision

What Nate said, but if villain is really loose-passive, they aren't making a play. Bet/fold.
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Old 06-18-2012, 04:05 PM   #5
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Re: simple river decision

I like Bet/Fold. I'd be more concerned about him C/R worse than making a play, but I have serious doubts he will do either.

Given you saw him slowplay a turned hand early, his range will be even more heavily weighted to monsters than usual when he C/R's the river (though it doesn't apply much in this case.)
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Old 06-19-2012, 10:52 AM   #6
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Re: simple river decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by energy efficiency View Post
I have a short history with the villain. He is an old LP reg. He will call down with second pair no kicker frequently. When he bets the flop, turn, or river he has top pair or better always.

In a recent hand, he limps, I raise JJ. Flop 358 he check/calls. Turn T, he check/calls. River 2, he check/raises. I call. I had not seen him check raise ever before. He had T3 and turned 2 pair. Later I saw him check raise another player on the river.

old reg limps, Hero raises AcKc on btn, BB calls, old reg calls

Flop: AQ5r
check, check, Hero bets, old reg calls

Turn: J
old reg checks, Hero bets, old reg calls

River: K
old reg checks...

also, if a mod wants to help me out, i was "the paystation" before the forums got hacked but the email address I had for that account no longer exists.
grunch

So you think that he would you raise you here with a smaller 2p? Does he hand read? Probably not... meh --- It's really close .... We're ahead of his cc'ing range: KQ QJ AQ AJ A5 K5 however we are behind quite a few combos of T: TT (would he raise this pf?) T9 JT KT QT AT T8 and 55 ... otherwise it's a pretty easy bf becuase this board kills your pf raising range and old farts aren't usually check raising without having a set or better here. FWIW I would probably snap call if you had a set in this spot... is this a leak? I just don't like folding sets

It's a really tough spot if you get raised imo... if I have 2p (sometimes AA or TPTK) or better and I have to tank and count combos hand ranges etc and I'm HU (EDIT: AND IT'S CLOSE) - I just usually err on the side of calling just because I like having the image of being a showdown monkey.

Last edited by nonsimplesimon; 06-19-2012 at 11:04 AM.
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Old 06-19-2012, 11:58 AM   #7
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Re: simple river decision

Ez b/f. If he's dumb enough c/r a worse 2p God bless him. I don't think guys like this are ever bluffing this river.
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Old 06-19-2012, 11:43 PM   #8
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Re: simple river decision

Super easy bet/fold IMO. Hard for him to have a T, unless he has AT, QT, or T5 (lol).

Would he basically peel this flop w/ any A, Q, 5, sans set, and KJ/KT/JT?

Then I still think you're way ahead of his flop and turn calling range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,663,897 games 4.239 secs 3,931,091 games/sec

Board: Ad Qc 5s Jh Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.069% 79.33% 00.74% 13219991 123041.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 19.931% 19.19% 00.74% 3198402 123043.50 { A2s+, KTs+, K5s, Q5s+, JTs, J5s, T5s, 95s, 85s, 75s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, K5o, Q5o+, JTo, J5o, T5o, 95o, 85o, 75o, 65o }
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Old 06-20-2012, 01:37 PM   #9
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Re: simple river decision

JDR, villain is not calling this river with 5x. At least, I would be shocked if he did.
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Old 06-20-2012, 10:36 PM   #10
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Re: simple river decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slide View Post
JDR, villain is not calling this river with 5x. At least, I would be shocked if he did.
I just calculated hands I think he might peel the flop with FWIW.
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